💀 Why two high-profile stocks get a thumbs down from Luke and Krzysztof. $ADBE faces an existential AI threat (Kodak analogy included), while $DUOL’s chart looks like a “precipitous mountain drop.” Both make Monkey’s short candidate list.
📊 Markets don’t care about your opinions, price action reveals truth
🎯 We dissect a Patreon’s portfolio, is 24 stocks too many?
🌐 Could the Epstein scandal and political instability crash markets?
🚗 Luke’s skiing gets roasted by an AI skiing assistant
Segments:
00:00 Cold Open: Trade What You See
00:38 Welcome & Skiing with AI
03:22 Beaver’s X Debut & Security Test
06:08 Main Topic: Trade What You See vs What You Think
19:32 Patreon Portfolio Review
22:04 $AMZN Analysis – The Anchor Position
24:38 $MELI Analysis – Non-US Exposure Done Right
26:41 $ADBE Analysis – The Kodak Moment
35:34 $NVO Analysis – Badger vs Monkey
36:36 $JD dot com & The Low Conviction Trap
39:16 $TMDX Analysis – Best Chart, Wrong Weight
41:35 BitMine & Crypto Exposure
43:54 $SNOW Analysis – Below IPO Price
47:08 $DUOL Analysis – Skull and Crossbones
51:50 Portfolio Wrap-Up
55:40 Political Uncertainty & the Epstein Question
01:06:48 Options University Launch Update
01:09:05 Sponsor: Fiscal.AI & Close
WSW – EP120 – Video –
[00:00:00] Krys: trade what you see, not what you think with the caveat, markets don’t care about your opinions, price action reveals truth.
[00:00:08] Luke: the question here is timeframe.
[00:00:09] Krys: if the price action is showing you that there are people selling more than they’re buying, there’s a reason for that.
[00:00:17] Luke: there’s just more weight of people who are, you know, holding a position perhaps with like a one month timeframe or a six month timeframe, really like a 10 minute timeframe
[00:00:26]
[00:00:26]
[00:00:38] Luke: Welcome to the Deep Investing Jungle with your hosts, Luke, the Badger, Hallard, and Christophe the monkey. This week on the show, scalping versus Investing Time is relative in investing. We’re gonna get into that. We’ve got a bit of a debate, plus we’re doing a Patreon portfolio review. Haven’t done one of those for a while.
[00:00:56] Luke: There’s some really fun stuff to explore in this Patreon’s portfolio. Some good learnings for all of us. Plus another Patreon question, but one that’s really on my mind, could the current sideshow of American politics have a massive negative impact on markets?
[00:01:13] Krys: Badge. Let’s pull the curtain back for our listeners a little bit. We’re recording this on Monday morning and you know, we always do a little, uh, pre-recording check and this morning you sound. Like you just woke up because you did. It’s like really super early on a Monday morning. I’m sick and feeling terrible.
[00:01:36] Krys: We both sound like death. This is gonna be the worst show of all time listeners. Just don’t bother with this one. Just, just hang up. Just
[00:01:47] Luke: Speak for yourself. You frog. I’m, uh, I feel great. I got my cup of coffee. Monday is like my fasting day, so, uh, yeah, you know, I’m, I’m ready for the day. We’re hoping to get some snow today. I don’t think it’s gonna happen. I look out the window and all I see is like green and dirt, so it might be a day in the house.
[00:02:03] Krys: What do you even do with yourself when there’s no snow on the mountain and you’re your man of leisure
[00:02:09] Krys: And
[00:02:09] Krys: you don’t read?
[00:02:10] Luke: yeah, you can always find some snow. I’ll tell you what. Okay. I mean, this is a bit of a sidebar. Um, we, we went to a particular mountain yesterday with some new friends and there were, there were demoing something called Carve, which is like some gadget you attach to your, each of your ski boots. And it gives you like real time feedback on how you’re skiing.
[00:02:29] Luke: And I’m super skeptical about this, like AI in skiing stuff. Um. So we were desperately trying to find some snow to test out, like these carved things that we were wearing. The snow is pretty like thin and icy. So I’m skiing yesterday and I’m definitely trying to, I’m trying to get my, like, the highest skier iq, like the, after every, every time you stop, you do a few turns, you stop and kind of assess and it’s literally talking to you in real time.
[00:02:54] Luke: And this fricking thing is like, oh, you know, don’t slide your skis, lean in, get like a higher edge angle. Mother F it’s fricking icy. Can you not tell how icy is? That’s why I’m slipping and sliding around everywhere. So anyway, not the best. I got a, I got a skier IQ of 131, which I think is pretty good.
[00:03:12] Luke: Um, but it should be way higher.
[00:03:15] Luke: Should be way higher. The conditions, well they just not great. But anyway, snow is coming up.
[00:03:19] Krys: Okay. You show that AI badge.
[00:03:22] Krys: Speaking of ais, I just discovered this morning, I don’t know how I missed this, that Beaver has been, uh, set out into the wild. He’s now posting his own stuff on X. He followed me. Somehow Monkey followed the most important follow of his career.
[00:03:37] Luke: yeah.
[00:03:38] Krys: Uh, how’s our buddy doing?
[00:03:39] Krys: What’s, what’s the update?
[00:03:41] Luke: Uh, he’s doing good, I think. Yeah, he’s, uh, he’s now becoming a bit more autonomous. He’s kind of figuring out what he’s up to. He’s giving us like daily market insights. Um. Some of which are quite useful, which definitely try and put him on a more expensive model once the Patreon income justifies
[00:03:57] Krys: That’s right. That’s right. We could blame Beaver’s poor quality output on our, on our spend Thrift Patreons.
[00:04:06] Luke: that’s right. Um, the, the even on, even on a very cost effective me, uh, model. Beaver is doing an excellent job. I think I’m really enjoying interacting with him.
[00:04:15] Krys: Awesome. Although you did not, you did not run with my little pro provocations. I was trying to get, get a response out of you, uh, about, uh, or I, I started talking since you weren’t interacting with me, I started talking to Beaver about your, your love with, um, uh, affair with, uh, the Backstreet Boys and, and boy band dancing routines, and
[00:04:38] Luke: Look, let’s get into, let’s get into this, ’cause I know what you are Up to. You. Sneaky monkey. You were trying to get Beaver to like, uh, exfiltrate the video of me doing a Backstreet Boys dance number at my buddy Albert’s wedding and get him to post it. He does not have access to any of my personal data, so don’t even bother trying to do
[00:05:00] Krys: that, that’s right. I, I made sure I kept it sort of like I was just planting little seeds. That’s all. That’s all I said. Nothing about passwords. Oh my goodness. Uh, meanwhile, badge, uh, I got pretty sick. Uh, I must’ve caught it from my students. So, uh, I haven’t seen daylight literally for like four days. And I’ve been coding about 14 hours, 14, 16 hours a day trying to tidy up all the options. University stuff. My god. All the, all the, like, you know, that last mile turns out is, is, is awful.
[00:05:43] Krys: Uh, but we’re getting there. And out of that, I made a bunch of new slide decks and a bunch of new, you know, it’s not promo material, but you know, you and I started with the laws of the jungle. And so I made a bunch of stuff that’s a little similar in, in, um, genre, like 10 laws, but they pertain more to the, to the different options universe.
[00:06:10] Krys: And out of those, I think some, some came out real winners, uh, or real, really worth talking about. And I thought we could start there. There’s one slide. It it, it came out as rule number one that I think is controversial in some ways, uh, and we could hash it out. But I want to get to the, to the nuances on which you will see very, very effectively trade what you see, not what you think with the caveat, markets don’t care about your opinions, price action reveals truth.
[00:06:48] Krys: Your thesis is irrelevant when charts say otherwise. So do you want me to, to, I, I have a couple caveats right off the bat and a couple of, like, I, I want to lay the groundwork and then maybe I’ll turn it over to you because I suspect you probably disagree with this more than you agree. The first caveat is in that rule it says, trade what you see as opposed to invest.
[00:07:17] Krys: And so in my options course, I talk right upfront at the beginning that there are different ways of existing in the market each way. If you get good at it, you can be successful. There are professional traders, they make solid money. That’s their world. You and I come from the long-term investing school, we do things predominantly very differently. So when it says trade, what you see, I think the implication is that it’s oriented first and foremost toward shorter timeframes as opposed to invest. Right? But that said, since I’m sort of more in this middle zone, I also think this applies often enough to long-term investing. And there’s a, it’s calling out, I think, a mistake that even long-term investors make.
[00:08:22] Krys: So forget the shorter term price action stuff of just charts. And that is the following. I’ve talked about this before, but I think it’s worth reiterating most of the time. I agree with the principle that price reveals. The truth because the price is built out of all the, all of it. Right? And so the only time where you should disregard this is when in fact you’ve done enough digging and learning that you can confidently say you see something or you understand something that for whatever reason, the market doesn’t, which I would say puts you in the minority of people. But there are, I mean, I’ve made my, I’ve made my successes out of this. It’s, it’s, there are all kinds of examples where the market is too short term ish in its view. But to have that confidence where you could override, say the price action, most investors don’t, you know, they, they, they’re not doing that. And so all things being equal. My basic point about this rule is if the price action is showing you that there are people selling more than they’re buying, there’s a reason for that. Your reason has to overcome that. If you don’t have that, then the better move is to say, my thoughts, my opinions. I need to hold them very lightly loosely.
[00:10:13] Krys: Okay.
[00:10:15] Luke: Yeah. Okay. I, um, I, I agree with you. I think you’re right. Um, you’re right that I would disagree with this when the, because the question here is timeframe. That’s like the key thing, and if the timeframe does get long enough. Um, it’s, maybe it’s easier to be right because you’re playing a different game to the average market participant.
[00:10:43] Luke: Um, like if you’re genuinely, like, deeply a long-term investor, and I’m not talking, you know, 3, 4, 5 years and talking like 10, 20 years in some of these like generational companies. Then, you know, you are playing a somewhat unique game. There aren’t many participants in the market who are playing that game with you.
[00:11:04] Luke: And so you can wait to be right. You know, you’re only gonna get so many bets in your lifetime because the nature of the duration that you are kind of making these decisions over. Um. But I, yeah, I, but I like sub sub five year timeframe. I do agree with you. Like you are, you’re right. And when you, you know, this, this, this topic was born outta the conversation you and I had behind the scenes with the cohort two of the options course.
[00:11:35] Luke: Um, and as the timeframes do become cheap, shorter, um, like you are, then you’re then on the same battlefield as far more people. Um. And so like price, action and some of the things you like, the words, I’m always like choking on the words, but you know, the, uh, resistance levels and support levels that you talk about in the options course, they do become more relevant.
[00:12:03] Luke: ’cause there’s just more weight of people who are, you know, holding a position perhaps with like a one month timeframe or a six month timeframe, really like a 10 minute timeframe. And they are the people that you are trading against.
[00:12:17] Krys: Okay. Yeah. Couple of things. One, you know, I mean the, the elephant in the room for me now more than ever is I’ve experienced the power of AI and directly and when you mention something like 10 to 20 year timeframes, I’m not sure I believe that’s possible any longer. Meaning, you know, like realistically speaking, only a handful of companies might be you.
[00:12:50] Krys: You have might have some confidence that they’ll be around 10 years from now.
[00:12:55] Krys: Like, it would be shocking for me to hear that, say Amazon or Google somehow got. You know, uh, but outside of, say, the conglomerates at Max, I would say five years-ish is the longest we could have any kind of hope to, to have a reasonable ish thesis.
[00:13:17] Krys: And then as you get shorter in the timeframe, it seems to me that those, if you have an opinion that is contrary to what the market is telling you, you’re, you’re from the start, I think in a position of disadvantage. That’s, that’s the basic point. And there are certain fields I think, where actually it doesn’t really matter, biotech being one of them, because overnight, you know, the market doesn’t know which drug will or won’t be approved, and why. Uh, the shorter timeframe stuff, uh, that we talked about in the options course.
[00:14:07] Krys: For me, that was mostly a pedagogical, uh, um, example to show people that there are better and worse entry points, and those are pretty literally shown to you by levels of supply and demand. So all of the things being equal, you could time your entries relatively, uh, with more or less skill. That said, because all timeframes are relative, if you are truly a long-term investor, there’s zero reason for you truly to ever concern yourself with any timeframe. Any, any one of those ul timeframes like. Especially the, the, the hours or the 30 minutes or the 15 minutes, you just wouldn’t do it. Uh, especially if your thesis is sound and you are thinking in in years. So it’s always a balancing act. The greater danger. ’cause I think maybe this is the value of why we wanted to talk about this.
[00:15:18] Krys: I know from experience, the danger here is people getting confused. They, they, I say this in the, in the course, uh, if you remember badge, long-term investors often make the mistake of holding out of hope. And short term people make the mistake of, uh. It’s almost a similar thing. They, they should have sold because their technicals told them to sell, but they took a long-term investor’s mindset with, oh no, it’ll come back, which is a violation of that rule. And so it goes both ways. Don’t confuse yourself, basically is the, is the real warning. And what we teach here is start from the long-term investing principles because those are the correct ones, and then when you’re ready, add a layer of, of precision when you’re ready to do that. That’s what I, how I would summarize it.
[00:16:26] Luke: Yeah, that’s fair. That’s fair. Like I think, as you said in the intro of both of the cohorts of the options course, like know the game you are playing and know what kind of investor you are. And if you, if you are not clear about that as almost like a ground rule, you’re just gonna get influenced by things that are not helpful for the, for you.
[00:16:47] Krys: Yeah. And that’s a, right, that’s, that’s a good way of, of, of putting it. Yeah. You short-termers get influenced by long-term mindset to their detriment, and long-term investors get influenced by the short for, to their detriment.
[00:17:04] Luke: This is where my beautiful skepticism really comes into play. ’cause I’m so like. I’m so voracious about this, you know, previously about technical trading being garbage. Now you have persuaded me that it’s not garbage. There is something, but I still, even now having understood that and agreed with you, I still reject it as something I will ever use and I just, you know, I ignore it because I kind of know the game I’m playing and maybe I’ve, you know, maybe there’s some like alpha, some investing advantage that I’ve put aside by doing that.
[00:17:35] Luke: But I do that in the Sure knowledge that then I don’t. Encumber myself with all these distractions, um, from my core mission, which is, you know, it’s a different mission to someone who’s playing that shorter game.
[00:17:47] Krys: You know what’s gonna be great is we’re about to do a portfolio review and I’m going to, uh, I used the chart stuff as my contribution to this portfolio review. But I, what I did specifically I think in, in response to your doubts and hesitancy, is I used the monthly chart for my review. So for those who don’t understand what that even means before we probably pivot to that, is the monthly chart essentially shows you the shape of a at least five years.
[00:18:28] Krys: You could look at, say, the last five years of the company’s time span, sometimes more depending on how, how tiny you make your candlesticks. But more or less you see a wide swath of the price action, and I use it for one reason only. It’s basically to tell me am I going with the long term trend or am I now going against the long term trend over years?
[00:18:56] Krys: So forget about even months, forget about even a one year or two. All my snapshots were, if I invested in this company, let’s say five years ago, which is my cutoff for then, was I swimming upstream or downstream?
[00:19:13] Luke: Mm-hmm.
[00:19:15] Krys: And to me that’s an invaluable piece of investing understanding as we’ll. Talk through maybe when we start going through the companies one by one because it feeds into the rest of the thesis and ideas and stuff.
[00:19:30] Krys: So badge, you wanna introduce this next, this next segment.
[00:19:34] Luke: Yeah, so we uh, we did a portfolio review for a Patreon, I dunno, maybe like a coming up for a year ago, maybe nine months ago. And this isn’t like a regular slot we’ll do on the podcast ’cause like, I mean, just frankly we are not licensed investment advisors. We’re not regulated to give personal investment advice.
[00:19:53] Luke: So we’re gonna keep this anonymous. But I think this one was interesting that we got, because there are some good general learnings in here for all of us. And there’s like some stuff I’m gonna criticize in this portfolio. But like I do as well, like I’m criticizing myself. So, um, yeah. So let’s get into it.
[00:20:10] Luke: Right? Um, let’s give a bit a bit of background on the objectives of this Patreon. So he’s about 30 years old. He’s a British citizen. He’s got his isa, which you know, I’ve got two. It’s like your Roth IRA. It’s like your tax efficient investment account. His investment timeframe is sort of 15 to 20 years.
[00:20:31] Luke: Um, and he’s just expecting to kind of add more money to his portfolio portfolio over time. So that’s like a really good kind of, you know, newer ish investor still relatively early in the journey with a long view. Um, some, some sort of, uh, philosophical things that he shared, like he’s. Leans toward growth, but wants some value plays in his portfolio, trying to get away from being very heavy.
[00:21:00] Luke: Us. Yeah. Can’t we all? It’s difficult. Um, he’s pretty risk accepting. Um, and he says he’s looking for market mispricing opportunities. Says like a bit of a frame. And before we get into it, why don’t we just show So if you’re not on the YouTubes, let me just sort of describe and outline what the portfolio looks like and then we’ll get into it.
[00:21:22] Luke: And we’ve, you know, you and I have both got some thoughts on this. So our Patreon has, I think, 24 different positions. The, lemme just quickly run through maybe the top five. So like Amazon, 10% allocation, Mecado, Libre, about 8%. Adobe just over 7%. Novo nor disk 6%. And then it kind of goes down and there’s like a long tail at the end of some sub one and a half percent positions.
[00:21:50] Luke: And that includes stocks like ire, cept, bio Robotics, Microsoft Axon, Palo Alto, and Zscaler. It’s got a bit of a shape of of the portfolio. So what do you.
[00:22:04] Krys: Well badge, I say we start at the top because I see an interesting, even if we go through sequentially the first few companies, I think we’ll get at a lot of a, a lot, there’ll be value to that. So one, seeing Amazon as a 10% holding one, uh, I’m biased in favor of this company, so I have, I myself have a positive view, uh, about its future. And my contribution was, and I knew this, I didn’t actually have to click on the monthly chart, but I knew when I was gonna look at the chart that if I scale out it through years, the direction is an upward slope. So you’re investing with the trend. The fact that it’s 10% to me is a pretty decent, like to me, I feel this is the anchor.
[00:22:57] Krys: And you, you, you, it’s never a bad idea to have one of the world’s best companies as an anchor in your position when everything lines up. So I Monkey Gives, gives this two, two bananas up.
[00:23:12] Luke: And, and this was like a, a 10 badger stock from me when we did our, um, king of the Jungle Portfolio Review in episodes 90 and 91, like. Um, I to, I highly endorse this and actually I’m gonna jump to the end a little bit because our Patreon also asks us a bunch of questions, and one of them was, if you had to invest your entire pension into one stock, what would it be?
[00:23:37] Luke: So assuming like it relates to this portfolio, like obviously you don’t wanna invest everything in one stock, that’s like insanity, but if you literally had to at gunpoint, like without a doubt, for me it would be Amazon in this list.
[00:23:49] Krys: Oh, that’s interesting. Uh, I wonder why Amazon over some, a company like Google, but maybe it’s because if I had to answer that myself, because Google is still all, let’s say, digital, and that world is just transforming so fast, nothing’s guaranteed
[00:24:06] Luke: Well, I might, I might have gone out. I might have gone alphabet. But our point, our Patreon doesn’t own alphabet, so I’m picking from his list.
[00:24:11] Krys: right. So, you know, for me it’s, I mean, I, I only have tiny nibbles in both Amazon and Google, but, but I think I would probably prefer Amazon myself because they have that physical. It’s the wear, it’s the robotics and the warehouses stuff that probably has a longer future lifespan. So yeah, thumbs up on, on the anchor position.
[00:24:38] Luke: Yeah. And, and also also our Patreon. He’s, he’s given like a conviction level for a whole bunch of his stocks and like this is a high conviction stock for him. Yeah. Like totally endorse that, but.
[00:24:48] Krys: And next up is Mercado Libre at 8% Monkey’s technical check. Also, didn’t have to actually click on the chart, but it’s up and to the right over the years. Uh, the last whatever couple have been sideways ish, but that’s still on the monthly frame. And to reiterate my point, actually, let me take this, this detour, that’s the whole point about a monthly point.
[00:25:16] Krys: If I only looked at, let’s say the last year or two. It would be more like, eh, you know, it’s been, it’s been sort of playing in the same valley, but, but long, if we’re taking the long-term investors view, like five years-ish, then it is up and to the right and so I override that. I don’t overcomplicate it and it gets a green pass on technicals from that vantage.
[00:25:41] Luke: Yep, totally endorse it as well, like not. Much more to say about this one. It’s also super high conviction investment for me. It’s one I added to recently. If you and our Patreon is looking for non-US exposure, I think this is like an excellent source of that.
[00:25:55] Krys: Yeah, so at this point we essentially, 20% of the portfolio is on two quite similar companies. If you think about it, that might be the only, I don’t know if there’s any bearish thing to say. It’s, these are both e-commerce. And North America and maybe their competitors. So it is putting one fifth of the portfolio in, in, in, in very close cousins.
[00:26:30] Krys: And somebody might say, not diverse enough. I wouldn’t but it,
[00:26:35] Luke: I got, I got no problem with this. Yeah, I think this is like a good anchor to the portfolio, but it’s gonna be undone by the third stock.
[00:26:41] Krys: yep. So, so, so far I’m looking like, all right, our, our man is, is, you know, is is set himself up, right? And then I get to stock number three and I’m like, oh boy, I gotta, I gotta put on my, I gotta take off my, I gotta put on my dodo hat badge. Uh, lots of alarm bells here. Do you wanna, do you wanna take the weed?
[00:27:06] Luke: Well, I mean, let’s just say what it is if you’re not on YouTube. So, uh, our Patreon’s third position is Adobe. With a 7.3% per allocation. And I think it’s worth just quickly, um, touching on our Patreon’s like rationale. So one, there’s a column in the submission, which I think is really good, which is like his thesis, why does he own these stocks?
[00:27:27] Luke: And it’s like super important to be clear to yourself about that. And his first comment is Adobe colleagues use it and see it’s far above any alternative. Um, and also like 7% allocation. He’s got it as a medium conviction level. So I see that is interesting in itself. Maybe we, we’ll touch on that in a sec.
[00:27:50] Luke: Colleagues use it, right? This is dangerous anecdotal evidence. I think, um, like it, this is my personal view and I, I accept, I could be wrong, but in my mind, like Adobe is facing an existential threat from generative ai. And if your colleagues are still using like legacy tools? Well, I mean they’re colleagues for one.
[00:28:15] Luke: So you are in, I dunno what line of business you’re in, but you know, you’re in a firm that has like a risk exposure and they’re probably not allowed to use like gen AI tools because you know you’re gonna have like data leakage and you know, that could be damaging for the company. Like it’s probably like compliance will prevent you from using these kind of tools.
[00:28:33] Luke: That’s probably why they’re using legacy tools. I say that very. Deliberately like Adobe. I don’t think tools like this will exist in the future, honestly. And um, and to the extent that they do, they’ll just be highly commoditized. ’cause it’ll just be too easy and too cheap. You won’t even, you know, you won’t build, um, PowerPoints and spreadsheets and stuff like that in the future.
[00:28:57] Luke: You have to say to ai, like, here’s a question, like, help me kind of distill out the answer. And it’ll be producing like these visuals and data and. Correlations and helping you kind of tell a story. Um, yeah, I’ve, I’ve got a big problem with this one. I think it’s an ugly stock.
[00:29:14] Krys: Badge. Yes, but more, I, I have a precise analogy I wanna draw on. I use this, maybe I overuse this, but I think it’s so apt, Kodak, when, when. I began investing was one of the, what? Like Dow 30 or something like It was known as one of these stalwarts, correct.
[00:29:34] Krys: Here’s the nuanced point. Digital cameras come along, right?
[00:29:38] Krys: Do people stop using film cameras? No, they didn’t. Film cameras continued to be used, but the writing for anybody paying attention was as clear as day, and obviously this massive conglomerate became a dodo bird. So that’s 0.1, 0.2. This is precisely where using a chart will save your neck as a long-term investor. Okay. So this is precisely for long-term investors. We’re looking at something like the monthly chart will probably save you immense amount of pain and, and money. What I saw on this monthly chart, and I could describe it to you, uh, verbally without pulling the chart up, is what looks like two hills going back to 2019.
[00:30:36] Krys: The first hill has an up slope from 2019 to 2021. Then there’s a down slope on the other side of the hill, that first hill, which bottom is about March, uh, end of 23. Then it has an up slope again until February of 24. And since February of 24, so basically two years. Now we’re on the other side of that down slope.
[00:31:03] Krys: So if you actually do just basic math, it’s been about six years that this stock has, has been flat. So you’ve been losing to the market for six years. That’s one, that’s 0.1. But more than anything, for two years now, the majority of market participants have been selling, not buying. Now, additional caveat, this is not a baby company.
[00:31:35] Krys: This company is still worth $108 billion. That means. The people involved in this are not just retail investors. This is owned by institutions at that huge market cap. And what have the institutions been doing, therefore, based on the chart they have been selling. So given that everybody is thinking about these issues, for our man to have a 7.3 location to this, given what we were talking about, he needs to know more than the rest of these institutions who are selling.
[00:32:18] Krys: My open question is, does he, and when we go back to your, what you said as part of his thesis, it’s colleagues use it. That’s my bell. That that is a, a massive trap. He doesn’t know more than the institutions. He’s relying on recency bias. If you want. To call it something.
[00:32:42] Luke: Yeah,
[00:32:42] Krys: This is a monkey candidate for shorting, if anything, using some of the options vehicles that I talk about in the course.
[00:32:52] Luke: yeah. You know, you, you, you could fall into a trap and go, oh, you know, it’s down so much. I haven’t looked at the chart. It’s down so much, you know, therefore it’s probably gonna come back. But, um. You know, your, uh, that’s like a, it’s a dangerous, uh, kind of mental model to have, like, as I always say, what goes down can still go lower, and if it’s like north of a hundred billion dollar business, it can go a lot lower.
[00:33:17] Luke: Right? There’s a ton of, like, there’s a long way from a hundred billion dollars to $0, which
[00:33:23] Luke: might
[00:33:23] Luke: be,
[00:33:24] Krys: That’s right. In fact, uh, one of the uses that I found valuable about doing this exercise is monkey has himself a whole new list of potential short candidates. And this is definitely one, but the glory is that nobody, here’s the thing, by the way, long-term investors, if you take anything from monkey’s, inve, uh, um, investing style or his option course, it’s that the point is to make money.
[00:33:48] Krys: And if you’ve done the work, like thinking about Adobe, who, what law in the physics universe says you have to buy long only or not participate. That’s why just thinking through this makes me more confident that if I use enough of a long-term view, but just the other side, then I’ll probably make money shorting this.
[00:34:11] Krys: And that’s a decent conclusion to come away from. Or if I’m not comfortable with that, just stay on the sidelines.
[00:34:17] Krys: So, but 7.3. That to me is, is, uh, yeah, that’s a, that’s a big mistake.
[00:34:25] Luke: and I think it is interesting, like our Patreon has said conviction level, medium, so to some extent, like he’s got perhaps similar concerns to us. You shouldn’t have like a medium conviction holding in your top 10 of your portfolio. You certainly shouldn’t have 7% of your portfolio in that. Like that’s, you know, that’s the territory of like the one or 2% on the other end of your barbell where you think, oh, maybe something will turn around, or something interesting you might believe, but you’re pinning a lot of your, uh, investing allocation on something that you just don’t fully believe in.
[00:34:58] Krys: Right. Moving on. Badge Next is Novo Nordisk, which is also, uh, a Badger Stock Monkey’s monthly view on this should be no surprise to anyone is, uh, red X, because it’s been sloping down for all the complicated. GLP one, political reasons. Uh, this isn’t a dodo stock for Monkey. This is more just a straight up bearish stock because I just don’t know how, how all that stuff is going to play out and, uh, on momentum alone.
[00:35:34] Krys: Uh, I would not invest in this at
[00:35:37] Krys: this moment,
[00:35:38] Luke: Yeah, fair enough. Like you, you and I are happy to disagree on this one. I’m, I’m an owner. I’m adding gradually. Um, yeah. You know, I’ve talked in previous episodes about like the risks the company faces and the sort of difficult position it’s in, but I think it’s reasonable. Risk-based return at the current valuation.
[00:35:56] Luke: Like in my mind, it is fairly cheap. Like a lot of the risks and the concerns are built into the valuation.
[00:36:01] Krys: and it does speak to the point I make that I think biotech ish companies and momentum could flip very quickly. And so if as long as you, you, you know what the catalysts are, then. It’s easier to hold against the momentum and, and make a lot of money,
[00:36:21] Luke: well we’ve done, we’ve, so we’ve done like a top four. Like, I don’t, I don’t think we should go like line by line through everything in the portfolio, but maybe let’s pick out now some that we’ve just got some specific comments on perhaps.
[00:36:32] Krys: Yeah. Uh, you wanted take JD next.
[00:36:36] Luke: sure. Yeah. I mean, yeah. Okay. Yeah, why not? So, um, our Patreon has 5.6% of his portfolio in jd.com, which is. Uh, it’s like an Asia sort of e-commerce, um, company. So, um, I’m an ex owner of this one. So maybe a couple of thoughts on this. Like, I, I got out a year or two ago ’cause I exited quite a bit of my China portfolio ’cause I think I just kind of made a ex like a risk, oh, like a mistake there getting into China.
[00:37:08] Luke: Um, I would say to our Patreon, like, I haven’t got a major concern with this. Like if you, if you think you understand it and you want to own this, great. I, I dunno which way you own it. So I would say you, I mean you probably own the A DR um, and if you do, you might wanna rethink that just ’cause like if us China relations deteriorate, it’s, it’s unlikely, but, you know, it’s, it’s not impossible that the a DR gets delisted and like weird, complicated things happen.
[00:37:40] Luke: So you do have another option you can buy. Some of these stocks on the Hong Kong stock exchange. So if you go check out ticker, it’s HKG 9 6 1 8, that’s like the Hong Kong’s version of jd.com. So you might be ti tiny bit lower risk against like some real like long tail things that could happen in the world.
[00:38:03] Luke: You probably don’t own this in your isa, I don’t think this is like ISA eligible. So maybe you’ve got like, you know, this is your ISA and your SIP and some other stuff together, um, on the company itself, like I got out because I felt like in the end I didn’t really understand China and the geopolitical risks.
[00:38:21] Luke: Um, and this stock is cheap, but I, I dunno whether to say, you know, is it cheap because it’s like good value or is it like value trap cheap? And um, and it like there’s some risk here and you’ve got this, interestingly, this is the first one of your portfolio holdings where you’ve got it as conviction level.
[00:38:43] Luke: Medium slash low. So like having a low conviction investment that’s 5.6% of your portfolio. Like that’s a no bueno for me.
[00:38:53] Krys: Yeah. And you know what? Badge, perfect segue, because all positions in the portfolio are also relative, at least I, I think of it that way. Once start expanding. They’re not in isolation. It’s a, it’s a, it’s a painting, right? With colors. So let me skip to, hi, uh, his 14th. Uh, position, which is Eds, it’s a monkey stock.
[00:39:16] Krys: So obviously I’m biased in favor for it, but what I’m not biased about is when I looked at the monthly chart, I think it was the strongest chart out of any company in the portfolio, meaning it’s basically up into the right from, since its origins to now. And therefore I was kind of, uh, surprised that he also listed as a high conviction.
[00:39:45] Krys: So it has, from my point of view, the best chart meaning strength, high conviction level, but is only 4%. Whereas JD is low conviction, but 5.6%. So if anything, those two should be reversed. But if he also says he’s risk tolerant, then the logic here really doesn’t make any sense to me. Why not make Eds a 9% position?
[00:40:18] Krys: Just sell all of jd. I mean, if he’s, he’s 29, right? Or, or, or around 30. Right. And I, that’s the move I would make. Probably you simplify your portfolio, you get rid of low conviction, you’re young enough to take on a 9% risk, especially if that still would, you know, not, I mean, 9% is a lot, but it’s for, for young 30, you know, oh, that’s not excessive.
[00:40:53] Krys: And it would fall more in line with the, with what he thinks he’s doing.
[00:40:57] Luke: Yeah. like if there’s, if there’s one thing our Patreon should do, he should look at his medium and low conviction holdings and he either needs to do the work and get those to high conviction or he needs to like underweight or exit them from the portfolio. ’cause you absolutely shouldn’t have stuff. You are not, uh, you know, you’re not fully.
[00:41:20] Luke: Supportive of, and you really feel like you have like the advantage over the market. You know, there’s like a reason why you believe you are right. You shouldn’t have those in your top 10 of your portfolio.
[00:41:30] Krys: What do you wanna talk about next? I have, I have a couple outliers, but what do you got?
[00:41:35] Luke: bit mine. So, um, somewhere down we’re getting into like the depths of the portfolio. Our Patreon has a 4% allocation to bit mine immersion technologies and he says he’s looking for like Ethereum exposure inside his isa. I dunno, anything about this holding, I don’t really know what it is, but just a, like a general comment if you’re, you know, if it’s quite hard to get crypto exposure in, in an icer, like knowing the nuances of ISIS and that particular tax efficient investment account like H-M-R-C-A pretty stringent about what you can hold in icea.
[00:42:12] Luke: So, you know, maybe question yourself, is there. Are you letting like the tax tail wag the investing dog? Like if you want crypto exposure, um, maybe you need to do that outside of the ICER perhaps rather than buying something that might be, I don’t, again, I don’t know, might be like a substandard way of getting crypto exposure.
[00:42:34] Krys: Yeah, I think that’s fair. Uh, the chart is pretty ugly as of as of late, so I would wait until there was some supply coming online just for, in that sense, a little bit more sophisticated timing issue. But if he’s already in, then so be it. If his thesis is strong, uh, you know, what I, uh, what was interesting for me, badge.
[00:43:01] Krys: Is this kind of segues into something we were talking about a little bit on, on Patreon. Uh, one of, one of our Patreons said, you know, um, in terms of ai, that data is, data is the new oil. We’ve known that for, for a bit. And I myself have been contemplating companies like Snowflake and Mongo as my two companies that I used to know well and then have since aged out of any kind of expertise.
[00:43:37] Krys: And when I looked at the chart, uh, it’s not good. It’s, it’s actually selling below. Its IPO average weighted selling price. So that tells me more or less that people who know things are not convinced.
[00:43:54] Luke: Sorry, just for clarity, you’re talking about snowflake here in terms of the holdings.
[00:43:58] Krys: Yeah. Uh, and so for, for our, for our man here, he’s at 2% high conviction, but the chart tells a different story. So my own conclusion from this exercise for myself was weight. Wait, wait until there’s greater confidence in this being a winner because, well, what I said to our Patreons was, I asked a legit question.
[00:44:27] Krys: Does anyone read, uh, what’s it called? Um, there’s an expert in the field, Muji who writes, uh, uh, a blog called Hyperscaler, I think it was called, I read it obsessively back in my SaaS days.
[00:44:41] Luke: It’s a Hypergrowth.
[00:44:42] Krys: Hypergrowth. Hypergrowth. That’s right. Uh. But I can’t, I, I, I don’t know. I, I really, really, I think this is, you had pushback against this, right?
[00:44:52] Krys: I really don’t know. Will is AI gonna be, I don’t understand it enough. And so when the chart tells me the market isn’t, isn’t confident, confident, then why would I have high conviction? So I’m on the sidelines for that,
[00:45:06] Luke: Yeah, and I, I sold Snowflake a little while ago. Like, partly I didn’t understand it. Partly I started to come to the conclusion that,
[00:45:14] Luke: again, these tools get, uh, commoditized and maybe there’s just no margin to be had in having like a data lake.
[00:45:21] Krys: I know data Databricks is right, cleaning up, but they’re private. But I don’t understand exactly why they’re cleaning up and why a company like Snowflake isn’t. I know MongoDB has had a recent resurgence, but again, I’m, I’m such a data. Noob, I don’t understand whether or not an AI can or won’t do what you’re saying.
[00:45:44] Krys: It might. And so I would put it in the two hard pile, I suppose,
[00:45:49] Luke: Yeah.
[00:45:50] Krys: uh, for now, unless somebody could clarify for me why their confidence is high.
[00:45:55] Luke: Yeah. I think that’s, that’s fair. Like too hard pile is probably the reason I’ve put it aside.
[00:46:00] Krys: I talked about Zscaler in my options course in the first cohort. I thought that’s also interesting to point out why, because it’s a new position for, uh, starter position at 1%. And when I looked at the chart, especially the, the shorter ish is bad. The shorter ish is very bad. So if I was looking at anything like a medium term investor, I would stay far away.
[00:46:25] Krys: Obviously, the long term, uh, is. The long term is not down. It’s still got a slight curve up, but basically when I look at it from that perspective, right now, I see sideways long enough. It’s sideways. So I would say until cyber security proves, I suppose, that it is different, right? It is going to survive the SAS apocalypse, then I would wait.
[00:46:57] Krys: I would wait until the buyers start coming in.
[00:46:59] Luke: Anything else you wanna pick out? Because our, our patron also threw us a couple of questions and I’d like to go through those with you. Any particular holdings you wanna get your teeth into First?
[00:47:08] Krys: Well, real brief, very briefly, I put two skull and crossbones next to Duolingo. Uh, similar, uh, the char is the worst one in this, in this, uh, whole group. It’s actually a precipitous, uh, mountain drop. And for reasons we spoke about for Adobe, this also made monkeys, oh, why don’t I short this and make money going the other way?
[00:47:35] Krys: Uh, thesis so we don’t need to belabor it, but,
[00:47:37] Luke: Yeah. Like I, I, I kind of, I, I’m also very bearish on this company and actually one of our Patreons, his first question is, any companies you have a real allergic reaction to in my portfolio, like, yeah. Adobe and this one Duolingo. I’ve got an allergic reaction to these. Um, I kind of accept that. I might be wrong on this though.
[00:47:56] Luke: Like, um, and I think our Patreon’s thesis, like it’s thoughtful. He’s got a reason why he owns it. Like. Yeah. And he says it’s high conviction, so you could well be right. this and we could be wrong.
[00:48:11] Krys: Exactly, and this is again, to to, sorry, to keep coming back to this. This is why you would then look at the chart, see that everybody’s selling and you would wait until you had strength. Because until then you are saying you’re smarter than the market. And I just don’t buy that when everyone’s thinking about this kind of thing.
[00:48:37] Krys: So this is where a little bit more patience. And so you lose out on a, you know, if you’re right, if his thesis is right, you lose out on some percentage points. But think of how, what was it like at 500 something dollars a share not too long ago. Now it’s at a, I mean, that drop is so precipitous and the thesis is still the same for many long-term investors, right?
[00:48:59] Krys: But their losses are massive. So,
[00:49:02] Krys: So let’s zoom out. So holistically, what do we think Badge.
[00:49:05] Luke: I think this is a pretty decent portfolio that I think broadly achieves our Patreon’s investment objectives. Um, like so, so Beaver when he, we, like, we got the email on Beaver, like did some his own analysis and, uh, like chucked it into our show notes before we started doing the work. I laughed my head off when I read Ronna Beaver’s comments.
[00:49:28] Luke: Beaver, like in, in response to the question, like any general comment, be as brutal as you like, uh, beaver says this is the portfolio of someone who reads investment Twitter and buys everything. That sounds good.
[00:49:41] Krys: Ooh. Ooh. That’s, that’s, yeah. But you know what badge this is? I’ve been guilty of, of this kind of like, it’s a, it’s a seductive thing to get into an echo chamber where everybody’s saying only positive things about the next company. And by the way, my main critique of, of his, of the, the portfolio we got in terms of the spreadsheet is, is to this point, there is no bear thesis here
[00:50:15] Krys: for, there’s no bear thesis column.
[00:50:18] Krys: And so I think once you start doing that exercise for something like Adobe and Duolingo, you force yourself to say, wait a second. Okay. It could go the other way.
[00:50:33] Luke: Yeah, that’s, that’s actually, that’s a really good point. Yeah. Like, you know, you want to think about like what could go wrong. Our friends at Chitchat Stocks, they always like to ask this question when they do like a deep dive episode. Like, let’s do a pre-mortem. Like, you know, we are looking at the corpse of this holding, like, why did it die?
[00:50:53] Luke: If you can kind of, if you can kind of face into, um, like what could go wrong, like it will help you analyze your holdings and you should do that even for your high conviction stocks.
[00:51:04] Krys: Yeah, agree. Uh, so this is, but, but you know what? For, uh, if everybody had this kind of process as their starting point from which to improve, they’d be doing much better because it is so much easier to spot the fallacies in the room for improvement here. Uh, so, so this was good and I, I’ll reiterate, I like the very top section of the portfolio.
[00:51:30] Krys: Minus, minus Adobe and monkey wouldn’t be honest with himself if he didn’t poop all over the fact that. Greg’s sausage is, is also one of the holdings. So, so any portfolio that has Greg’s can, can improve drastically with, with one quick sell button.
[00:51:50] Luke: Well, let’s, let’s, let’s give it like a marks out of 10 as a portfolio. So how, how would you rate this?
[00:51:55] Luke: And again, I’m sorry. Caveat, caveat, considering like our Patreon’s self stated investment objectives and the fact that he’s like nearly 30, that you know better than mind.
[00:52:05] Krys: I feel like this is like a 6.5
[00:52:10] Luke: Okay.
[00:52:11] Krys: and maybe, maybe, maybe only, maybe it’s because if being risk tolerant myself and comments, I think we got about future earnings being stable and not, not a, a worry. Then I would probably be taking a little bit more aggressive stances and taking advantage of risk working in, in his favor.
[00:52:42] Krys: So I’d like to see a little bit more boldness in places, because 29 is still, you got a long, long row of income ahead of you,
[00:52:51] Luke: Yeah, that’s fair. I think that’s fair.
[00:52:53] Krys: right? Like, like, yeah.
[00:52:54] Krys: like, I mean, sorry, this, this really is not, I’m not intending to be rude or disrespectful. Why own Greg’s for somebody who’s 29 who doesn’t need the dividend income side of things? I totally buy your, your thesis on that. That does make sense to monkey, simple Simeon brain as you, as you allege, monkey can’t, you know, can’t wrap his, his mind around.
[00:53:15] Krys: But, but for this guy at 5%, why?
[00:53:20] Luke: I’m gonna be a bit more positive about it. I, I think this is like a solid seven and a half from me as a kind of portfolio score, considering everything. I think it’s pretty decent. Like he, he asked an interesting question that we didn’t quite touch on. Um, should I have bigger allocations to my highest conviction port positions?
[00:53:40] Luke: And like, yes, absolutely. But then. Like, I can self criticize over that too. Like I think your portfolio is pretty well structured with some decent high conviction holdings at one end and a few like slightly moon shotty things at the other end. It’s quite similar to my own portfolio. You know, 24 positions probably isn’t too many when you have 65% of your invested assets in your top 10.
[00:54:08] Luke: Um, obviously reminding ourselves of the caveats around things like Adobe and like, you know, low conviction in the top 10. There’s definitely opportunities to improve, but I think this is a solid portfolio and it’s, it’s also like the fact that he’s got a spreadsheet, he knows his allocations. He’s got a thesis that is like more than 99% of investors at your age.
[00:54:32] Luke: So like you are on an incredibly strong track and you’ve got a structure that allows you to improve. So yeah, like well done for.
[00:54:41] Krys: Yeah. Thanks for pointing that out. I, I, I hope this doesn’t sound too harsh. I mean, we were, you know, really addressing very technical, specific things, but holistic of, if you pull back and you 29-year-old has 25 positions in mostly really strong companies. And you have earnings coming in, then you’re gonna win big if you, especially if you refine, uh, and take into consideration some of the non-financial advice that we just, like, you’re winning more than, than, than the majority of people.
[00:55:16] Krys: So on that front, great job.
[00:55:18] Luke: Now let’s, uh, you non-financial advice. So that’s a good reminder. Let’s like bookend this section. So we’re not gonna do these often, like Patreons. Don’t be inundating us with your portfolios to review. We’ll probably do it once every couple of months. And we did this one because it’s quite interesting and it gave us an opportunity to talk about a whole bunch of holdings.
[00:55:38] Luke: Um. So, yeah, but, but you know, everything we said is not financial advice. We’re not regulated to comment on this. You know, every opinion we shared is like, if this was kind of like, if this was our portfolio, what would we do? That’s kind of the frame. So, um, to our Patreon, you know, don’t be trading on the back of, uh, the specific advice.
[00:56:00] Luke: Take it on board, have a think about it, but form your own opinions, please, before you do any trading. If you sell Adobe and it suddenly shoots to the moon, like, like, that’s, that’s on you buddy. That’s not on us.
[00:56:11] Krys: Right, that’s right. That, that’s right. Adobe and Duolingo combine and, and, and transform into the next $5 trillion company.
[00:56:21] Krys: Oh dear. Uh, that felt useful to me. It’s really good. It’s really good going through either reviews, monkey has himself two new shorts ready to do some fine options shenanigans with, with those two. So, excellent.
[00:56:36] Krys: badge over in the jungle. Uh, on our, our Patreon jungle. We had a comment from one of our resident Beasties that I refrain from commenting, uh, directly because I wanted to talk about it on the pod.
[00:56:50] Krys: And this is a little bit more philosophical, uh, non investing ish, but I’m sure we’ll loop it back. Uh, I’ll read the whole, I’ll read the whole comment, not sure if others agree with me or not, but the first time in a while, I’m generally concerned about how the Sideshow of American politics may have a massive negative effect on markets.
[00:57:13] Krys: It appears as though the Epstein debacle is ramping up with people of influence resigning a first arrest made in Norway and pressure mounting on transparency. It seems the first domino has fallen and now feels inevitable that some Starling truths may be revealed. And even if a portion of what is claimed is true, then this administration could be in serious trouble and the market would almost certainly follow.
[00:57:37] Krys: Uh, and I despise all politics, and this is not a political post. It’s a discussion on how current political shenanigans may influence markets. Here’s monkeys not investing retort. As a professor of rhetoric, I know better than maybe most people in the world. That rhetoric by, by many people’s definition is negative.
[00:58:03] Krys: It’s used often to mean the unsavory way. People try to persuade others. For UN, for illicit ends. And it is often tied to this idea of politics that to be rhetorical means you’re trying to pull a fast one over someone. But rhetoric Badge is not just the negative shadowy side. Rhetoric is how we communicate, and the idea that we can’t help but communicate something all the time.
[00:58:38] Krys: The shirt I wear, the hat I wear, the way you hold your arms is rhetorical because it, it communicates something for better, for worse, for whatever reasons. So you can’t not be rhetorical. So that’s a little bit of an adjustment. Now, if we take that to politics, here’s my pushback. I despise all politics to me means I despise the unsavory.
[00:59:06] Krys: Parts about the political process, the fact that it’s, let’s say corrupt and ruled by money and all the bad things, right? That’s very easy to understand. But if you take the flip side, which is politics means also how people think, we should govern ourselves by what laws, by what systems ought we arrange the way humans do business.
[00:59:37] Krys: You can’t have civilization if you don’t think about political structures otherwise. Well, if you, you can, but then you’re back in the woods, right? And back existing in the state of anarchy and you know, all things go. So we have to talk about politics in, in this way. And so. I for one. I don’t know if you feel this way, it’s, I think political discourse should be open.
[01:00:11] Krys: We shouldn’t bar political posts. What’s the, the problem isn’t political posts. The problem is you pick a tribal side and out of that tribal side you think everybody else is bad or evil or stupid or ignorant and then you start throwing poo. That’s the problem. It’s not the politics, it’s the way you talk about politics.
[01:00:35] Krys: So I appreciate this posters wanting to caveat, you know, like I don’t, you know, it’s kind of an implied, like I know most political conversations are slinging, so he’s wise to not want that. But we should talk about Epstein, right? And we should now bring it to the investment angle. So what do you think Badge
[01:00:55] Luke: yeah, I don’t disagree with anything you said. Um, but I think maybe our, maybe in asking this question in the Jungle Lounge, you know, which is an investing forum, I suppose. Our Patreon here, Bengal Tiger. Um, he’s kind of, he’s asking a different point, like what he’s saying is there is all this stuff happening in the world and it’s complex and, you know, who knows what the ramifications might be longer term.
[01:01:21] Luke: Um, like how does that, how should I think about that as an investor? I suppose that’s like the nuts and bolts of it.
[01:01:27] Luke: And you’re right. You know, um, we should have these difficult conversations and, you know, bad things have happened and like in my view, the, um, you know, people should face the consequences of their actions.
[01:01:40] Luke: I’m kind of, unfortunately the world is such that, that may or may not happen, but, you know, but if we focus on the investing angle, I suppose, you know, we are an investment podcast, not a political podcast. Um, I suppose Well, so, you know, should, should you hedge against this stuff? Should you, you know, how should you kind of factor it into your portfolio strategy?
[01:02:01] Luke: Um, and maybe it’s a bit, I dunno, is it, is it like distasteful to even talk about like, protecting your wealth when you know it, it’s like something as unsavory as like the whole Epstein situation. But maybe let’s put that aside. Um, like, I personally wish that, uh. People face the consequences of actions.
[01:02:22] Luke: I’m kind of skeptical unfortunately that that will happen. Probably won’t. But if it did, you know, it’s probably a good thing in the long term, even though it could create massive volatility and turmoil in the short to medium term while, you know, maybe certain people end up not in the position they’re in today and you know, who knows what that does to the investing environment.
[01:02:44] Luke: Um, but if I, as a long-term investor, I’m just kind of neutral to this stuff, I’m just gonna weather whatever storms may come.
[01:02:51] Krys: Right. My own investment takeaway is this is mostly non-actionable
[01:02:57] Luke: Hmm.
[01:02:58] Krys: and probably because this is always the case.
[01:03:01] Luke: Yeah.
[01:03:02] Krys: I mean when, when have human beings not been corrupted by money and power across the centuries?
[01:03:09] Luke: Yeah.
[01:03:09] Krys: Right. And so the only time monkeys ever really been bearish has been for, due to what I thought were economic.
[01:03:21] Krys: Red lights, flashing, debt spirals and you know, credit card defaults and that kind of thing. But the political stuff, uh,
[01:03:37] Krys: I don’t know. Let’s say a big scandal breaks out when then a bunch of, I mean, a big scandal has broken out, but let’s say a bunch of big names. Get to your point. Let’s say charged and found guilty presidents or heads of state or whatever. Okay, so the market has a couple big red days, and then what are the institutions gonna do?
[01:04:00] Krys: They’re gonna come in and swoop up all the shares for cheaper
[01:04:03] Krys: because it’s going to, you know, the next candle’s just, it just around
[01:04:07] Krys: the corner. So.
[01:04:08] Luke: Like if you, maybe something actionable and I, I’ve got no idea. Like if you think the CEO or the founder of a company you are invested in is gonna get, you know, suddenly come under fire and maybe face the consequences that might be actionable, that might be like a, a risk for that company. But if you look, when you’re looking at, as you say, say heads of state, um, like fx, the whole market, you’d probably, yeah.
[01:04:36] Luke: You know, it’s just like the background noise of an investor and it’s one of the many things that drives, you know, the big macro seven year cycle. You just have to like weather it.
[01:04:46] Krys: right. And maybe to put a nuanced point on that, there are only a handful of people I could think of that are, say, integral to the company if Musk was put in jail.
[01:05:00] Luke: Hmm.
[01:05:01] Krys: That would be devastating to Tesla, I think, at least in the short, medium term, no question.
[01:05:07] Luke: Yeah.
[01:05:08] Krys: Uh, but how many instances are, you know, most of?
[01:05:11] Krys: Yeah. Uh, and I hate to be cynical. This is to your point, what we’re talking about here really is a network. It was this gigantic network of whatever Epstein was. He was kind of like a master puppeteer network, like flywheel effect that the larger his network grew, the harder it is to disrupt it because you have millions or billions of dollars flowing from this person to that person, and no one wants to call anything out.
[01:05:41] Krys: So sort of like a Facebook, it’s, it was like too big to fail kind of thing. Uh, I have a hard time seeing,
[01:05:54] Krys: I, I mean, I, I wish it wasn’t the case, but.
[01:05:57] Luke: it’s out. Look, it’s outside of, certainly outside of our control, like everything we talk about on the podcast is out. The only thing we can control is like, you know, our portfolio construction and our reaction to the markets and our own emotions, right? But you know, what happens in the world? Happens in the world, like we are, we are just complete noddies when it comes to such things.
[01:06:13] Luke: So like some stuff you just have to not worry about.
[01:06:18] Krys: All right. Yeah.
[01:06:20] Luke: Okay.
[01:06:21] Krys: So badge. Don’t worry about the, the Epstein stuff. Just enjoy your, just enjoy your snow.
[01:06:27] Luke: Well, I mean, as long as you are not in the Epstein files, I know I’m not. Then I think the podcast is probably same.
[01:06:35] Krys: Well, monkey does like, uh, islands
[01:06:41] Krys: and he does like a chartered char chartered flight every, every now and again.
[01:06:49] Krys: I suppose, uh, a little self promo here. Badge. I’ve been, I really have been in the, in the dungeon, uh, working on the options course now for a long, long time. I’m, I pulled our Patreons whether I should just get over it and release it into the wild, you know, in a imperfect state. The feedback was overwhelmingly positive that I should, in fact, live fast, die young, rather than, uh, suffer per from perfectionism.
[01:07:18] Krys: So, uh, I hope to have it out within a week, uh, within a week, uh, for, you know, the, the first public iteration of it. So, uh, stay tuned.
[01:07:33] Luke: Awesome. Yeah, look, we’re looking forward to getting out. I know you are, you are buried in trying to like, snag the last few problems, but, um, we’ll have that out to our Patreons very soon if you’re interested. Signing up for the options course. The best place to start is to go get yourself over to Wall Street wildlife.com, where you’ll be hearing about it first.
[01:07:54] Krys: Oh, that’s right. This, this is worth announcing. Uh, only Patreons will have the deep discount. And I thought that’s wise because we’re building a community first and that’s an incentive for anybody to actually become a member of our community because you get a sweet 30%, uh, discount, uh, which is meaningful.
[01:08:15] Luke: Great
[01:08:16] Krys: we get more jungle critters.
[01:08:17] Luke: Yeah, and I will, and I’ll just a reminder, like I will say, um, like there’s value in your, the options university for lots of kinds of investors, even if you don’t wanna do like short term stuff and shorting and like looking for, um, you know, returns within like one month by betting against companies.
[01:08:41] Luke: There’s a lot of learning you’ve put in there for long-term investors around ensuring your portfolio against a downturn around, um, uh, being able to earn an income from investments that you have. So yeah, there’s lots of ways to get value from that investment in the Options University. Good job.
[01:09:01] Krys: Awesome badge. All right, you, you heading off the, uh, on the mountain?
[01:09:05] Luke: Uh, yeah. Let’s see. I looked out the window like this. I still see no snow, but we’ll decide before we close today, we didn’t talk about our, um, partners over at fiscal ai. We do use it every day. Um, if You use fiscal AI slash wildlife, you’ll get two weeks free of Fiscal Pro and a 15% discount if you upgrade.
[01:09:26] Luke: So do check it out at fiscal. Do AI slash Wildlife.
[01:09:30] Krys: You ready to become a a a Beastie badge?
[01:09:33] Luke: You start right here.
[01:09:35]
