Episode 154
SpaceX Caused $ASTS To Fall 16% Intraday. Did The Market Get It Wrong? (E154)
16 October 2026
Luke calls in from a hotel in Crete with a glass of the house honey ale, and Monkey needs one: on Thursday night SpaceX agreed to buy a block of low-band spectrum, T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon fell on Friday, and $ASTS went dropped 16% with them. Monkey argues the market got it backwards, because the carriers just lost their other options, and walks through a one-week call he bought as the stock climbed back. Luke use a reverse DCF to answer two viewers who asked why he trimmed $CRWD, then explains why he bought Brookfield $BN.
🛰️ SpaceX agrees to buy 800 MHz spectrum; T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon fall 10 to 13% 📉 Why $ASTS fell with them, and Monkey's case that its hand got stronger 🎟️ Monkey's $50 one-week call: the 15-minute chart, card counting vs gambling 🤖 Why prices swing harder than ever, according to Monkey 📷 Axon and the backlash against cameras everywhere 🚀 Could SpaceX swallow Tesla? Monkey's theory and Luke's 50% haircut ✂️ Luke's CrowdStrike trim: two viewer questions and Peter Lynch's flowers and weeds 🧮 $CRWD Reverse DCF (the growth today's price assumes) 🏗️ $BN Brookfield Corp: an insurance arm that reminds Luke of early Berkshire 🐣 Starter positions, and why perfection can be the enemy of the good
SEGMENTS 00:00 Cold open 00:38 Intro: SpaceX, $ASTS, Brookfield and a $CRWD reverse DCF 2:19 King of the Jungle year three: close, and now it ain't close 02:59 Monkey's worst day, and the banana hat 04:46 Live by the sword: concentrated vs diversified 05:16 Why prices swing harder than ever, and who moves them 10:02 SpaceX moves on 800 MHz spectrum 12:37 T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon fall 17:01 Know the company: T-Mobile's options and AST's leverage 20:05 Luke: take stock, my friend 21:11 A golden moment? Over-aggressive or overly passive 23:05 Monkey's March calls and the 15-minute chart 29:53 Monkey's end game for $ASTS, and options flow 34:54 A viewer's question; Axon and the backlash against cameras 37:59 Could SpaceX swallow Tesla? $TSLA $SPCX 40:14 Trimming CrowdStrike $CRWD based on its Reverse DCF valuation 47:30 How expensive is too expensive; AI and cybersecurity? 49:35 $BN Brookfield: the empire and its insurance arm 53:03 Starter positions: don't let perfection be the enemy of the good 54:40 Fiscal.ai and sign-off
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