E87: Networking, “The Big Beautiful Bill,” and two 100%+ Stock Wins in two months!

⚡ Is the market facing an energy crisis? A controversial new bill threatens to decimate the renewable sector, and we’re unpacking what it means for your portfolio. Does chaos create opportunity this time around?

🔋 Krzysztof’s 100%+ Winner – how Krzysztof navigated the psychological challenges of buying the dip at $6.26, turning doubt into a double in two months. Hear about this AI / Bitcoin / Energy bottleneck play that’s now his third-largest King of the Jungle portfolio holding

📡 Luke’s 100% Winner – investor enthusiasm for this space tech company propels it to a $16 billion valuation. Is this ambitious bet on satellite-to-phone connectivity the next rocket ship, or just a black hole for cash?

📊 The Damodaran Framework: Story vs Numbers – Using the “Three Ps Test” (Possible, Plausible, Probable) to evaluate pre-revenue companies. How to invest in stories without falling into hopium traps

🧮 Quantum Computing Reality Check – Luke buys more quantum computing puts. These “companies” trade at $3 billion market caps, but do they have a plausible business model?

🎯 Risk Management Masterclass – Different approaches for different life stages: Luke’s disciplined 2% allocation to AST vs Krzysztof’s conviction-sized positions in pre-revenue plays

🌐 The Power of Investor Networking, and why teaching family and friends to invest can improve your own results

Segments:
00:00 Introduction
08:03 Networking with Investors
15:24 Teaching Family to Invest
17:12 The Big Beautiful Bill Energy Crisis
29:53 Krzysztof’s 100% winner: Psychology of Buying the Dip
38:13 Luke’s 100% winner: Is this Pre-Revenue Company Growing too Fast?
52:17 Portfolio Philosophy: Risk vs Reward
54:05 Quantum Computing Shorts: Entertainment Trades
59:56 Damodaran’s Three Ps Framework
01:07:00 Clear-Eyed Investing vs Hopium

 WSW – Video – E87 – No Ads

[00:00:00] Luke: if you follow like a very well tried and tested path and you invest in quality companies and you just kind of hold them for a long time and don’t panic you will create life changing wealth 

[00:00:09] Krzysztof: You’re beginning to start the journey, which could change lives and families and generations. 

[00:00:15] Luke: if you are, say, a parent and you get investing started for your kids and you get ’em interested, well, they’re more likely to become savers and not rely on the bank of mom and dad 

[00:00:24] Krzysztof: to put it into perspective, these companies actually don’t make anything. Literally, like there’s nothing no, there, there, really on top of everything you’ve said.

[00:00:33] Luke: They’re gonna put into orbit, like the largest single thing we’ve ever put into orbit as one piece. And they have to like unfold it.

Like there are some things that we haven’t done as a species and they’re gonna be doing it

first. 

[00:00:50] Luke: On this week’s Wall Street Wildlife, the power of networking with other investors. We’re also taking a look at a couple of highly speculative, mostly pre-revenue hypergrowth companies. How we think about these in our portfolio. What does Aswath Damon have to say about investing in pre-revenue companies?

And the big beautiful bill is causing waves in the Senate. It’s coming for a vote by 4th of July. What does this mean for our energy investments? Christophe, how are you buddy?

[00:01:23] Krzysztof: I am excited to be driving kind of for the first time in Europe. I leave, uh, from Poland and try to make my way down to Sicily via I. I guess Poland, Czech, CZE, the Czech Republic, and then, uh, through Vienna, Austria, and then over to, uh, Genoa. But it occurred to me that other than, uh, my uncle taking me to the racetrack this past week, he was, my uncle was a former, uh, race car driver.

So he kind of schooled me on like what, what it’s like to really drive a car fast across curves and whatnot. I nearly put my pants, but it occurred to me that I never really drove, uh, in Europe before, other than Sicily, kind of like here and there, but like, you know, so school me, what do I need to know?

Drive on the left side of the road. Right.

[00:02:15] Luke: The left, the, yeah, like the American side of the road. You’re good. I mean, check your geography. I’m not a geographer. Are those countries right? Is Austria on the way, isn’t it? The other direction.

[00:02:25] Krzysztof: Austria is south, so I know we’ll be stopping in Vienna. That’s our first stop.

[00:02:30] Luke: Fair enough. Fair enough, fair enough. Are you driving uncle’s, Jaguar, what are you taking?

[00:02:35] Krzysztof: No, I’m actually, we invested in a, in the smaller car as we possibly could for the Sicilian roads. So we got a, a small little, uh, Toyota, uh, something or other Iago, igo, something like that. Because in the, in the ’cause in this, in this the selling roads, you really can’t have a, a big car. You’ll get stuck.

Stuck like a donkey in a cart.

[00:02:56] Luke: I dunno, like I, I, it depends if you wanna like treat the v like a racetrack and be overtaking everything or just kind of cruising and enjoying like the wind in your hair.

[00:03:06] Krzysztof: yeah, no, uncle would not let me take the Jag.

[00:03:10] Luke: Okay. Alright. Uh, I don’t, I dunno that I’ve got any top tips. Yeah, take your time. Enjoy the journey. Maybe if you have the time, stay off of like, the auto routes and the auto barns and like use the small roads. ’cause you’ll save a ton of cash on tolls. I know you are American, so you’re used to tolls.

They can be really expensive. Um, like I, I, we hit some tolls on the motorbikes last year and I think it was like 30 or 40 euros just for like one section, A road for a bike that’s like, I had no idea they’d inflated so hard. That’s really expensive. Um, like, don’t stop in. Yeah. This, okay. Good, good. Top tip for Europe and the uk, like if you’re going to eat somewhere, don’t stop in like one of those.

Like highway services places ’cause they’re just junk and they’re overpriced and find like a beautiful village somewhere, you know, off the beaten track. Go, go gas up the car and uh, you know, find some little cafe thing. Um, that’d be a much nicer, authentic experience. 

[00:04:08] Krzysztof: Okay. So you’re equally at home, uh, on both sides of the pond, and I suppose, uh, Asia too, uh, is, is there a fundamental big difference between driving, you know, across the US versus driving across Europe? Is, is it kind of the mostly the same feeling? 

[00:04:25] Luke: Most of my us driving is in like snowy winter mountains and so, you know, that’s how I formed my opinion, uh, which is that US drivers are among the worst in the world. Um, so, uh, like you guys drive too close and too fast on the highways and I know your freeway thing where everyone can like overtake on every side.

And there seems to be no appreciation about like stopping distances and like planning, which is why I’m always seeing like in the ice, I’m seeing like vehicles back to front on the highway. ’cause someone’s clearly been going way too quick. They’ve got a bit ahead of their skis and then they’ve spun the car trying to do whatever emergency emo.

You don’t see that sort of stuff. In Europe very often people are better drivers, but say in Italy they’re fast drivers. So, you know, and on the big roads, be aware of people doing well. Like some of ’em are. There’s no speed on it. So be aware of if you think you’re going quick, there’s always someone else like doing twice your speed.

[00:05:19] Krzysztof: Oh, see, this is fascinating. You say that because. just driving in Italy, I thought almost the opposite. I mean, in Italy people are, it’s almost, I, I don’t know if the UK is that much different from, or maybe it’s just Sicily, but my God, in Italy, people are like tailgating each other within millimeters.

Uh, but they’re paying attention. So it seems like it’s kind of a way more aggressive form of driving than I’ve ever encountered in the us. Uh, but the difference between left and right lanes are quite like known. And no one’s texting in Italy. Everyone’s just like, kind of like really driving. So anyway.

[00:05:57] Luke: okay. Yeah, that’s, yeah, that’s fair. I think different kinds of slightly sketchy driving like the, the British drivers are among the best in the world. I was thinking this the other day actually, like, uh, because I, I, I can rib you about American drivers, like we should try and do each other’s driving test and like I guar, I’m confident I could pass the US driving test with almost no preparation, just understanding what I need to do.

I’m similarly confident that you would fail three times minimum. Most Americans fail three times before they pass the UK driving test.

[00:06:27] Krzysztof: Really? Hmm.

[00:06:29] Luke: Yeah.

[00:06:29] Krzysztof: Huh. 

[00:06:30] Luke: It’s, it requires you to actually be able to drive and maneuver and do like three point turns and reversing around corners and actually understand what all the signs say.

It’s tough as appropriately tough.

[00:06:40] Krzysztof: Oh, okay. Well, I thought it was enough to know which side of the road you’re, you need to drive on and then you’re good. Which, which one? I drove in UK by the way. this is saying obvious, but my God, like, it’s so scary the first couple days because of every instinct, you know, like the, the, the subconscious part of you that’s not really thinking in moments realizes, holy shit, I’m on the wrong side.

And then going on to the. Makes it rain. Like, you know, like everything curled up inside, like, oh my God, I’m going onto oncoming traffic. It’s like not a joke, uh, until you, you anyway. Okay. 

Audio

[00:07:19] Luke: driving in? I haven’t done it myself, but there’s like a road in China as you come from mainland China into Macau. So Macau and Hong Kong drive on like the British side, the left and China drives on the right. So there’s like some crazy junctions where you cross the border where you literally like swap from one side of the road to the other.

Cool stuff.

[00:07:38] Krzysztof: yeah. Okay. Well, fingers crossed that I, I make it from, from Poland down back, down to Sicily. Uh, if this is my last show with you, it’s been a good run.

[00:07:47] Luke: Great stuff. Good. Anyway, and I, I promise listeners, I will not rag on American drivers anymore. We’ll put that topic behind us.

[00:07:56] Krzysztof: To be determined. So, uh, rumor has a, you’ve been hobnobbing with, uh, with some listeners,

[00:08:03] Luke: I have, I had lunch with Paolo, uh, who’s one of our OG Patreons, and he’s such an OG Patreon. He actually bought, uh, a, a Patreon membership for his cousin as well, who is trying to encourage to become an investor and sort of think about investing. So I’m hopefully hoping they’re both listening to this. So straight outta the gate.

Thank you very much, Paolo for a delightful lunch at a very nice joint in central London. Uh, I got a ton out of it and I mean, I will say I, I don’t wanna go sort of too deep into specifics about Paolo’s life, but he and I are very aligned. We’ve had a similar kind of career trajectory. Uh, we are interested in similar things and, uh, we both sort of navigated the way into.

Uh, sort of financial independence and retirement in very, very similar ways. And, uh, and we’re both, I think, very much enjoying this lifestyle. So it was great. And we got to over lunch as well as swapping like life stories. We got to chat about a whole bunch of investments and we were invested in very similar things, which is unsurprising because he kind of found us, I think he actually found us because he was a fan of yours originally, Christophe, when you were, I think possibly when you were like CMF Monkey at the Motley Fool.

So, um, so yeah, I mean, good stuff for like, bringing together people of similar interests and now, uh, like actually swapping dd. And I do wanna give a shout out a bit later in today’s episode to one of our Patreons who brought an incredible investment to our attention, which is now, like for me, a double in two months.

So, uh, that’s valuable.

[00:09:42] Krzysztof: Yeah, getting to know actual people, uh, on, on the, on the humane level is so important. Uh, I’ve talked, we’ve talked about this nonstop, like the building of trust and doing this thing together. I have a question for you, as you were telling me that it’s so counterintuitive in so many ways that. When we talk about how life-changing investing can be, how it still seems so hard to convince people to just take those basic steps and start, and I have a theory why it almost seems like people are used to some version of it’s too good to be true.

Like, oh, sure, those guys did it, or, sure, those guys got lucky, or Sure. Like, but that’s not for me, or it’ll never work for me. Or some, some sort of weird thing. And I think that’s why getting to know people individually can help maybe overcome that, uh, resistance or whatever it is. But it, but my, my hypothesis would be family members should be more easily con not convinced, but like, um, open to trying investing if they haven’t and yet.

It’s not like it’s not the easiest thing in the world to, I don’t know. What do you think?

[00:11:08] Luke: No, I totally agree. And actually I’m glad you asked that question because like Paolo is also independently doing something that I’ve been doing for quite a long time. He’s, he’s trying to teach his family and his close friends by actually leading them on the journey. So I’ve done this for the last 10 years for a bunch of family members and I rolled it out to a whole bunch of friends’, kids this Christmas Paolo’s done the same thing.

He’s basically bought an investment gift for some younger family members and then they’ve made, you know, an investment decision and he’s kind of putting his capital at risk, but showing them over time, like the power of investing, it’s not a scam. You can make mistakes and you can lose your money, but if you follow like a very well tried and tested path and you invest in quality companies and you just kind of hold them for a long time and don’t panic like it, you will create life changing wealth and you’ll be investing, you’ll be retiring in your forties like Paolo and I did.

[00:12:09] Krzysztof: Yeah, so I, I wanna make this concrete, anyone listening to, to us right now, I would pause and ask what one family member do you think you could say, take out to lunch and say, okay, you know, I, I can help you take the first step. ’cause it’s, it’s, it’s, if it remains abstract, you’re never gonna do it. But if you think, oh, my sister or my brother, or my cousin, or my second cousin, or whomever, they might be open, and you actually take that step.

You’re beginning to to, you know, start the journey, which could change lives and families and generations. So. Really encourage you to think about it concretely and then take that step and introduce them to like, say one basic principle or how to open an account with something like public.com. Um, and, you know, and, and start, help them start.

[00:13:05] Luke: and this could be advantageous to you as well in a couple of ways, right? So, I mean, not the least of which, if you are, say, a parent and you get investing started for your kids and you get ’em interested, well, they’re more likely to become savers and not rely on the bank of mom and dad when they get to like their thirties or something.

Like, you’re sort of off, you know, maybe you’re mitigating future costs, but if you can get your friends interested in investing and if they have different, like subject matter expertise or things they’re passionate about, this can actually be directly helpful to you as an investor. I, I don’t wanna turn this into like the shout outs episode, but I got a message on X from, uh, a follower m and m.

Uh, basically said like. Thanks for doing this content, really enjoying like Wall Street Wildlife and the, and the stuff that you guys are doing. Um, he’s in Brazil and he’s a big fan of Mercado Libre and so he uses it like almost every day. A bit like my use of Amazon locally. And I found that fascinating.

We had like a short conversation, but it’s, I can’t use Mecado re where I live, right? And it’s a major part of my portfolio and I love to get personal experience of the companies I own, maybe apart from the medical technology ones. Um, and so if someone else who is like a trusted voice who clearly understands investing in the market, if they’re using these companies and they’re happy with them, that helps me reinforce my own understanding investment thesis.

So, you know, if you can get. A buddy interested and they’re interested in, you know, fashion or some other domain that doesn’t light your fire. Maybe once they become an investor, one day they’ll start sharing due diligence back with you that might help your investing in the future.

[00:14:52] Krzysztof: Exactly. Yeah, it’s the network effect. Uh, so I’m glad. Yeah, you got the, you got that cool sweet message from m Only big problem is that he severely underestimates, uh, humble monkey and, uh, uh, MM brother. You gotta, you gotta take a closer look at what monkey’s going on over there. Don’t listen to badgers smack talk. Take a look at the actual, uh, results that monkey’s putting up on the board.

[00:15:24] Luke: Well, hey, like, uh, we, you can’t argue with EM’S allegation or comment that I can’t seem to agree with Chris on any of his mad strategies. Like, okay, you might be making money, but they are kind of mad strategies.

[00:15:38] Krzysztof: I see a banana and I, I grab a banana and then I eat a banana. What’s so wild and crazy about that? Uh, but I do wanna talk about later in this episode. Uh, specifically, um, it, it, that comment kind of triggered, uh, something I want to talk about in the inside of one of my recent King of the Jungle purchases and why it might look mad on the surface and why it’s hard to pull off.

But, uh, you know, so that’ll be, uh, just down the road after we finish talking about our next topic, uh, I think we can move on, uh, to the current kerfuffle going on with, uh, the big beautiful bill that’s being, uh, voted on, I think in the next couple days. Trump wants to pass it by 4th of July, and so I’m really interested in this because it impacts energy in the United States on a massive scale.

And the current headlines are, um, look pretty grim for basically all renewables. So Elon took to X saying this is just completely asinine and backwards. And in summary, it does seem like this is a bill that’s gonna favor the legacy industries like gas and, uh, coal at the expense of the rate of growth of all the future renewables, like solar, wind, and potentially battery.

Though I don’t think that’s actually the case. 

[00:17:12] Luke: I don’t, I dunno the specifics of the bill, um, I dunno, I dunno if you can bring some of it to life for us, but like we are at this transition point, I guess in society where, um, like we still need so much energy that we, we need like the legacy non-renewable stuff right now, but we’re in this transition and like it’s more economically.

Viable to use renewables. Like it’s becoming the cheapest form of power. We just don’t have enough of it. So if this bill is literally like pulling the incentives for renewables and maybe adding, you know, creating positive incentives for non-renewable, well that’s just ass about face, right? You should be going the other way.

‘ cause you need, you need non renewables. No argument, well, we can’t be turning off like coal plants and stuff, but you don’t wanna incentivize building more of them.

[00:18:06] Krzysztof: right. No, that’s exactly right. And one of the clips I listened to was a senator, Republican senator from, I believe it was North Carolina, saying he’s ready to vote against his own party because of how Aine and had asked backwards it is to basically start cutting the incentives for the way we make more energy in this country.

The fact of the matter is, I mean I, it really is, I mean this really does seem to be, um. I don’t know how else to say it. If this bill passes in its current form as though idiots running the country, only acting in their own self-interest at the cost of the greater good for the country, for the foreseeable future, because we know that we need more energy than ever.

All of AI and national security depends on us getting more energy and that things, including not excluding old stuff, but the new stuff is kind of limitless. So if you disincentivize things like solar and wind, you’re basically, uh, sabotaging yourself. For what? For, yeah, for, for the, the greed, uh, I don’t know.

I’m calling the greed of legacy players. Um, so it’s completely asinine in the fact that it’s becoming a bipartisan kind of. You know, they’re calling it, it, it a bipartisan issue. Um, I’m cautiously, uh, I, I don’t wanna say optimistic, but I’m cautiously, I, I can see further changes being made before the bill passes from its current state.

And so as one number, just to throw one number out there, um, it’s currently being said that it will slash as it stands, this bill would slash 57 to 72% of new projects, by 2035 by cutting, uh, tax credits by 2028.

[00:20:15] Luke: 57% of renewable projects, so like solar farms and tidal and that sort of stuff. Wind.

[00:20:22] Krzysztof: Exactly. Uh, which risks also hundreds of thousands of jobs. In US factories based on solar projects that are already also underway. So, um, just, yeah, really, really backwards looking, uh, in this moment. And, and, you know, I’m curious to see what the, uh, Elon effect is going to be because he’s being, you know, this is another one of these rifts between him and Trump, and he’s going back on the attack saying this is just absolutely ridiculous that this kind of, um, bill could potentially pass for my own portfolio.

Uh, I’m looking at this very carefully because obviously EOS is sort of at the cross crosshairs and net net. I actually think this is bizarrely positive for eos because, uh, as a battery company, even if the supply for overall energy goes down, batteries, storage batteries are what will make the energy that is produced more usable and more.

It kind of, it’s the middleman that will help utilities sort of, uh, balance the power that is made. So the battery storage people will be fine no matter what. It’s just that you, you don’t need that kind of, it’s still stupid. Right, because, um, I 

[00:21:46] Luke: I disagree. I disagree, I’m afraid. Let me challenge that head on, ’cause I’ve, I haven’t thought about this in advance, but like, the reason you need static battery, like grid scale batteries is because renewables are. They fluctuate. You know, like the sun only shines in the daytime, the wind only blows at certain times.

Um, and you can’t rely on them being like consistent. So you need batteries ’cause they spread like they smooth out the, the supply and then you can serve your demand. Uh, but if you have non renewables like oil and gas where you can, it, it’s consistent. You can have as much as you turn on. So if your energy supply is a higher proportion of reliable, consistent non renewables, you don’t need as many batteries.

I.

[00:22:34] Krzysztof: sure. But this is why this is, uh, almost a tragic case of what’s happening. The difference between the supply and demand is so great that. In the time of ai, we need so much more energy than ever before that there will not, like a company like EEO, simply will not have any issue meeting the demand quota.

They just can’t make enough batteries with the demand as is. So that’s why I’m saying they’ll be fine because we’re talking about gigawatts of deficit. I’m talking about for the greater good of the country. You know, you need a company like both Tesla and EOS and another company to be pumping out way more batteries than is even doable right now.

But you know, if we’re talking about five, 10 years down the road, this kind of thing just kills the incentive for even new players. And you know, I just, you know, as one like fun side. Thing, um, that I caught on X, you know, now there’s talk of possibly Tesla wanting to acquire eos because for 30 billion, you know, it’s just floated out there by some, some, you know, like pollsters because it does make sense, you know, like now that the battery space will need to kind of like, um, uh, get its act together, so to speak, quicker in light of these kind of detrimental incentives as the middleman that could kind of smooth it out, it would make sense for a company like Tesla to buy out eos and, and conglomerate get more scale, uh, to grid faster to come and ameliorate become a better middleman when needed.

So I don’t think it’s gonna pass ob you know, that’s just speculative stuff. But that’s kind of one of the things this bill is, is forcing companies to think about.

[00:24:30] Luke: Yeah, well look. Scary stuff. Um, in the uk, uh, we’re going in the other direction, like there’s, there’s actually some controversy in my local neighborhood because there are three very large grid scale batteries proposed, and they’re sort of coming through, like planning approval. And one of them is actually really close to where I live, and there’s a lot of concern from neighbors about the safety of some of these installations.

So I’m digging into the science around that. Um, but the, yeah, the UK is going, uh, leaning more into renewables and also leaning into nuclear. I think there’s a whole bunch of, uh, thinking around small modular reactors and maybe large reactors. I think we’re bringing size, well, c online at some point in the next couple of years, something like that.

It’s like another, we have a couple of big nuclear generation plants, so there’s like another one coming online. So. I think I felt like we’re doing the right thing and nuclear, to me seems to be the answer. Um, it’s safe, it’s scalable, like it, this is nuclear plants today. Modern ones not like 50-year-old ones are not, do not have the same risks that like Fukushima and uh, Chernobyl faced.

[00:25:42] Krzysztof: Yeah, so I believe this bill is net net positive for nuclear. Energy. But from my perspective, you know, we’re at this point, inflection point in AI where companies are need to grow as quickly as possible, and that’s entirely constrained by electricity. Uh, and so, you know, another one of these graphics, where Elon Musk says, A massive strategic error is being made right now to damage solar battery that will leave America extremely vulnerable in the future.

Marker

[00:26:14] Krzysztof: That’s in reply to Peter Dia Menez saying China by 2030 has now the opportunity to, uh, increase its lead in renewables. And then below that is, uh, another person on x uh, showing, um, a picture of realtime wholesale electricity prices. And those basically are with lower. Supply and higher demand prices will start going up, and that’s passed down to the consumer.

Uh, so this is a major, seems to me again, unequivocally a major blunder in terms of policy. But let’s see what the next three days bring. Um, that does lead me straight though, to talking about what is now my third largest king of the jungle holding, uh, iron energy. Um, and I will, here’s what I wanna say about this.

Uh, two months ago, early May, I picked up additional shares at $6 26 cents. Iron energy was, uh, posing as a Bitcoin miner. Uh. What made me interested in them initially was that they had the best, most efficient bitcoin mining because they tied it with renewable energy, but that was, its sort of surface add. They were mostly bitcoin mining, but you already knew if you went deeper that they were transitioning to becoming AI data centers, and now it’s becoming more obvious than ever that the Bitcoin mining stuff is basically just free cash flow coming in at the current Bitcoin levels.

They, they’re not holders of Bitcoin. They make the Bitcoin and they sell it, and it’s just cash showing up on their balance sheet. Their big play, their major play was to have acquired a bunch of land and start and starting all the permitting and building that takes years to execute. And now they have basically this portfolio of massive amounts of, um, um, power that’s already online with massive amounts to come online basically in 26 and 27.

And so the big, the reason this is so interesting from an investor standpoint is that we have a bottleneck in terms of AI stuff. And it’s not GPUs and it’s not basically chips, it’s actual electricity. But where are you gonna get it if it takes years to actually literally build the infrastructure? So I would say iron, I look at as I, I, I look at iron not as a Bitcoin miner, but as the the fundamental level of ai.

And so knowing that. I in for on our Patreon, uh, dolphins level trading channel. I wrote, uh, that I picked up some additional shares at 6 26 on May 1st, and then just what, six days later. I bought more shares at 6 55 and I wrote, great April update pressure from AI to get more power is increasing. IRE will land the deal sooner or later.

Uh, this referring to, uh, from some major AI player like Google or Meta or open AI remains unknown. And so I didn’t wanna wait to add while the shares were quote unquote cheap. Now here’s, here’s why I wanted to talk about this.

Marker

[00:29:53] Krzysztof: Going back and, you know, everything is obvious in hindsight because currently the shares are up more than a hundred percent.

Since I made those two trades, uh, they’re set to open near 15 a share. Uh, today as we’re recording, here’s what I remember when I made those trades badger. Um, it’s hard when, when the shares have dropped from about 14 or 15, and if you look at this graphic, it’s kind of a straight down from 15 down to about five, right?

You feel everything you know about the DD feels wrong, and it feels like you’ve made an error somehow. You know that fee. You know what I’m talking about? Like when you begin questioning your own research, and that’s why most people buy low, I’m sorry, sell high, sell low, and buy high because it’s so hard to mistrust your own.

Mind, 

And even when you’re a, like, that’s happened to me many times. And when you’re a like a professional investor, like even then you start questioning yourself, how did I get this wrong 

[00:30:59] Luke: for me? Just a sidebar into like a bit of like owls nest when, when the valuation of a cut holding I have starts falling precipitously, I don’t just panic and do something that’s just a reminder to go and recheck the thesis.

Look at the numbers again, like re reaffirm that I’m right to own this. And sometimes, not always, sometimes that will result in me adding to my position, which is what you did here.

[00:31:26] Krzysztof: right, and, uh, just so it doesn’t seem like I’m taking all the credit for this, I think the most useful aspect, the only real aspect, uh, that, that provides genuine benefit on x for me. Is that there are some investing communities that do truly outstanding work on particular companies. This is kind of like the old Motley Fool discussion boards where you have real, you know, like that group effect of people sharing their research and critiquing one another.

And so Iron is one of these companies that kind of amassed, uh, a sophisticated following of experts in infrastructure and building and licensing and AI stuff. And so that’s why I began following iron, uh, whatever over a year and change ago. So anyway, based on the back of all that due digi diligence, I, I kind of, if you look at this chart, I waited for the massive drop down to reverse because as long as the momentum starts, you know, keeps going down, down, down, that’s more likely probable outcome is it’s gonna keep going down, but then you see it kind of bottoms out and it has that little bit of a U-turn.

And then, uh, I basically bought sort of like at the bottom of that as soon as it reversed, so to speak. Now that is short term ish, and that is not the only reason I bought, but that’s like another piece of thinking in my cap, saying like, okay, all things being equal now is a good moment to, to kind of override the psychological barrier and say, no, I trust my dd the momentum has reversed.

It’s not as likely that it’s gonna keep going down further, so let me invest more now. And in hindsight, that was, uh, over a double in less than a month. Why? Because it seems more clear than ever now all this stuff we’re talking about. Energy is the bottleneck. Iron is one of the companies that has the greatest lead in providing energy for AI data, data centers.

And when they monetize that stuff, it’s gonna be, uh, cause a massive rerate even from these prices. So, the moral of the story here is what I did there was hard, it was hard to execute because I basically had to sort of like trust myself. and most people don’t do this kind of thing.

and there’s a little bit of timing involved and, you know, in hindsight I look like a genius, but there’s also a little bit of luck involved too. But anyone following us on Patreon, you know, could have. You know, saw my reasoning and then, uh, could have made a similar decision, which I think would’ve greased the wheels a little bit, you know, knowing that somebody that has done their work has taken this kind of play, rather than it being just a, you know, a kind of pure speculative bet.

So I don’t know if that that helps or if that.

[00:34:28] Luke: Yeah, it’s a good practical example like this. The last couple of months have been pretty wild, like upside, like a lot of stocks have gone crazy including like quantum computing shit codes that we’ll talk about in a minute. So you’ve gotta be careful here to analyze like is this just a company that’s kind of turned around on momentum or actually is there some fundamental reason?

But if you’ve done that work, like great stuff and you’ve reaffirmed like why you should own it, something I think you do really well is you, I forget the term you use, but like catalysts or something, you know, you know, there’s some kind of news coming up and you try and anticipate that news event and then maybe invest ahead of it.

So, and in your I ran message on the, uh, the Dolphin trading channel, uh, you said there’s like a deal sooner or later, like do you have a sense of where that might come from or when.

[00:35:21] Krzysztof: Yeah, it seems, I mean, um, what I’ve learned during these kinds of negotiations is, is that CEOs obviously are limited in what they could say publicly, but I really like Iron’s. CEO, he’s an Australian guy and he seems like a straight shooter and you know, he’s been on the record now over the last several earnings calls, like saying we are talking to many companies and this deal that’s in the pipeline is worth billions and billions of dollars, and the demand couldn’t be integrated.

So they’re sort of in the cap bird seat. So from my perspective. Uh, it’s, it’s, it’s kind of one of those any day now, but it could be tomorrow, it could be next week, it could be next month. But the, these, these massive, you know, if you’re talking about meta and they, they, they literally need more power. Iron’s going to get a pretty sweet deal out of that. So, you know, the telling thing in my message was I’m just not gonna wait. I’m not gonna get cute. I know what I know. Whether I luck out and it happens like next week or in, call it November, it doesn’t matter to me. The valuation was just way too cheap with relative to the prospects.

[00:36:34] Luke: All right. Good stuff. 

[00:36:36] Krzysztof: you know what, let, let me say one more thing. One more thing. ’cause I’ve realized I’ve now said this twice now. because the pivot is, I also bought A-A-A-S-T-S shares, um, which we’re gonna talk about, uh. Next maybe. But in both cases, with Iron, N-A-S-T-S-I wrote in the training channel, I could either wait for Big Red Day or I could just buy the shares.

Now knowing what I know now, and I chose both times not to wait and just buy, even though the market was high. And of course as soon as you buy, it feels like the shares will sell off the next day. In both these cases. In this instance, I was right and I feel like the principle is, I, like, I refrain from market timing and I acted based on fundamentals and I let the, the fates take me where they, where they would. So I hope that’s useful in, in, in some sense. I didn’t wanna get cute and wait for a better price because in this case, the better price would be a hundred percent higher had I waited.

[00:37:45] Luke: yeah. Good stuff. Yep. Yep. And you know, you don’t, you, you, it’s not black or white. Like you can, as an investor, you can buy like a little bit now, a little bit later. A little bit later. So. You know, there’s lots of ways to navigate this stuff. Um, but, but yes, you know, you do, you are always gonna feel a bit like a smirk if you are planning to buy something and then it doubles before you hit the trade button.

But, you know, that’s the, that’s the price of this game really. The emotional challenge.

[00:38:13] Krzysztof: Right? Yeah. Uh, in my mind it was just a clear line between am I market timing or am I investing based on fundamentals? And when I said I don’t wanna market time, I pulled the trigger and I got lucky, so to speak. In, in both those cases, made the luck continue, especially for all our Patreons that, you know, are, are looking at our trades and, and analyzing this stuff for themselves.

And also, MA made similar ones.

[00:38:39] Luke: like, so let’s pivot the conversation now to A-S-T-S-A-S-T Space Mobile. And I do want to kick this off by giving like a shout out and a thanks to our Patreon, Steven, I. Uh, who I think, I think I’m right to say like, he brought this to our attention or really to your attention initially.

Like, must have been start of this year. Like I was trying, just checking just now, I couldn’t see, but like around six months ago, maybe even sooner than that. And the stock has been on a tear. Like I was not a skeptic, but I was kind of pushing back as a SpaceX shareholder and we had some like, fun conversations about it and I was mostly like, just sort of baiting the bear for a laugh.

Um, but I became a shareholder of a STS in just in April. I took a sub 1% position in my portfolio. ’cause in my mind this is highly speculative. Um, and now, uh, even I’m sitting on a double. So Steven, and you must be doing really well with your A STS uh, stocks.

[00:39:39] Krzysztof: Yeah. So, uh, major props to Steven. He’s our resident, uh, over on patreon.com/wall Street Wildlife. He’s our resident, A S ts cheerleader. In fact, Steven, when I picture you flying your plane, I picture you with a S ts gear and POM ponds, so, yeah. Um, but, but also I know Steven’s position in the A STS is obviously oversized and a little bit of history.

I actually came across a STS. Uh, way before Steven brought it to our attention when it was like in the $2 $3 range, I started looking into it, but I, but at that point it was. Perfectly aligned with like the shit co company. And I had enough of that. And with regard to eos, meaning the ride was very bumpy and it was in the Valley of death, right?

It was an issue of will they or won’t they have enough financing? And I couldn’t tolerate any more of that kind of extreme risk. So I just refused to invest more, uh, based on basically risk Pro profile. But I had already done some research on it and Steven basically came to our channel and said, uh, you gotta, you gotta go back and you know, you gotta backtrack and take a look at some of the fundamentals of this company, basically get serious.

And I got serious real quick looking through all the documents and it was like, holy shit, this is like a generational thing. And not too long afterwards, I began building my S-T-S-E-A-S-T-S position for King of the the Jungle. And that’s when I started, uh, poking you in the ribs and squeezing your shoes about its technological superiority to SpaceX.

[00:41:23] Luke: Yeah. So we’ll put the SpaceX thing aside ’cause they’re not really competing, like they’re not the same thing. But I do want to compare today a STS to Rocket Lab. Um, ’cause I think there is an interesting, like they’re not competing either. They’re different companies. In fact, A STS will probably be a, a Rocket, a S Ts will be a customer of Rocket Lab most likely.

Um, so they’re like, they’re supporting each other. But I think something quite interesting here now, A STS is still highly speculative it, ultra high risk as far as I’m concerned. Like you guys who’ve got, I think Steven might have like a 20% allocation to it. Okay. I mean, that could make sense if you have like a young portfolio and you can take some massive hits.

That doesn’t make sense for a guy like me where like I live on my portfolio and the numbers have. Gotten kind of big over time. Now I’ve got an 11% allocation to Rocket Lab. And Rocket Lab are a post, like they’re become not a mature company, they’re still a growth company, but they’re becoming more mature.

They’re almost operationally income positive. They’re, they’re certainly got revenues, revenue growth is good, and they’re like, they’ve got a real proven business model with proven customers and like a whole ton of customers in the pipeline who want to use their services. And Rocket Lab today is about a $16 billion, give or take company.

Then on the other hand, you’ve got a STS, which is pre-revenue. Like they generate a tiny, tiny couple of million dollars, like nothing material. They have a, there’s a story. They have a plan, they’ve got some, they’ve put some great groundwork in. Technologically. And also in terms of the business model, like they’ve done some, probably the, the biggest advantage they have is the deals they’ve signed with like a number of the world’s biggest telecommunication providers.

And ultimately a long-term plan is A STS will put these huge satellites and orbit in low earth orbit, and then they’ll allow existing companies like Vodafone and at and t to provide like high quality, high bandwidth satellite connectivity to their own customers at marginal additional cost. So the business model, like the story is highly plausible, makes a lot of sense, but they’re still really young pre-revenue and they’ve got a whole bunch of technical hurdles to pass successfully.

And today, A STS is also a $16 billion company. So look at these two things. Rocket Lab and A STS, like they’re essentially. Give or take a few bucks, like they’re valued the same and they, my mind are wildly different in terms of maturity, improving the model. So that’s why I’m like 11% in one. But my A STS position is getting close to 2% allocation.

Now I don’t want to trim it ’cause it was so early and I really just bought it like two months ago. But at the same time, like I have to sort of maintain a bit of portfolio discipline over this one. I dunno if you’ve got any thoughts yourself.

[00:44:34] Krzysztof: I don’t disagree with anything you said in terms of, let’s say, risk, uh, management in stage of life, in terms of investing. However, I would say there’s a nuance in terms of business model. That it’s hard to, you can’t quantify it. It’s not in the numbers, but it’s, it’s pretty simple to understand that. As a fan of Rocket Lab, I, correct me if I’m wrong, I still think of it as kind of like an engineering company, like building extraordinarily difficult things like rockets and launching them and things rockets blow up and like, it’s always gonna be hard and dangerous and things will go wrong, right. In that sense.

But when I think of a STS, like, and I dig down beneath the layers of it being space, I actually think of it as much closer to a telephone company than a rocket company. Meaning my understanding of its business model is it’s gonna be a flip of the switch that when the satellites are up. We already know the technology works from the, from the satellite to the cell phone.

So that’s been proven. The margins,

[00:45:58] Luke: think they’ve proven that. I don’t think they’ve proven that as scale. So certainly they’ve like, they did some really clever thing way, way back where they put a cell phone into orbit and they had like the ground stations, they kind of inverted it. You’d normally have like the phone on earth and then the satellite, they did it the other way round.

’cause they can launch literally like a shoebox. So they’ve proven the technology, they’ve got five satellites in orbit, which are kind of smaller, but they haven’t proven the technology in terms of their huge like football field side satellite. And they have to get it into orbit. Like that’s a challenge to start with.

And they haven’t proven that. Like actually providing service to hundreds of thousands or millions of customers.

[00:46:37] Krzysztof: Maybe this is where it’s like looking at the same glass, whether it’s half full or half empty, maybe it’s, it’s a matter of perspective. I don’t see that as like a dangerous challenge to me, that just seems like an inevitable time, a certain amount of time has to pass before that’s, uh, that hurdle, so to speak.

Is, is passed. the fact that whatever,

[00:47:05] Luke: Let, okay, lemme put it this way, right a bit, lemme put it this way, which is a bit more like raw. They’re gonna put into orbit, like the largest single thing we’ve ever put into orbit as one piece. And they’ve got, they have to like unfold it. It it, we’re using some very clever proprietary like planning around how this thing will unfold.

And they have to keep that biggest thing we’ve ever put into orbit. In orbit. Like there are some things that we haven’t done as a species and they’re gonna be doing it

first. 

[00:47:34] Krzysztof: True. Okay. Granted, and for some reason I’m not worried about that. because they’ve already, yeah, they’ve already done it. And I, I don’t know, I basically trust the physicist and the engineers, like, uh, that just, I don’t know, maybe I’m being naive. That doesn’t, that’s not a concern to me. Um, and therefore to me, like five days ago, they proved, uh, their technology works with a fraction of the Army, uh, or Department of Defense.

And so I just see this as a matter of time. And then the switch flips and all of a sudden you have revenue going from zero to billions, seemingly overnight with whatever insane margins. So, um. I don’t know if this is you being more realistically, uh, skeptical or cautious about the technological difficulty and me being naive, but going back to Rocket Lab, it still feels like Rocket Lab will forever and always be in the business of rockets not blowing up, which is the really hard part and the more complicated stuff.

Whereas A STS is, it’s just a matter of time before enough of these satellites are up there and they’re gonna get them up out, up there one way or another, whether, depending on the provider, the Indian company that’s launching in July, or SpaceX or Rocket Lab or whatever, and then with whether it’s in the next half year or full year, it won’t really matter.

Sure, there might be a delay, but it’s inevitable that they’ll be up there and then it’s just a matter of. Turning the switch on and getting billions of dollars seemingly overnight. So I kind of think it’s just very, very different business models that should not be graded with the same amount of call it risk.

And that’s why I think that’s my best explanation for why both of them could be valued in the same way, even though one already is making revenue and the other isn’t.

[00:49:37] Luke: Alright, good. I think we both argued our points fairly well. Ag, who knows? And I think like this is an individual investor decision. It’s interesting actually, we reflect on where you started this bit of the conversation. You were like, I looked at this, it was highly speculative. I had so many highly speculative things in my own portfolio.

It didn’t make sense to add another one. And this is why investing is individual. ’cause I have very few highly speculative investments. I want more actively, want more. So I’m very happy with like a STS as a 2% allocation. I probably wouldn’t let it grow to a 4% allocation personally, but, um, but that could totally make sense and it could make sense to have a 10 or 20% allocation if you’ve really done the homework and you know, like you have an income and if your portfolio gets wiped out or you wipe out 20% of it, it’s not gonna impact your lifestyle.

Like that ain’t me. That would impact my lifestyle.

[00:50:30] Krzysztof: Yeah. And maybe just to be a little more rah rah, uh, I kind of feel in this moment of both space and AI development, the stocks we’ve talked about so far, uh, EOS iron and a STS, my top three in King of the Jungle, I both feel more confident than ever, which is not, it’s, it’s not even like 50%, but more confident than ever that if I never sell these.

For the next say, five years, that the gains will be exponential and that the hardest part will be both, that things go well and that I just don’t do anything because the foundations have never been stronger.

[00:51:14] Luke: And it’s great to have like a bunch of bets. ’cause even if only one of those pays off, like the upside is asymmetric, the one that succeeds, whether it’s I eos, a STS or something else, that’ll cover the losses of the others. And then if you get like a 50 bag or a hundred bagger, well, you know, that’s, that’s how investing careers are made.

[00:51:32] Krzysztof: Right. And actually this takes us for loop to, uh, EM’S comment when he was, uh, throwing mud at a poor monkey. This is why there’s subtlety in, in exactly this. There is no correct way. I. That’s why I think you and I make such a good pair is because you are teaching people how to invest in a completely, not completely, but in a significantly different context.

And there are rules and principles that you do extraordinarily well within that context. And I’m showing people how to do things in a slightly different context, and one is not better than the other. You just have to know which, which, uh, game you’re playing and or which combination is right for you.

Because usually the truth is somewhere in the middle.

[00:52:17] Luke: Yeah, exactly, exactly. Don’t trust other people like harvest a range of opinions, figure out what’s right for you. And your actual risk level and your situation in life and who’s dependent on you and what’s your kind of employment situation. And you know, from that, you will come to, uh, a more insightful position around how you should manage your own portfolio.

We talk about this stuff all the time, like if you catch this episode and you haven’t hit the subscribe button, well go hit the button. Let’s, um, let’s pivot the conversation to, um, another set of pre essentially pre-revenue companies. Uh, cars. I just added to my entertainment positions around quantum computing puts. So you might remember a few weeks ago I said, I bought TI ticket, RGTI and I bought. Like January 20, 27 puts on that one.

Well, I’ve now also bought, January, 2026, puts on QUBT, which is the company that you talked about a month or two ago who were basically like a beverage company that pivoted to quantum computing and you had some puts, but yours are kind of pretty short dated. You are out of that position. I’ve got some that are like my next birthday, so I’m hoping these are gonna print.

I do need the stock. Now. This stuff is, it’s not for amateurs and I feel like I’m a bit of an amateur in the space. So this is like entertainment money for me. Only. It’s, it’s more, I treat this more like, you know, gambling on the tennis. Um, but uh, yeah, I’ve got like a couple of thousand bucks in QUBT. I do need the share price to halve by then for this trade to make sense.

But hey, these companies in my opinion are going to zero when the tide goes out. It’s just a question of whether the tide goes out before January.

[00:54:05] Krzysztof: So this is the interesting thing when you, when you let me know, you opened up, uh, a position short on qubit. Uh, this is continuously on my radar and you are now in exactly the same position that I was when I started the short, uh, I had a six, I had a put that was six months out, and that ended up basically neutral.

I think I lost 55 bucks total. And so when I saw that you took one out, I did my, I opened up my options calculators and I looked at the charts and I was, again, very, very tempted to, to open it up again. But I reframed for the following reason, um, that this is, as I messaged you. When we’re not, not dealing with fundamentals.

To me, this is the best case, best argument for using technical analysis stuff because obviously reality and price are so widely divergent. That’s mostly the algos doing what they do in market makers and the financial gamesmanship that’s happening. And so when I look at the technical chart here, I still see nothing but basically the momentum heading up. And so that says to me that I have to wait until I see that it’s reversed enough to begin the downward journey, which of course could re reverse and all that. But I’m not, I’m not, you know, that that’s the hocus pocus stuff I’m saying. Basically, I’m going to use my, um, I, I’ll, I’ll call it patience to, to wait.

And I, I have a, what’s it called? A, uh, alert set for when quantum computing drops beneath whatever, uh, market average price. And when it does, that’s when I’m gonna join you in the trade. so yeah, I, I, I wish you luck, but I probabilities tell me that I’m going to get a better entry point, still higher with this kind of, uh, circus act. 

[00:56:10] Luke: If you could, well do, could, well do, I mean, let’s just take a look at the, at the market cap of these two companies, like they’re about $3 billion. Like they’re both essentially pre-revenue. One earns a couple of hundred thousand dollars, one earns nine bi $9 billion in the last quarter, so 9 billion if they wish $9 million.

Like, anyway. But the, the reason I think these are very different in my mind to something like a STS. Because you could say, okay, well look, these are both speculative pre-revenue companies, but I mean, go listen to our recent episode, I think two or three episodes ago where we looked at the Martin Shrek Lee debate and like, these companies are valued today.

Like, and it’s not just these two, it’s like a whole bunch of other quantum computing startups, essentially they’re valued like revenues around the corner, like they’re gonna, you know, just turn on the business model, you know, unfold the satellite and then they’re off generating revenues. These companies, this whole sector have so many hurdles to jump, and we did it in more detail the other episode, but essentially, you know, you’ve gotta do some fundamental science to figure out how to do quantum computing.

Then you’ve gotta do some really fundamental engineering to build this stuff. In a way that scales economically. And then you’ve gotta do some business model innovation to figure out how the hell you even going to it. Like you don’t, we don’t even know how we’re going to use this stuff if we have it.

’cause it seemingly only solves a very, very tight category of highly domain specific like math type problems. There are too many hurdles there for these to be real investible companies. Now, maybe in five or 10 years time they will be when we figured out some of that stuff, but they ain’t today. And so that’s why I’m very comfortable having my entertainment shorts on these two.

[00:58:11] Krzysztof: Right. So follow up on that. Uh, if I were to open up a short, I would go way beyond the January 20 sixes. I would open up the 20 sevens because yeah, even six months is too short as I found out, uh, directly myself. And just to put it into perspective, these companies actually don’t make anything. Literally, like there’s nothing no, there, there, really on top of everything you’ve said.

When I add the, the current market cap of EOS is about a billion, right? So that means this is a company that’s actually literally making batteries already and it’s valued at one third. Of these companies that might only possibly make something five years from now. That’s insane. And if you even, even to switch the analogy to a STS, if you add both of these, that’s about what, 6 billion in market cap A STS is call it.

That’s half or 40% of a STS. Right? A STS doesn’t have any revenue, but they actually have satellites in space and they have all these agreements in place and they have, you know, conversations with US senators and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. That is vastly different than, than a science project that might work five years from now.

Like vastly, vastly different. And in between the amount of dilution that shareholders are gonna experience with quantum computing stuff, especially fraudulent ones that used to be beverage companies or quasi fraudulent. However way you wanna understand, it’s not even the same thing, not even close.

That’s why I, I look forward to, to. To joining you on these shorts.

[00:59:56] Luke: Good stuff. Yes. Get back in. Get back in. Excellent. But don’t, not too much like don’t have massive exposure to these. ’cause who knows, right? The world can stay irrational longer and we can stay solvent. Um, now I know we’ve had a long episode, but I do just wanna touch on one aspect around some thinking from ASW Dam, like the dean of valuation.

This guy’s like a, a professor slash investor and he’s a very well renowned guy when it comes to how to value a company. We might go deeper into this in a future episode, but it’s just one thing I wanna pick out. And damar kind of positions, uh, people, investors as either being like numbers people or story people.

And we typically belong to one of these two groups. And like, just personally, like I was a story investor for realistically like the first 15 plus years as an investor. Like I was just investing on um, I suppose hype, if I’m really honest. And then I became a numbers investor probably. Late 20 teens. And then for the last five years, plus I focused much more on the numbers.

Um, and I think these things go hand in hand. Like you have to have both. But when you’ve got a pre-revenue company, like the ones we are debating now, like a STS and these quantum computer companies, there are no numbers. So all you have is the story. And that can be true for even mature companies like Tesla.

We’ve talked about that in the past. Like the story is so important to Tesla that it has such a, it makes it almost impossible to produce like a realistic set of financials and evaluation model. ’cause there’s so much potential in some aspects of the story. Like you may as well not even bother doing like a.

A discounted cash flow model. ’cause it ain’t gonna tell you squat when the story drives the outcome so much. But for these companies, the story is all there is. There’s no financials to look at ’cause they have no financials. And so what dam Darren says is he’s got his three Ps test. And I, I hadn’t seen this before, I quite like it.

He says, is the story possible? Is it plausible and is it probable? And I’m gonna diverge from a little bit ’cause he says, ’cause he’s the numbers guy. Uh, he says, like many stories are possible, few are plausible and only a handful are probable. Your story must answer every one of the three Ps with yes, it must be possible, plausible and probable.

Now I don’t think that’s necessarily true if you are by design deliberately investing at in very early stage companies, um. But to my mind at least, I mean you have to be clear, clear-eyed as an investor about where the story lives on that kind of spectrum. And to me, the A STS investment, it’s certainly plausible.

The business model makes sense. The engineering makes sense and I, uh, I don’t know that it’s probable, like for me, it will become probable once they actually put one of these giant satellites up and unfold it and start delivering with one of their partners in one geography. At that point it becomes probable ’cause they’ve proven it.

But at that point, like you’ve probably, well, you’ve not missed the boat as an investor, but you’ll be paying a multiple of today’s valuation, even today’s $16 billion valuation as soon as they prove it. ’cause a lot of the risk has gone away. But these quantum computing companies, like, I guess they’re possible if we are really optimistic and you know, open-minded.

It’s possible that there’s a business here that will generate. Economic value, is it plausible that these companies will get there in the next 10 years? No, it is not plausible that that will happen. It’s certainly not probable. So I like DMA Allen’s framework. It helps us get a bit more concrete about our thinking, and I think you can apply it, um, with Nuance when you’re thinking about some of these like companies that just have no numbers whatsoever.

[01:04:09] Krzysztof: Yeah. Yeah. This is great. Uh, this made me think immediately to one of my core investing principles. Hope is not an investment strategy. And, um, to that, to that point, this is curious because regarding A-S-T-S-I actually answer number three, probable as it is probable. You’re saying it, you ca you are not as confident in that, but that’s, you know.

A kind of subjectivity that is, I, I think it, it, it has to remain. It’s, it’s not, no one will ever give you a definitive answer, but I could confidently say, ask myself, am I merely hoping or am I answering all of these, you know, in that kind of increasing level of depth. And at one point, you know, like regarding, let’s say, uh, biotech, some of it is, uh, yeah, um, still stuck between two and three.

So I know for this biotech investment to work, it’s kind of, there’s, there is a little bit of hopium involved with A-S-T-S-I could say. Nope, it’s actually more matter of time. So I’m not so much as hoping as waiting, even though it, nothing’s guaranteed. But this is a great, I’m so glad you brought this to us.

This is a great refinement. I think. On top of that, are you hoping, or are you, or are you looking at things clear-eyed? 

[01:05:38] Luke: Yeah. And I, you know, I was having a debate on x, uh, last week ’cause I, we talked about it in last week’s episode. My position on like Tesla, should they use Lidar or not. And I had quite a few voices come out of the woodwork, like respective other thin twit, like Fin X names who are quite anti my position.

But my view is, look, I’m just trying to be clear-eyed about this. I’m trying to say, you know, will Tesla actually solve, uh, like robo Taxii where they deploy these things at scale reliably and they won’t be like murdering people one in every like a hundred thousand journeys with the current technology stack.

And just, you know, I think it’s useful to explore. That side of it. Explore the bear case, not just kind of shut down and go, nah, nah, nah, not listening. When other people are maybe challenging your thesis. The most useful thing, well, going back to the start of the episode, right? Networking, sharing your investment ideas with other smart people.

Ideally you have a bit of an investing background and understand like what it means to be an investor. Like that’s how you learn. And if you could, if you, if you’re having those conversations with people who believe different things to you, that’s how you learn the most. As long as you keep your ears open and like understand their position.

’cause it takes two to make a market and the bears are never exclusively right, and the bulls are never exclusively right. The truth is always somewhere in the middle.

[01:07:00] Krzysztof: Agreed. Uh, I don’t know if, uh, a poker analogy here is, uh, it would confuse things or make things clear, but even like I just immediately thought of ACEs, you know, is it possible that ACEs can win? Of course. Is it plausible they could win? Of course. Is it probable that ACEs win? Well, that begins to depend, right?

How many hands are, are in right before the flop and so forth. So even something like ACEs for that third one, um, shifts before the flop short, it’s probable after the flop, definitely you, you have to adjust and so forth, but that’s what we’re dealing with all the time. 

[01:07:37] Luke: Great stuff. Alrighty. Good episode. Good chat this week Christophe. See, you are gonna be making your way to Sicily. I hope that journey goes well for you.

[01:07:45] Krzysztof: Thank you. Next time we record, probably it will be, uh, back, uh, with me stuffing my face, uh, with banana flavored cannolis. 

[01:07:53] Luke: can I give you a task like on your road trip, get some, get some video for our Patreon of you, like cruising along and giving us like your thoughts on whichever beautiful bit of countryside you’re coming through and like tie and tie into investing in some way?

[01:08:07] Krzysztof: yeah. If I make it to an opera house in Vienna, I’ll be sure to, uh, I’ll be sure you to send some Mozart y’all your way.

[01:08:17] Luke: Well, we kicked a whole bunch of, uh, like investing research around today. We used our favorite investing tool, fiscal ai, previously known as Fin Chat. So if you, if you wanna use the same tools as we do fiscal AI slash wildlife with your handsome discount off of any subscription.

[01:08:36] Krzysztof: Are you ready to be a beast of an investor?

[01:08:41] Luke: Your journey starts here 

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