👑 Badger plays poker in Vietnam; Monkey sees an important investing lesson for ‘busting on the bubble’.
👾 Trump’s election is a 🟢 for $BTC and $LINK, legit crypto. Monkey talks about journalist Laura Shin’s article on the Dem’s regulatory mistakes
💵 Monkey wants crypto back in his King of the Jungle portfolio and found a way to do so with a new Robinhood account $HOOD
🚗 Could Tesla deliver a 100x return by 2035?
💰Monkey buys more $CHRS and $IREN for King of the Jungle, Round 2, Week 1
🔫 Badger discuss $AXON’s earnings
❓Does compounding really work? And can you retire in your forties?
❓Is it ever okay to have a position greater than 10%?
Segments:
00:00 Introduction
00:44 We’re Going All-In on Patreon!
02:19 Badger Bubbled in the Asia Poker Tour
05:03 Investing Lessons from Poker
09:39 US Election and Crypto Insights
12:08 SoFi vs Robinhood
17:40 Could Tesla Be a 100-Bagger?
28:53 King of the Jungle Update
31:18 Axon’s Steady Growth
39:02 Can I Retire In My Forties?
47:02 Should You Limit Your Exposure To Risky Stocks?
53:14 Patreon and Community Engagement
Sources:
Laura Shin on Crypto: https://time.com/7111315/kamala-harris-crypto-laura-shin-essay/
Wolf of Harcourt Street on MercadoLibre: https://www.thewolfofharcourtstreet.com/p/mercadolibre-investing-for-the-long
E54 – TSLA AXON Poker KOTJ
Krzysztof: [00:00:00] Great companies are usually very expensive, but what’s shocking is that because they’re great companies, they continue to overperform rather than the underperform. So this is another excellent test case of, Great company. Uh, I wanted to buy it. I put on my, you know, watch list and then I never did it because I was busy investing in my undervalued stuff.
Luke: Welcome to the Wall Street Wildlife podcast with Luke and Christoph. I have no idea what we’re talking about today because I am straight out of a nine hour poker tournament and my brain is frazzled. But Christoph, you have the con. What’s going on?
Krzysztof: It’s like night and day for us, huh? I wanted to thank from the bottom of our hearts to new patrons We are welcoming Aaron D. and Eric W. to the Jungle Tribe. Gentlemen, thank you. Much obliged. For the rest of you animals, we are [00:01:00] doubling down on Patreon as our community, where we’re going to grow our inside tribe. So, premium content coming soon.
Check us out at patreon. com slash wallstreetwildlife. Oh
Luke: And I will say, like we say premium content, but being transparent, there’s going to be a lot of bullshit on the Patreon, I think. This is you and I. We’re going to use the Patreon to be like our authentic selves. I know we kind of. Like on X, I try and be pretty professional and on LinkedIn and all that shit.
On the podcast, it’s sort of getting a bit closer to authentic personalities, but there’s a bit of editing. On the Patreon, it’s just going to be like shooting from the hip, absolute garbage. I recorded something by the pool the other day. I recorded something after the poker tournament last night that will stick on the Patreon.
There’s going to be a lot of swearing. There’s going to be a lot of rubbish, unedited, raw, Luke and Kristoff. So that’s kind of, that’s, that’s the inner tribe that we want to cultivate. I think.
Krzysztof: Yeah, the, you know, some [00:02:00] people’s garbage is other people’s treasure, uh, And we already have a totally, uh, maybe the best video we’ve ever shot ready and primed for Patreons, uh, paid Patreons only. So hold on to your knickers for that. Uh, but anyway, we’re, we’re, we’re excited. Most, uh, so above, uh, everything you are fresh out of a poker tournament that I was.
This close to joining you for before the wife just tied me to the kitchen chair and wouldn’t let me participate in But you uh played for you said what six hours? nine hours
Luke: Yeah, it was a good old, like, 4pm till about 11pm, I got, I bubbled, pretty much bubbled, if you know what, if you know what poker parlance that means, that means like, you go all the way to the point where you start earning money, and you get busted out. Like, you know, one or two places from the money I got. I finished [00:03:00] 18th out of 106 players and they were paying the top 16.
So I’m going to call that a bubble. Yeah, but disappointing finish, but I was really pleased with my performance. I should have made a, I played a strong game. I don’t think I made any major errors, but it did remind me why I really don’t like tournament poker. I much prefer cash poker.
Krzysztof: And, uh, we spoke about this already. I much prefer the tournament style rather than than cash. And I think I would have played that last hand you told me about differently than you. So, uh, for anybody not into poker, you could fast forward this, uh, time stamp this to the next section. But you said your.
Your last hand was in the ace King, correct?
Luke: Yeah, ace king in middle position, yeah. Facing a, uh, under the gun limper from a quite loose aggressive player.
Krzysztof: Yeah. So, uh, translated that guy, uh, bet first, right? He raised
Luke: He limped in, but he was [00:04:00] kind of a loose aggressive. But he limped, yeah.
Krzysztof: he, okay. So wait, you bet first, you raise
Luke: Is that right?
Krzysztof: with your ace King.
Luke: no, actually, no, you’re right. You’re right. I missed it last night. Like I said, my brain’s a bit frazzled. Um, So, okay, so, he had about 300k, maybe 400k, I had about 100, a bit less than 100, maybe 75k. Uh, I’m below average stack. Blinds were, I think, 5000, 10, 000. So, like, I haven’t got any play left, like, I’m, I’m, I’m on death’s door because I’d already, just a few hands prior, I’d run into the same guy, my top pair, against his really weird backdoor straight, so he kind of crippled me already.
Um, so I knew I was playing for my life. Uh, yeah, blinds 5, 000, 10, 000. And he opened to 20, 000
Krzysztof: [00:05:00] Yeah.
Luke: shoved.
Krzysztof: Okay, so the invest, I think there’s an investing lesson for us here because in tournament poker, the context matters greatly. And I’m not saying you made a mistake necessarily, because obviously, uh,
it’s a close call. I think the way you, you set the hand up, but in previous iterations, it’s that sensitivity to the large picture where, you know, if you’re not, you know, on death’s door with your stacks and you said you, you may be the sixth smallest out of 18, that still means five people below you. And if there’s only two, you’re two places away from the money, then often the hard thing to do in that situation is to fold even good hands.
Because, you know, somebody’s gonna probabilistically going to bust ahead of you. Now, that would, to me, would especially be the case if someone already raised the pot. And so [00:06:00] you’re challenging somebody that’s demonstrating a good hand. I think in, so, you know, you gave me a good reason why that’s not, you know, you’re like, well, it’s not that much money.
Um, meaning like, you were playing to win, right? And, uh, you weren’t trying to just squeak in, correct?
Luke: Great, yeah, yeah. And there was kind of, I think that exact spot is 100%, it’s an all in, there’s no argument. But I get the analogy you’re driving at, so I’ll kind of go with it. Like if my stack was much deeper, like if I say I hadn’t been crippled and I still had like 150k from the hand prior, then I can see an argument for playing a line very differently.
But, uh, I think in that spot I just have to jam, because I’m way ahead of his under the gun raising range. Because he’s pretty aggressive, and he’s calling, he’s calling there with ace queen, ace jack, I think. And so I’m a massive favourite. It’s very unlikely. He’s got aces and kings, and they’re the [00:07:00] only hands I’m behind to.
Krzysztof: yeah, so for all of you non poker players, maybe that sounds like a bunch of gibberish. All I’m trying to say, or I think what we’re trying to say. is that because investing too is a complex system like poker with lots of variables and incomplete information, it’s really important to not, I would say, be absolutist in your thinking saying, when this happens, you have to do this.
Rather, things are always situational. sometimes winning a hand or getting involved in a dangerous situation, even if you’re a favorite is worse for you because of the, the call it larger probabilities. And so that’s what makes poker so fascinating. That good? What’s good and bad is relative
Luke: I told you, like every, if you give a nuanced answer to literally any poker question, however someone sets up the question, your answer [00:08:00] is always going to be, it depends because there’s always still like another bunch of variables that won’t be framed unless the question is like 20 minutes long, right?
There’s always more context that you could consider if you, if you, if you
Krzysztof: exactly. And one of the, the, the thing that made most sense to me was that you said to me it wasn’t worth your time to simply try to squeak across into the, the small payout. Because then even if you did, right, whatever, you get some small pocket change, but that costs you another four hours of your time and you don’t have much shot at the big prize, right?
That makes sense. The analogy to investing is the same thing. Like we’re going to talk about some, some of our Wall Street wildlife, um, member questions today. And I hate to say it, but some of these answers are, it depends because all investors lives in contexts are different. And I can’t, we can’t literally tell you [00:09:00] what the correct thing to do is without taking all those other things into consideration.
All right, poker story over, but. Hell of a job. I’m proud of you, buddy. I loved getting the updates, uh, throughout the tournament. I’m sorry. I wasn’t there with you. Uh, next time, give me more than a six days heads up and I’ll be there. And maybe my roof will be fixed by then. So I won’t need to be here.
Luke: Or, you know, maybe, uh, you, like, lose the roof over your house, if you, and your shirt as well, off your back, and your wife, and everything else, if you do come and join me in the Pokegame. So, pray for the best.
Krzysztof: All right. So last time we recorded, we were on the eve of the, uh, United States election. And I think it’s fair to say that you and I are, at this point, somewhat exhausted, individually thinking about it and talking about it. I am, I’ve been doing nothing but reading and analyzing and doing all the things. So I don’t think we want [00:10:00] to.
share with you too much explicit political commentary. Maybe, maybe as the weeks draw on and more stuff comes up. But one thing I did want to talk about, which is, we’ll share this in the source notes, episode source notes. There is a crypto journalist by the name of Laura Shin who wrote an essay before the election, in Time Magazine saying that she is going to support Kamala Harris for president, but completely disagrees with the Democrats crypto policies.
And since the election happened. Crypto has gone bazookas upwards because Trump is explicitly pro in the pro crypto lobby. I think that in an article, I really like her as a journalist, by the way, I really think she’s, she’s a journalist with integrity and calls it as she sees it. And the point she made against the Democrats are [00:11:00] really solid.
If you think of crypto again, not as the. Casino garbage. So, for reference listeners, anytime I reference crypto, I am never ever talking about the meme coin, gambling, 99 percent of that shit. I am legitimately talking about projects that have technology and utility in their DNA. So, that said, her main point was blockchain technology is the future of finance, I guess.
And the United States is being under democratic, the democratic stifling conditions was, asked backwards and, maybe the Democrats lost in part because the crypto lobby through a nice chunk of change and I think rightly so, because I don’t want the United States to fall behind in this particular, uh, technological area.
So. Now [00:12:00] that crypto is sort of given a fresh start, it’s really exciting for, especially for all the projects that I’ve most cared about. That is why, just a structural heads up here, listeners, I have been using SoFi for a long time. As a platform for king of the jungle, then whatever, two months in they got rid of the crypto part.
And so I had to sell my chain link, which I did not want to do. I think I found a loophole now to get myself a king of the jungle portfolio back on Robin hood. And. once that’s set up, I am very much going to add chain link back to the portfolio and maybe some Bitcoin about which more later, but as we record today reached new all time highs at 81, 000 per coin.
So, it’s to me, one of the maybe key differentiators [00:13:00] between us as investors at the moment is that those two. Particular assets. I think are really important to my investing strategy.
Luke: Okay, very good.
Krzysztof: So, uh, so anyway, long story short, uh, Robin hood, I hope, uh, yeah, I clicked the transfer assets button from so far to Robin hood.
So they should be there early next week.
Luke: And, as I said last week, I’ve recently moved my investments on trading 212 from a taxable account to a ISA, which is like a UK version of a Roth and non taxable account, just because, and we’ll loop back on this because it’s a Patreon question a bit later in the episode. Just because actually, if I look at this competition over the next 10, 20 years, that’s going to turn into a lot of money and I want it to be tax free money.
Krzysztof: Awesome. Yeah, I think, you know, just one additional thing about the platform thing. I think it makes a difference. I mean, to me, I talked about this a couple episodes [00:14:00] back. I really, really am impressed by Robin Hood’s platform. And I alluded to the fact that they have a new trading platform. But I never gave you an update on that, but it’s like they have, it’s a, when you open it now, it’s kind of like a bunch of widgets that you could rearrange on your screen.
So you have the actual chart, which you could play with, then a bunch of watch lists, and it’s very customizable. It’s very slick. It’s very powerful. I’m a real, I’m turning into a legit Robin Hood fan, credit cards and like the whole platform I think is just way superior to what SoFi was offering.
Danger being the casino aspect of it. So you have to be careful if you, you have, uh, the gambling gene in you because they entice you to take on more risk than, than you might want to.
Luke: I’ve got a couple of brokers for my real money portfolio. It’s actually spread around a few different places, but one of them is a pretty sophisticated platform called [00:15:00] ig. com and it’s the same kind of thing. It’s like a professional trader platform and you’ve got all the technicals and the charts and like second by second things, and it can feel a little bit like.
Being in the casino, like if I put, if I put a, if I make an investment on my boring old platforms, I just set a limit price and then I’ll get a cup of coffee and then the thing either failed or it didn’t. If I’m on IG, I’m like watching the thing and I’m trying to like drag my execution down and I’m chasing this thing.
It’s like playing a bloody game. Space invaders or something. And I wouldn’t do that if it was a platform didn’t let me do that stupid shit. But one thing, one thing is that it’s a proper platform. I get really good FX rates and I get a really narrow spread, but I pay, like I pay a small fee, like 10 pounds, I think to trade.
and I can’t do like fractional trading and stuff on that. I mean, you, you, you position Robin Hood as being like a serious platform, but do you know what you’re paying? I’ve got no idea.
Krzysztof: you mean like what they skim off the top? maybe this is a night naive thing on [00:16:00] my end, but I always see it in pennies. So I just think of it as some tax. I don’t even want to think about it. Doesn’t even register on my, in my ledger.
Luke: Check it out sometime. Like, you know, I don’t know what kind of, when the money gets big, those, those little pennies can make a huge difference. So like, do go look at it at
Krzysztof: yeah, for sure. Okay. So, I have a pop quiz for you.
Luke: Oh, all right.
Krzysztof: Don’t you love it when I do that?
Luke: I’m down.
Krzysztof: Unfortunately, I don’t know the source of this because I was, I was doing my research and then I came across this video and I didn’t write it down. I just took a snapshot, but there was no, what’s it called? Label of who was, I took it from, so sorry, whoever I took this from, but there were two people discussing, it’s not, it wasn’t necessarily a prediction.
It was kind of more in the spirit of, you know, uh, our favorite, uh, TV show. Kathy woods arc investing like, Oh, we think this company is going to be worth this much, you know, down the road, kind of [00:17:00] a real bullish. Yeah, go technology, you know, kind of thing.
Luke: just to get it, cause in case someone hasn’t listened to me being sarcastic about Ark Invest or Wood in the past, like, I like their research, their models are absolute bullshit. And like most of the forecasts they make. are, you know, improbable to the, I know I can’t, I can’t say too much without using really bad language.
That probably is only fit for the Patreon. Anyway, ignore their financial models. Oh
Krzysztof: We’re promising you. I just swear his swear his life off talking about Predictions. So this is, this is, uh, this is kind of one of those situations, but tell me what you think the, one of these fellas had us had a chart, uh, column, uh, a chart showing Tesla’s potential revenues by category by product [00:18:00] category, and the categories they named were, uh, uh, cars. energy storage, service, and other robo taxi, optimus, auto bidder, auto bidder, and AI inference. I don’t even know what auto bidder is. Uh, didn’t even look into it yet.
Luke: I think they built some technology and it’s, it’s to do with it. Tesla energy like this, I think it’s something to do with how they buy and sell energy from the grid or something like that,
Krzysztof: That makes sense. Okay. and AI inference as the last one and up to now, uh, and they showed this chart when in the, in the horizontal rows, you’ll see. By year, the revenues in each of these columns growing based on what this guy said is not is not even wild pie in the sky scenario that he was trying to be conservative.
How much do you think he estimates Tesla shares 10 years from now, meaning in 2035 could be [00:19:00] slash will be worth one share.
Luke: or when they’re okay, they’re what, like a trillion dollar business now, give or take, I think.
Krzysztof: Current market cap is a trillion. Yeah,
Luke: Okay. I you, well, the way you’ve just framed the question, right? This guy’s clearly like off the deep end with his kind of crazy predictions. Alright. I’m okay. I, and I’m gonna get a plugin for an excellent move I made just a few weeks ago. I’m now a SpaceX shareholder. You, or at least I’m a, I’m a shareholder of an SPV that owns a piece of another SPV that owns some SpaceX.
So I’m like super arm’s length. But anyway, I got, I got me some space X. and, and I think space X is going to be the world’s most, I think it’s going to be the first company that gets to 10 trillion valuation. and I see them doing that over the next 10 years. so I’m going to, and this guy’s probably off the deep end, but I’m going to peg Tesla below that, even though the next four years are going to be very good for Musk because he’s [00:20:00] best buddies with, you Uh, the Trumpster right now and half of, uh, Donald’s, uh, victory speech was like SpaceX and Tesla.
I will say that this guy’s wild prediction is that this company, does a eight X, 8 trillion in 10 years time.
Krzysztof: Well, so, uh, eight, so eight times the current share price, right? Share price now is 320,
Luke: Yes,
Krzysztof: so that would be,
Luke: and a half, two and a half thousand dot bugs, something like that. Sure, yeah,
Krzysztof: so, uh, wait three. So three 20 times eight in 10 years. You’re saying it would be each share would be worth 2, 560. Okay. His estimate is each share will be worth 30, 000 per share.
Luke: moron.
Krzysztof: So,
Luke: That’s a hundred X, a hundred
Krzysztof: to,
Luke: over ten minutes. Okay, good one.
Krzysztof: we’re going to find the, uh, um, I’ll try to [00:21:00] find this, this, uh, conversation. Here’s the, uh, I’m going to screen share the chart.
Can you see it?
Luke: I can see it, yes. Yep, But look, Christoph, before you go too deep down this write, Like someone’s, someone’s thrown together a pretty picture with a lot of made up numbers. And, like, you can use numbers, especially invented numbers that you’ve literally just pulled out your ass. You can use them to tell any story you like.
So, don’t go too far substantiating this guy’s, like, fantasy story. He’s, he’s basically calling for a hundred times return over the next ten years.
Krzysztof: Yeah. Now, of course, uh, I think from an investing standpoint, it’s not whether everything you just said is right because it’s a fantasy until it’s real. It’s a fantasy. but there’s something I think in good investing where. Actually, let me use, uh, let me backtrack, you know, anybody talking about, uh, a new company being born, like at the age of the, you know, dawn of the [00:22:00] internet, if you talked about Amazon when they were still selling books, right, and somebody would tell you that their whatever revenue at that time in 1997, once they opened up the music shop would be worth 4 trillion, you would have been laughed out of the room.
There are instances. Where the next big thing is being born. And I do, as you know, in my king of the jungle portfolio, Tesla is the only call it, uh, excellent business. And there’s a reason for that. And that’s not that I’m agreeing with these numbers because they’re fantastical, but because I too see. That when you add up all these categories that are sort of unprecedented and they’re changing the world or have the potential for it, then the share price could be less than here way, way, way more than you reasonably could predict, whether that’s 30, 000 or, [00:23:00] you know, Hey, if it’s only 15, 000 per share in 10 years, no, I won’t complain.
So,
Luke: Let me, let me, you, you sort of throw me into this topic, but let me just give you some numbers that I’ve literally just Googled, right? So the guy, this guy is calling for a hundred X, it’s a trillion dollar company. So he’s saying it’s going to be at a hundred trillion dollar company in 10 years time.
So let me just give you, do you know what the global GDP is? Do you know what that number even means? It’s like the, the gross product of the entire planet, every country combined. And today, global GDP is 110 trillion. And if we go back 10 years, apparently global GDP was about 80 trillion. So the world has grown about 20 or 30 percent in 10 years.
If we, if the world grows, say another 20 or [00:24:00] 30%, let’s say AI means the world doubles massive acceleration over the next 10 years. And so the world is at a 200 trillion GDP globally. This guy reckons Tesla is going to be half of the world’s gross domestic product. He’s smoking something.
Krzysztof: Maybe. More likely than not. but. you know, I don’t know. I don’t know what happens when, if, you know, the robots are successful and they, and they’re running all the factories and then everything’s happening seven times as fast and Tesla’s making most of these profits. I mean, who, you know, like, who, who knows?
I thought we were going to be in a deep, dark recession. Now, all of a sudden, it’s like 1928 in the U. S. and we’re partying till, you know, uh, the cows come home. So
Luke: Recession is coming,
buddy. That’s all next year. It’s coming still down the track.
Krzysztof: So it’ll be fun for us to, uh, when we’re now, what, 10 years older and much more [00:25:00] handsome and gray, you know, we have nothing but gray silver, uh, smoking a pipe. We’ll see just how wild this prediction was, but I thought it was interesting to mention. So you were off by a factor of 10.
Luke: No, no, no. This guy was off by a factor of a hundred. I’m much closer to reality. Even my 8 trillion guesstimate was like wildly optimistic. Look, if nothing else, right. Give me this, right. If nothing else, this guy reckons, you know, Tesla’s going to be half the world’s GDP, like half of. Like, so where’s NVIDIA?
Like, where’s the guys that make all the stuff that help, that enable Tesla to do the shit they’re doing, right? Are they Yeah, just, it makes no sense. It makes no sense. Someone else has got to manufacture, you know, drill for the, uh, rare earth materials to build the batteries, like all your other favorite companies.
There is no way Tesla is more than Well, what is it today? It’s one, about 1 percent of the world GDP, a bit less than that. That seems reasonable to me. Maybe they grow to their, like, [00:26:00] 2 percent of the world GDP.
Krzysztof: Well, from my sort of, uh, low level investor standpoint, in terms of things that are actionable, it’s not that I believe his wild prediction is going to be right. It’s that I have a clear reason why I, I’m okay owning a company that’s already 1 trillion, which is, as you know, the very, it’s the exception in my, in the rule of the companies I currently own, which are mostly tiny, tiny little blips, because I see, I see an argument for this kind of thing. And again, whether it 10 X’s or a hundred X’s or a thousand X’s, I’ll be a winner.
In each case. So for, if you don’t yet own Tesla shares, I think, uh, my recommendation to any listener now would be to start doing some deep dives beyond what you think you already know about the company. And there’s endless resources, [00:27:00] uh, to get you started. So.
Luke: Yeah, look, the only reason I’m keeping you like holding you to account hard on this one is there are like 1000 other podcasts out there that are just brainlessly pumping companies like Tesla without really understanding like the financial system in a way that numbers work. And I totally buy into the story around Optimus and everything else.
And but I think you’ve got to also at the same time, you got to think about, you know, portfolio diversification, you got to think about like, like a poker player, think about all the possible outcomes. There are outcomes where Tesla like stalls or maybe goes into reverse, but they’re low probability, but those kinds of things can happen.
So, you know, I wouldn’t endorse going all in on anything.
Krzysztof: Oh, yeah, for sure. Absolutely. But to close the loop, the next 4 years for Tesla will certainly be. Uh, maybe some of the best in the company’s history by far because lower, less, [00:28:00] fewer regulations, basically green light for whatever they want to do, uh, exciting times in that from, from that perspective,
Luke: I’m going to give us a shout out because if you wind back about, I don’t know, maybe it’s 15 or so episodes, you and I made the exact prediction that has now come to pass. And we were talking. Back then about, you know, which way could the election go? And if, is it going to be Republican or Democrat?
How’s that going to affect different sectors? We said exactly this, like if the Republicans get in, it’s going to be bad for renewables, except Tesla. And that’s exactly what’s happened.
Krzysztof: man, we are so smart. There’s so many, so many people in our audience just look at us like two handsome faces, but like we actually, sometimes we say things that come true. Okay. next really important item on our agenda today. Badger is that last week we talked about the king of the jungle update. We gave you [00:29:00] the.
The first round finale in which it became clear that Badger whooped monkey’s ass, something, something silly. And then it turns out when we went back behind the scenes that our math was a little off because GDP, U. S. dollars, You know, you’re a complicated man, you and your, you know, secret bond layers and whatever you do when I’m not looking over your shoulder and the gap by which you won was way, way bigger than we had even, uh, suspected.
So this little, this little, uh, top banana award that you, uh, won and deserved, you actually probably deserve like 10 of these. Uh, so just, uh, you know, FYI, it wasn’t even close. We’ll show you the up to date it properly [00:30:00] GDP USD adjusted chart. In the show notes,
but in my defense, I got you right where I want you. I think you’re full of confidence. You think I can’t ever catch up. You think round two is already a given. You’re already probably ordered your lobster rolls and Dom Perignon already. It’s. You’ve got your bib, uh, all picked out, but, but just, just you wait, just you wait.
It’s like what they say on the streets, badger, you know, you gotta give it the first taste is free. You know, you gotta, you gotta
Luke: Uh, well, I mean, I am confident because it’s not just the king of the jungle. I’m winning I’m also now winning the axon versus eos bet and let us let us remind you This is the bet that just a four or five weeks ago. You were way ahead and you and I said well Let’s double the stakes buddy. I’m still confident and you were like, yeah, let’s 10x the stakes [00:31:00] We should have done that.
I’m now winning.
Krzysztof: So you want to say a little bit something about axon because it was a big on earnings. I was really happy and proud of you. Uh, I’m still going to win the EOS bet, but that’s, you know, we’re both going to have really, really nice numbers for that particular competition. But yeah, what’s up with axon
Luke: mean, you could win the bet because EOS is like this, like highly volatile, crazy thing. Whereas Axon is the other end of the spectrum. Like let me just, in one minute, like why am I so confident about just the slow and steady tortoise like growth of a company like Axon? It’s cause every quarter they report, they keep reporting ever increasing annual recurring revenue, recovering revenues now 95 percent of their total revenue.
So they know the money’s coming in and they’ve got all of this in like 10 years out, mapped out future contracted revenue, like police departments. They’re not like these agile tech companies, right? They’ve got the [00:32:00] large majority of our axon as a partner, and it’s going to be a hell of a job to unplug axon on plugin.
Like a different provider that does all the stuff that Axon does for the police. So those revenues, like I can’t think of any company in the world where they can be so confident. About their forecast because they just know what’s booked. Right. And they’re continuing, like they’re a slow and steady grower, but they’re continuing to innovate.
And one thing that really caught my eye, like I love this company because they keep doing really cool things. Like they’ve been talking about something called drone as first responder, and they did a couple acquisitions in the last 12 months to help grow this. And essentially the idea is like, if there’s an incident.
say, and the police have to get to the scene, or they can, in the future, they’ll be able to dispatch a drone from like a vehicle or from like the headquarters or wherever that will have drones parked on rooftops all over the city. I imagine a drone will be able to get to the scene in like two or three minutes autonomously, and then start relaying information back [00:33:00] to the control room so they can coordinate the response.
Well, they’re now plugging that into, um, uh, The watch me feature. They sort of announced this as a plan, they can’t do it just yet, because there’s still some regulatory stuff about, you have to have human eyes on a drone when you’re flying a drone, but they’re close to getting all that sorted. So like a police officer today has their body camera, if they just want, you know, like backup essentially, they press the watch me button, and then immediately like the camera’s recording, any other cameras in the area are recording, and someone in like the control center gets an alert to say, like eyes on the screen, something’s going down, like you might need to take action to help me.
well, in the future, that watch me is going to be integrated with drone as first responder. So no human in the loop, the police officer says watch me, and a drone gets dispatched to scene, like hones in on the guy with GPS, and it’s there in a couple of minutes, like providing like oversight. This is just this stuff.
And it sounds like, like surveillance, society gone crazy, horror. [00:34:00] But like, this is just the reality of the world we live in, right? I like that this sort of science fiction technology is being deployed. to make policing, like say what you will about the police, but, um, I’m a big fan of, of policing. I know that it’s controversy though around policing and some particularly in the U S bringing more transparency, like more cameras and recordings to police’s interactions with the public.
Like that can only be a good thing, right? For https: otter. ai
Growth and it’s kind of exciting sci fi stories that you get every so often.
Krzysztof: And another important lesson here. Especially to anyone listening here as a beginner, this is, this is so important. When Badger visited me in Austin, uh, some months ago, we went on a run and half the time he was yapping at me about [00:35:00] Axon. in that time, I still had my, recessions are coming kind of fear mind, which fingers crossed doesn’t happen, but a lesson I know all too well that for the most part of my investing journey, I’ve been able to override is that.
excuse of the company is too expensive. Great companies are usually very expensive, but what’s shocking is that because they’re great companies, they continue to overperform rather than the underperform. So this is another excellent test case of, Great company. Uh, I wanted to buy it. I put on my, you know, watch list and then I never did it because I was busy investing in my undervalued stuff.
So, uh, but if I take this lesson seriously, that means maybe now it’s like really, really richly valued, but even then, five years from now, today’s price might seem. You know, uh, reasonable [00:36:00] or, you know, it still might overperform the market. So don’t let, quote unquote, expensive scare you out of great companies.
And when someone like Badger tells you they have very high conviction on this, listen hard.
Luke: Yeah, I mean, maybe the only thing I will say is it’s an expensive, it was always an expensive company. I think it’s up like 30 percent or something on earnings. Like it’s, it remains a very expensive company. So I wouldn’t over allocate to this in your portfolio. If I didn’t own any today, I’d still buy myself a starter position, even at today’s valuation.
Krzysztof: Awesome. Uh, I wanted to, I promised listeners that I would be making a purchase 50 purchase every week. I don’t think, we talked about last week cause it was just the first, we concluded the king of the jungle one year update, but I now have two purchases for 50 each and both of them, I only bought two companies.
So I want to mention briefly. [00:37:00] Uh, I added to Coherus at, uh, 77 cents a share, so I’m up to 940 shares of Coherus, and I also added about $50 worth of Iris energy, uh, ticker symbol IREN. That is my favorite Bitcoin miner slash ai data warehouse, conglomerate, and it looks like we’re taping on Sunday evening, uh, right now, but right now, because Bitcoin has gone parabolic, reaching all time highs, it looks like the stock is going to be up something like 15 percent at market open.
So, um, that is, Iris Energy is becoming a higher and higher conviction for me as the months go in and the company keeps putting up really extraordinarily. Numbers, so it’s a great proxy for investing in both AI and Bitcoin. So keep it under your radar folks
Luke: Very good. I think I did nothing [00:38:00] as I usually do. I just let my portfolio sail.
Krzysztof: You know, I’m gonna task you with one little bit of a homework assignment for and maybe next week Badger Mellie one another one of your favorite companies had earnings and the shares went down quite a bit and You know that company inside and out. It’s a favorite of ours both of ours I’m starting to get, uh, itchy fingers to potentially add it to my portfolio.
So I’m curious. If you have something to, to share with us next week about Mercado Libre and, you know, what happens when the great company drops, you know, hits a speed bump that the market seems not to appreciate is in an opportunity, or is there some, you know, grit, uh, sand in the gears,
Luke: You know what, I might just plug one of my favorite substats. It’s a guy called Wolf of Harcourt Street. I’ll stick a link in the show notes. And he did a really nice update on MercadoLibre’s earnings. Yeah, I think this [00:39:00] could be a buying opportunity right now.
we’ve got a bunch of listener questions actually in the last week, Christoph, I think let’s just pick out one each because we’re now getting overwhelmed with stuff to talk about. I want to pick out on a question from Paul. On our Patreon. Paul essentially said, he’s, he’s talking about kind of growth over the longterm.
It sounds like he’s a somewhat newer investor and he says like 20 percent growth is seen as a good return, but does this really lead to sums that could be life changing? So I want to tackle that head on. So My own growth is about 21 percent of over 21 years, and that has changed my life completely.
And I started with, you know, I was putting like a decent amount of money in, uh, every year into my tax efficient account, my Isis and. I retired in my 40s, so that, you know, can’t argue that didn’t change my life. And I just want to give an example of what 21%, like, it’s hard [00:40:00] to get a 21 percent return. I mean, like, not to blow my own trumpet, that is kind of world class.
I think Buffett and co did a similar return over 50 years, like 20, 20 percent over 50 years, I think his return, like if I can continue this for 50 years, then, you know, I don’t expect to be able to do that. I think I’ve had a fair share of luck. Um, but if we, if we just take like my 21 percent return and I’d sort of base it on our king of the jungle portfolio.
So, um, if, so we’ve got, I think we’ve put in. I think we’ve put in say 20 at the end of the competition, the end of the first year, we had 2, 100 we put into the accounts and we’re now adding 200 bucks a month. So if we just do that 200 a month, no big lump sums and we keep the contest going for 20 years, that turns into 650, 000.
So like that’s a pretty life changing amount of money. Uh, that, that will certainly bridge [00:41:00] your,
Krzysztof: that’s just the capital sum adding, right? That’s no growth into that figure.
Luke: so if So that’s just. That’s
yeah, if you, if you invest if we run the King of the Jungle competition and we just do 200 bucks a month and we continue the competition for 20 years, if I can get my Kaga, my King of the Jungle portfolio should have grown to about 650 K. Which is why I’ve moved it into a tax efficient account, because that’s like a ton of tax to pay otherwise.
and yeah, like even, you know, that’s, that’s a good amount of money. And that’s like with just 200 bucks a month, right? So you can change your life over the, but the most important parameter in that equation is time. Like the amount of money is fairly small. The return is good. 20%, 21%. But time is the one that really does it.
Because. You know, you get that benefit year after year after year and each year, like your growth is growing and growing and growing. So yeah, that’s how you get to like a seven figure portfolio.
Krzysztof: Yeah, so the short [00:42:00] answer is yes. If you listen to what we’re saying, we’re talking about life changing results, especially if you’re lucky enough to be listening to us and you’re still youngish, meaning if you are anywhere in your 20s. We do not exaggerate when we tell you, you might be able to retire by the time you’re 40.
If you learn the principles, if you’re consistent, it works. It’s not going to be easy and it’s not going to be a straight line, but it’s very much doable. And if you hop over to our Patreon page, then you will see Badger’s yearly results posted and the percentages and the numbers and how quickly it adds up.
So, yeah, it’s kind of hard to believe, but it’s totally doable. I mean, I’m a, you know, uh, I’m not as, you know, Badger’s retired and he’s, In Vietnam today, he’s going to be in Singapore tomorrow, and God knows where, drinking Scotch Petey Scotch from a castle, uh, on Friday. [00:43:00] I’m not at his level, but I am a lowly educator who spent most of his life working in the humanities for little to no pay, and I drive some pretty fancy cars, and I live very comfortably.
And that’s with having made some pretty egregious errors along the way. Uh, but I’ve been, you know, successful for a very long time until the bonehead errors showed up. So like, yes, this stuff works and we are, we are living proof.
Luke: You’re, uh, you’re, you’re very humble, but I did visit you and you’ve got an incredible array of very expensive headwear. And you also have a substantial property portfolio. So I don’t think you can be complaining too hard.
Krzysztof: Yeah. Yeah. We’re doing all right. This investing stuff is all right. That’s why we’re in this business, right? Where we’re legit trying to help people. Okay.
Luke: You made me a bit uncomfortable the way you framed that though. I just want to say one thing, right? Like we’re not. here selling our shit and pumping and doing this sort of nonsense. That’s not our game, right? Like I, [00:44:00] as Christoph kind of implied, like we’re, we make our money from either jobs or from our investment returns.
And hopefully over time, the investment returns become more and more material that we no longer have to work. if you want to become a Patreon and support the podcast, that is awesome. But like, I, fully engaged with all of our just regular listeners. I don’t want to charge for anything ever. I certainly can’t give personalized investment advice.
Like I’m not here selling anything. I just want to be really clear about that. I’m literally doing this podcast. For the pleasure of it. Like, I just enjoy talking about this shit. Like, I’m on holiday, and my wife’s bitching at me, she’s like, Like, Luke, you spend your whole time looking at your phone, you’re reading this, and what you’re listening to, I’m not listening to, like, an earnings report.
Like, it’s supposed to be a holiday! Like, this is how I relax, I enjoy this stuff, I like doing this, for the pleasure of doing it. It makes me, it makes me curious about the world. so I’m just doing the podcast because I want to share that passion, right? Not, uh, don’t send us your money, right? Unless you want to [00:45:00] support the pod and that’s, you know, those small dollars are going at some point, they’ll become big enough that they might pay for me to stop doing the editing.
Cause I don’t really like doing the editing. That’s a chore.
Krzysztof: Yeah, so I’m, I’m happy to hear that badger, on my end, uh, I’m a poor, broke ass university professor. Send me all your money. Don’t give any to badger. There’s the monkey tear, especially for you. because I too would like to retire earlier, uh, Then, you know, sooner than later, but yes, uh, we appreciate, uh, every, every banana you throw our way so that we could actually hire out a lot of the editing and the work and focus on making the show better.
So, okay. That
Luke: So can I squeeze one more thing in? Sorry, sorry, sorry. I know you haven’t done your question yet. It’s not a question. We had a, we had a sort of question. I just want to, I want to give a shout out to. Uh, I’m not going to try and shib, shib, shib, shibbitz artist 9447 on, I don’t know where we’d [00:46:00] snapshot of that from maybe Spotify or YouTube, you know?
Um, and he just said, uh, what apps do you use in the UK to buy stocks, please? I’m 18 years old here. Like I, I told him what I use trading two, one, two, blah, blah, blah. I’m 18 years old. And this guy or girl is like getting interested in investing. Good job. Very, very good. I didn’t start until I was in my late twenties and I wish I’d started and got interested as an 18 year old.
Like the fact that you’re even looking at this kind of content and thinking about like growing your money in the future, like round of applause. Well done. That is exactly the right way to plan for a, uh, a successful future. commendations.
Krzysztof: percent, and that’s why I’m doing the 50 a week thing. I’m modeling that here’s what I’m buying this week, 50 bucks every single week. If you could manage that, my goodness, I would love to be 17 again, just for this reason to, [00:47:00] you know, like, uh, okay. The question that I want to field comes from our Patreon, Steven, and he says.
Monkey, I love your conviction in Coherus, C H R S, but isn’t the big lesson here, always limit your position sizing to a certain amount, no matter your conviction level, and to dollar cost average over longer periods. Uh, the, look at Badger going nuts. So my answer to that is, I would say like 98 percent of the time, that is exactly the correct thing.
Uh, that is, it’s when things go wrong, they go wrong spectacularly. And it’s because you thought you knew more than you did and you can’t ever know everything. And it’s just decent risk management. the 5 percent that I want to reserve is based on what we said in the poker analogy at the top of the show.
There is no one size fits all answer to every single situation, every [00:48:00] single lifespan, risk profile, all, you know, there are too many variables and the main one, the other one I want to add to this is, I am, my position is oversized in Coherus because one, it’s a biotech and in biotechs work.
Very differently from most other stocks, come normal companies because it’s FDA versus, you know, I, went on about it a bunch in some ways it’s even riskier, but it’s also one of the companies that I’ve done a massive amount of research on over time. So this conviction is. Everything I said before is still true, but it’s, it’s, it’s resting on some pretty deep fundamentals and it’s a risk I am willing to take.
That’s the conversation you have to in the end, uh, justify for yourself, knowing what you know, and knowing what you don’t know, knowing that big positions could end very badly. Do you still want to take that gamble? And I’ll say one more [00:49:00] time, just to not confuse anybody, If you’re a beginner or even middle or advanced 98 percent of the time, when 95 cap out your max positions at 1015, I’ve seen skilled investors even get up to 20, right?
There is that line where you start. Uh, do worse a fine, right? So if you only have, say, 10 positions, then sort of by definition, some might get up to 20 percent ish, right? I have. Yes. So most of the time don’t do that. No, no. Why you’re doing it. If, if you do and expect the worst and hope for the best. So is that clear badger?
Is that, is that like nuanced enough answer
Luke: Yeah, I think so. I think so. And yeah, like essentially, don’t just try and copy another investor because you don’t know all the reasons why they do what they do. and like if Christophe is, well, it sounds [00:50:00] like you’re more than 50 percent in Coherus now, right? You’re doing that founded on your knowledge.
Yeah. Like founded on your knowledge and your research in the company. If you haven’t done your own due diligence and haven’t built your own. Conviction. Like, you’re gonna, probably gonna blow yourself up if you take like a 50 percent position in a company because it’s going to be volatile and it’s going to go up and down and then at some point, you know, you probably be, you know, be in the hole and you’ll be like, oh, that Kristoff guy is an idiot and you’ll sell out.
But if you were the Kristoff guy and you’d done the work, you’d understand why it was where it was and you’d be able to have like a nuanced take on it.
Krzysztof: Right. And you know what, we talked about this in the different guys, some episodes back, your friend, uh, who had that massive Nvidia position, right. Going into earnings. Now, this is what I’m talking about. Context matters. If it were me and I will already filthy rich and have three castles, There is no way, there is no way I would put, you know, make any [00:51:00] position bigger than, you know, call it 8%, no matter how much I love the company, because to me, I don’t need that much money, say, but if you’re, the counterexample is, if you’re, say, only 22 years old, and you have 5, 000, Uh, if you lose that whole 5, 000, you know what?
You’re still 22. You’ll be fine. It sucks because you set yourself back, but not the end of the world. And if you took a really calculated shot on goal, you know, that’s sort of what life is about at that stage. So that’s what I mean. It’s impossible to tell you algorithmically what the max should be, but the rule of thumb is, good ideas.
Great. If they work and it’s like up to 20%, 15%, you’ll have way more than you need. Don’t exceed that unless you have a very good reason, and humility knowing that even that good reason can, can not work out.
Luke: And probably a good, like, good guideline, [00:52:00] irrespective of where you are in life, if it’s keeping you awake at night, like if it’s just on your mind and you’re worrying about it, you’re probably overexposed.
Krzysztof: Yes. Oh, and I’m sorry. One more point. The dollar cost average over longer periods. This is why this is a brilliant exception to that. biotechs don’t play by the sort of axon slow and steady. You know, growth over time. Coherus has, it’s kind of a special situation where, it’s sort of more like a coiled spring that the analysts don’t yet understand in the market, healthcare dynamics and the drug dynamics.
This isn’t a play for 10 years time. This is like, if I’m right, it’s going to happen in the next year or two. So I do not want to wait, until, you know, some company buys it out for some, you know, there’s no reason for me to wait. In other words, because the data is, I have all the data I need.
Luke: Alrighty, very good. [00:53:00] That was a, for an unplanned episode, you did a great job of leading us through some, uh, some good nuanced questions and topics there. Good, good chat, Christoph. Well done.
Krzysztof: Awesome. Uh, do we have anything else to, uh, share with our listeners?
Luke: Well, maybe just to say, um, we are now going to be all in on Patreon in terms of our community. So we’ve got a bunch of. Patreon only content we’ll be hosting there. I just posted a preview of my real money portfolio over at the Patreon, if you want to go and check that out. yeah, so we’ll be doing some behind the scenes stuff and I have got some poker content I’ll be landing there a little later today.
Krzysztof: Right. So if you wanna see us in our skis, that’s where you’re gonna go. And , I think we, we got a, a bunch of free members, right, that joined in the last couple of days. I think it was through an expost of yours. So at this point, you know, when you join Patreon, we have the paid tiers, a bunch of animals for you to choose from.
That’s why I’m wearing my animal hat. You get to decide whether you’re a [00:54:00] sloth or a copy barer or a dolphin, or a monkey, or a badger, or. You know, uh, all these other things, but the point is that we are really enthused. that people from, you know, the random internets are saying, Hey, uh, we like what you’re doing and, uh, it’s more intimate on, you know, when you, when you legitimately kind of curate your own community and it really does make a difference when some people say, we’re going to throw you a couple of bucks because they take it more seriously.
That’s really, I know that might, I hope that doesn’t sound like slick salesman anything, but it’s true. We are like. Over and we’re over inundated with facts and like, with things to read and write. Uh, I’m speaking for myself, like 50 tabs open and I want to get, but the things that you pay for. are the things you actually care about, [00:55:00] and you then go deeper that way, and then everything just gets better.
So I think that’s one of the reasons we want to make the Patreon community kind of the pillar alongside YouTube.
Luke: Great stuff. And once again you can find it at patreon. com slash wallstreetwildlife, but we’re happy to chat on X, that is still one of my favourite places, on X. I am at 7 Luke Hallard. I
Krzysztof: I am at 7 Flying Platypus.
Luke: think we’re just about done for this week, aren’t we? So we always close out with Do you want to become a beast of an investor?
Krzysztof: Your journey starts here.
[00:56:00]
