Video Games, Sausage Rolls, and Knee-Jerk Sells: $TTWO, $GRG, $IREN (E148)

GTA VI ships in November and everyone knows it will be enormous — which is exactly why Monkey lands on neutral for $TTWO: expectations and impact are two different things, and Take-Two hasn't posted an operating profit since 2022. Badger returns to his Greggs position after 14 months and admits the defensive thesis may be broken, and the episode opens with a masterclass in NOT panic-selling from the IREN earnings reaction.

🎮 Should you buy $TTWO before GTA VI? The Fiscal.ai chart: revenue up and to the right, operating margin at −2% 📉 "Take-Two has not actually been operating profitable since 2022" — four straight losing years 💰 The real bet is GTA Online, and the market has already taken its bow 🧠 The philosophical turn: Plato on imitation, whether 60 hours in GTA shapes character, and "okay, boomer" 🥐 Badger's Greggs confession: shop count up, like-for-like sales collapsing 22.4% → 2.1% 📊 ROCE falling while the estate grows — a capital-cycle bet now, not a defensive income stock ⚡ IREN: how NOT to react to a violent earnings call, and why knee-jerk sellers lost in ten minutes 🎯 "If the thesis seems to be broken and you decide to sell, that's a rational decision, not an emotional one"

Segments:

00:00 Cold open 00:41 Intro — back from Italy, catch-up 06:11 Being classy vs being greedy (the X spat, Anduril) 13:26 Welcome new Patreons — Joe, Ben, the Arctic Cod 15:36 $IREN: handling a volatile earnings call without panic-selling 24:27 $TTWO / GTA VI — the whole segment 27:34 The Fiscal.ai chart: no operating profit since 2022 33:04 The TradingView chart: six sideways years, then momentum 37:32 What games do to us: Plato, escapism, "okay boomer" 01:07:22 Should you invest in Greggs? $GRG 01:09:48 The Greggs chart: shops up, like-for-like down 01:20:19 Close — Fiscal.ai, become a beast of an investor

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