AST Space Mobile $ASTS Deep Dive (E143)

This week, we took the long, scenic, cosmic route through AST SpaceMobile, a company we think has a real shot at mattering — both for the problem it solves and for the investors who don't fall off the drunken-price-action rollercoaster.

This five hour epic episode goes deep, don't miss the full hour heated bull vs bear debate that answers the question, should you invest in $ASTS?

Segments: 00:00:00 PART 1: THE GAP — Abel's phone call 00:03:16 90% of Earth, 3bn people, no signal 00:07:30 Fishermen, M-Pesa and GDP growth 00:11:04 When Wire Was King: the AT&T years 00:15:49 The case against universal coverage

00:22:15 PART 2: THE GRAVEYARD — all dead 00:23:15 Five companies, $17bn, no survivors 00:24:58 Iridium: the $3,000 brick phone 00:29:04 Globalstar and Apple's SOS 00:32:35 LightSquared, Ligado and the FCC 00:37:20 The handset trap and spectrum trap 00:39:55 Rocket Lab buys Iridium $RKLB

00:41:46 PART 3: ABEL — one man's company? 00:42:25 45, rich, one impossible problem 00:44:36 No salary, $50m in, 71.6% control 00:58:51 The Kerrisdale short, answered 01:05:20 Wisniewski: the banker who quit 01:11:03 Mikitani, Rakuten and the call

01:15:30 PART 4: THE SCIENCE — the physics 01:16:58 What is light? Faraday and Maxwell 01:25:46 170x further away, 29,000x weaker 01:30:36 223 sq m vs Starlink and Iridium 01:35:54 Phased arrays: 20,000 antennas 01:43:43 The bent pipe: dumb satellites win

01:56:23 PART 5: THE BIRDS — the hardware 01:58:20 Block 2: 6 up, 7 lost, 8-10 flying 02:04:48 Inside the Midland factory 02:07:05 The only chart that matters 02:14:59 The Tesla Model 3 ramp lesson $TSLA

02:18:57 PART 6: SPECTRUM WARS — invisible 02:26:54 Don't buy spectrum, partner for it 02:28:49 Ligado: $550m for $9-27bn of value 02:37:46 1,150 MHz vs T-Mobile's 5 02:43:35 Japan picks AST, Europe follows

02:49:32 PART 7: THE BUSINESS — the model 02:50:18 AST doesn't sell you anything 02:53:52 $10 a month, split 50/50 02:54:44 Scrooge McBadger objects 03:04:42 Are 90% margins credible? 03:07:04 The hidden business: defence

03:12:31 PART 8: THE COMPETITION 03:14:11 T-Satellite live: 16 million users 03:15:22 Amazon buys Globalstar $AMZN 03:20:55 Wild card: Starlink V3 and Starship 03:27:01 Badger: it's a commodity 03:32:56 China and India carve up a quarter

03:39:40 PART 9: THE MONEY 03:41:29 Valuation today is a fool's errand 03:45:22 Burn rate, and how dilution hurts 03:46:36 The billion dollar raise 03:49:46 Bears: zero. Bulls: a trillion

03:52:22 PART 10: BULL VS BEAR 03:52:56 The bull case: Abel's July tweet 03:59:46 Space AI edge computing 04:03:30 The bear concedes the technology 04:05:59 Bear: European regulatory approval 04:13:43 Bear: hostage to a rival's rockets 04:37:18 Bear: the space mob is a risk 04:39:26 Shout-outs: Kook, Anpanman, CatSE 04:49:12 The Badger reveal 04:53:21 The bookend, and the 911 call

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