Episode 152
$AMZN Conviction Check and $NKTR Takeover Odds +$MRLN $LINK $PRCT (E152)
2 October 2026
Monkey combs through the losers at the back of his King of the Jungle portfolio and asks whether you should add on big drops. He never added to $MRLN, now down close to 80%, and says that was right; but holding back on Chainlink cost him a double. Badger reviews Thomas Chua's The Lunch Break Investor, and reflects on his own $NIKE misstep. After Monkey's $NKTR update on the Lilly verdict, Badger stress-tests his own high-conviction $AMZN position against the capex bill and the rise of shopping agents. š Monkey bought $MRLN at about $8, already 50% off the top, and never added as it kept falling š Chainlink gave him a technical buy signal in early September; he passed and $LINK doubled š§¬ $NKTR won $90m from Lilly at trial, a tenth of the $1bn some investors had hoped for. Monkey says about $1bn in cash lasts to mid-2028, and he puts the buyout odds above 50% š The Lunch Break Investor says wealth compounds like bamboo (a simile, Monkey points out) š Luke owns his $NIKE call: the direct-to-consumer pivot handed shelf space to rival brands š¦ On $AMZN, ads topped $76bn over the last 12 months and AWS brought in $148bn at a 39% margin š¤ Luke's worry: shopping agents like $META's Muse won't be lured by Amazon's ads
SOURCES The Lunch Break Investor: https://steadycompounding.com/the-lunch-break-investor/ Best Stock Market Podcasts For Beginners (we're number nine!): https://podcast.feedspot.com/stock_market_podcasts_for_beginners/
SEGMENTS 00:00 Cold open 00:32 Intro: big drops and Nektar from Monkey, Amazon from Badger 01:06 WSOP Malta: the poker Badger never played 04:12 Big drops: why Monkey didn't average down 06:11 $MRLN: correct not to add 09:43 Chainlink: a mistake not to add 15:00 Live stablecoin question and the November 10x revisit 20:12 $PRCT and $OPEN: same rule, the first bite is enough 21:20 The Lunch Break Investor: compounding like bamboo 27:00 Brand as a verb, and Badger's Nike confession 33:19 Spawners vs diworsifiers: AWS and the Fire Phone 37:26 Should you buy $NKTR? The update after the Lilly verdict 43:49 $NKTR Q&A: adding, and biotech buyout premiums 48:20 Should you buy $AMZN? Two businesses under one roof 52:11 Capex eats free cash flow again, and the Anthropic bet 56:01 Agentic commerce: Meta's Muse and Amazon's ad business 01:00:29 Monkey shares the capex worry; why Google's first-party data is different 01:07:25 Left field: Meta, $ASTS, Starship and Monkey's big call 01:12:07 Fiscal.ai thanks and sign-off
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