🎙️ THIS WEEK IN THE JUNGLE:
Is AI about to eat the software industry? We dive into $MNDY’s brutal earnings reaction and ask: what’s the real moat when AI can code?
🤖 TESLA’S CRAZY PIVOT Elon’s killing the Model S & X to build… robots? We break down why Tesla’s betting everything on Optimus. Is this genius or desperation?
💊 PORTFOLIO DEEP DIVES • Why Monkey bought $ODD (Oddity Tech) — the AI-powered beauty play • Badger’s Greggs dilemma: double down on sausage rolls or finally come to his senses? $GRG
📈 THE EXPONENTIAL MINDSET A mind-bending thread from Zach Rynes on why linear thinking will cost you everything.
🎯 SAFARI STOCK: $CLS (Celestica) The AI infrastructure pick the market forgot. While everyone chases $NVDA, Celestica quietly builds the networking hardware that makes AI data centers actually work. 141% gains in 12 months, but still undervalued?
Segments:
00:00 Cold open
06:49 The Exponential Mindset: Why most investors are unprepared
10:27 Monday earnings: Software vs AI $MNDY
21:07 Tesla robotaxi expansion & FSD subscription pivot $TSLA
28:02 Monkey’s Oddity thesis $ODD
35:00 Badger’s Greggs dilemma $GRG
45:54 Safari Stock: Celestica $CLS
53:47 Closing Thoughts
WSW – E119 – Video –
[00:00:00] Luke: There will be fewer humans do it need work to be done. you know, they’re putting sort of fancy workflows and stuff in place when like, we, AI will just do this stuff.
[00:00:09] Krys: when you see a stock all of a sudden continuing to descend, I bought against the momentum because the valuation became stupidly attractive.
[00:00:22] Luke: And it is like now a $4 billion company from being, you know, getting close to like a $10 billion company at one
[00:00:28] Krys: Strong company performance does not necessarily mean a goodbye. Why would that be? Because we all know or should know, or should continue to reflect on the fact that the market does not care about what happened yesterday.
[00:00:42]
[00:00:42]
[00:00:54] Luke: Welcome to the Deep Investing Jungle with your host, Luke the Badger Hallard, and Christophe the monkey. This week is Software eating the world or is AI eating software? We’re taking a look at Monday dot com’s results. Plus Christophe tells me Greg’s sausage rolls are in trouble. Am I gonna double down, do nothing or come to my senses?
[00:01:17] Luke: We are gonna field a Patreon question on why Christophe bought Oddity Tech ticker ODD plus some chat about Tesla’s pivot from cars to robots.
[00:01:28] Krys: Bad. You are slightly less hungover than promised. Did you? What happened last night during Super Bowl Sunday? Did you reign it in or,
[00:01:39] Luke: Yeah, pretty wild. We know we rang the bell in the bar a couple of times, drinking like shot skis and, uh, had some fun Still. I’m not a massive, like, I don’t, I had someone explaining how Super Bowl actually works to me, so I was like trying to piece together, uh, the mechanics of the game. But, uh, like the halftime show was superb and like, it was a fun, fun day out.
[00:01:59] Krys: Oh my God. I love that halftime show. That was fantastic. That was some real creative. yeah.
[00:02:05] Krys: That’s, that’s art. That was art. That was art. Forget. I mean, even if you take politics out of it, I mean, you know, to, to imagine all of that, that choreo. Beautiful.
[00:02:14] Krys: Beautiful.
[00:02:15] Luke: My, uh, I’d, I’d heard of Bad Bunny, but I’d never really seen or listened to his music. And then one of the girls was playing some of the songs over breakfast. And that managed my expectations. ’cause I was like, this is crap. Who the hell the guy can’t sing. Uh, but the show was superb.
[00:02:29] Luke: Yeah. Agree. It was a, it was a really fun story and it was like a Yeah.
[00:02:33] Luke: A
[00:02:33] Luke: great show.
[00:02:33] Krys: badge, I was kind of eyeing the game. Half, half in, half out. I was doing work on the, the laptop, trying to keep the pulse on American culture. And you know what the ads were telling us? Uh, I caught a couple that I thought were like, oh, what’s going on here? Uh, but you were watching, I think, more intently.
[00:02:52] Krys: Did anything catch your eye in terms of were there some obvious winners, losers thing did?
[00:02:57] Luke: We have a, we have a bet every year. We all pick a, we pick a brand and then whoever’s advert comes up first, like wins, like that prop bet. So we just like betting throughout the day. Uh, I lost, I bet on Anthropic ’cause I knew they had a bunch of Super Bowl ads. Um, but some random rando insurance company got in there before me.
[00:03:16] Luke: But, uh, I thought the Atropic ads were good. Like, they’re interesting, like this kind of like attack ads on open ai, talking about them putting, uh, adverts into ai. Did you
[00:03:27] Krys: That was Claude, right? That was the Claude ad with the, with the Buff dude. Yeah. That was cool.
[00:03:32] Luke: I saw, I didn’t catch it, but I saw on Twitter this morning there’s some controversy about.
[00:03:37] Luke: Ring cameras and their advert around. Did you catch that one? Uh, so Amazon owns Ring, which is like the cameras a lot of folks have on the front doors. And the picture of the advert was, um, like if you’ve lost your dog, we’ve been like helping people find dogs by putting like, you know, photos on lampposts.
[00:03:55] Luke: It’s time to modernize that. And they’ve now like announced a feature where you can do like a network, uh, like search for your doggy. And then it’ll like activate everyone’s camera in the neighborhood. And if the dog gets seen, you know, you hear about it. So people are suddenly realizing, oh, like I’ve, I’ve built this like mesh surveillance network.
[00:04:14] Luke: Like you should have known that to start with when you put like an internet enabled camera on your front of your house. And if you’ve got ring cameras in your house, you might want to rethink that.
[00:04:23] Krys: Oh, that’s fascinating. ’cause as soon as I saw the dog angle, I’m like, oh, that’s great. Nothing more heartbreaking than seeing a, a lost buddy wandering through the neighborhood. I did not.
[00:04:33] Luke: Well, you know, wait until like, you know, ICE start taking like a surveillance feed from this camera network,
[00:04:38] Krys: I mean, correct me if I’m wrong, this is, this is a little stereotypical. I’ve never been to China myself, but people who have, I, I hear that that is the sort of black mirror type of situation where, you know, there’s a camera kind of everywhere and, and that surveillance state is, and I mean. I, I don’t know how I would drive.
[00:04:59] Krys: I don’t know how fun driving would become if I knew that every last, you know, portion of the highway was recording me and managing speed like that would suck.
[00:05:10] Luke: Well, you mean you’re being recorded everywhere, right? If even if only by your Tesla, um, like Teslas that pass you by in the street. Right. The data’s there. I’m sure it’s gonna be used or is being used in nefarious
[00:05:19] Krys: Yeah, I caught a glimpse of the Coinbase ad, something that was like a bunch of texts, like blue screen and basic text, and I thought, oh, this is very analog. Uh, something about cryptos for everybody, and it was a play on words about bodies. Uh, in a sense trying to further dema, DEMA democratize crypto and get, get, get it out to the masses.
[00:05:46] Krys: I, I thought it was a clever ad.
[00:05:48] Krys: beer commercials, the typical. Other than that, I, I don’t know. I didn’t study it enough. I was hoping you could give me,
[00:05:54] Luke: I could, I could tell you about the beer I
[00:05:55] Luke: was
[00:05:56] Krys: yeah. Okay. Right.
[00:05:57] Luke: was my focus.
[00:05:59] Krys: All right, so you wanna talk, you wanna talk stocks and investing?
[00:06:04] Luke: Yeah, let’s do that.
[00:06:04] Luke: That’s why we.
[00:06:05] Krys: Let’s start, let’s start with a abstract layer and, and whittle ourselves down to, to the more concrete. I came across a tweet by my man, Zach RINs, known as Chain Link. God, I, I follow everything he says, for obvious reasons.
[00:06:22] Krys: For friends of the Wall Street Wildlife Podcast. If you don’t follow him by the way and you own Chainlink, you, it’s, it’s an absolute must. I find him trustworthy, um, analyst in terms of, uh, yeah, trying to call out BS and helping to shift the narrative around what crypto used to be or, you know, all the circus stuff versus the directionally correct functional uses of it.
[00:06:49] Krys: His post, I’ll, I’ll read, uh, a good portion of it. I think it’s worthwhile. He says, most people are naturally biased toward thinking exclusively in linear terms, and for good reason. Linear thinking works for most things in life, reinforcing this perception. But I do believe we.
[00:07:06] Krys: are on the cusp of exponential economic growth, and 99% of people are not prepared for this.
[00:07:12] Krys: Specifically, I predict the rise of apex companies driven by ai, crypto, and robotics, manually lean and ruthlessly automated at every level with near zero human overhead or friction in unimaginable margins. So three categories, and this is the Confluence ai. He’s calling an infinitely scalable swarm of autonomous self-improving knowledge workers rapidly optimizing every process with superhuman precision and speed.
[00:07:44] Krys: That’s, we’ve been witnessing that ourselves, right? Badge? Crypto. He’s calling the, this is a great definition. Crypto equals elimination of counterparty risk. Through a trustless financial layer, automated business logic execution and cryptographic ver verification. That’s in part the chain link thesis.
[00:08:07] Krys: And then robotics stacked on top of that equals fully autonomous logistics, manufacturing, construction, and transportation via swarm of self repairable and replicable bots. And then of course there will be winners and losers, but. There’s a chart showing linear graph switching over to exponential graph, basically going perpendicular across the the AEs, right?
[00:08:31] Luke: Yeah, it’s a take on that white, but why like graphic of like you are here with like AI as the curve goes up. And we’re like, oh, you know, cute dumb monkey, you know, dung mum monkey AI that can barely do anything. And then just pass the stick figure, like the chart goes exponential and suddenly you’ve got like, you know, God-like super intelligence just around
[00:08:52] Luke: the
[00:08:52] Krys: Right. And this is what it feels like. I mean, I’m all, I, I think, uh, to me it feels like I’m already. Last month, certainly like that, the curve, right? It, I could feel the acceleration, basically. this next chart shows an overlay of the growth curve over 25 year span from electricity, the internet, radio, cell phone usage, and smartphones compared to the line of artificial intelligence. And here what you could see is that all those transformational technologies took had a, um, a gentle, gentle ish slope.
[00:09:35] Krys: Electricity is kind of fascinating. Over 25 years, It kind of took its time accelerating, which is, kind of wild. Uh, internet had a gentle slope and then got pretty steep later on. But when you look at the AI slope, it’s. Near 90 degrees vertical right from the start in, com, especially in comparison to the others.
[00:09:59] Luke: in defense of this chart though, right? What the, what the New York Times should have done, you know, if you put like a logarithmic X-axis. You know, AI is newer and it’s going through its growth so much faster. Electricity, you know, was a long time ago. And so what this chart is saying essentially is like everything we invent now is like ramping to success or failure much, much faster than in the past, and that will only get faster and faster and faster.
[00:10:27] Krys: That’s right. And, so this is what I had in mind when I was thinking about monday.com. An old favorite of mine. I used to have a huge position in Monday, so at least some years ago, uh, I knew this company inside and out,
[00:10:44] Luke: and like we both, so we both, we both owned Monday, um, and we used to use Monday, like I consider myself at least like a year and a half ago. I was like a Monday power user. I built all sorts of like, automations in it, so I felt like I know the
[00:10:56] Luke: product
[00:10:56] Krys: It’s a lovely product But here’s, here’s, here’s monkey’s, pontification. Uh, we knew earnings were coming out this morning. The valuation has been getting better and better is one of the cheapest SaaS companies. And, you know, we fielded questions quite often. You know, is this a buy because it’s such an outlier in terms of cheapness.
[00:11:20] Krys: And I was not, I personally wasn’t seduced by that because I thought, well. cheap for a reason. What’s that reason? So today, as of, uh, right now it’s down 21% after earnings. Here’s the wild
[00:11:35] Krys: And so, uh, first of all, actually, Yeah. so let’s look at this graphic. Here’s the fascinating thing. You see two lines that I made with our friends over at fiscal ai. One is the revenue line is increasing very steadily up into the right. You would think the stock price would follow, correct. However, stock price basically is now, uh, touching or has touched the all time low as of as of today at 77 something a share and
[00:12:13] Luke: Yeah. And it is like now a $4 billion company from being, you know, getting close to like a $10 billion company at one
[00:12:19] Krys: Right. And so there’s a lesson here, uh, for me, is that one, well, there’s many. One cheap does not make a buy necessarily. Strong company performance does not necessarily mean a goodbye. Why would that be? Because we all know or should know, or should continue to reflect on the fact that the market does not care about what happened yesterday.
[00:12:47] Krys: It’s only thinking about future cash flows. And so I didn’t study the earnings in depth. I know they beat on revenue a little bit, but um, free cash flow, I believe was revised a little bit downwards. So it’s almost like what the message we’re getting is obviously to bring these, these charts together is that everyone in this industry knows a company like monday.com.
[00:13:18] Krys: Is the most primed for disruption by ai and that that disruption, because the exponential stuff might happen way, way sooner than we think, because again, we’re not talking about linear, linear, uh, speeds. We’re talking about accelerated, accelerated AI adoptions. And so the, I’ll turn it over to you in a sec badge, but the, the only other nuance I would like to add here. Especially in light of the SaaS apocalypse and so forth, is that to your point, I’m, I still remain ambivalent about cybersecurity SaaS companies because they have that existential risk component, and you’re not just gonna rip out your, your SaaS and only to find out your company was destroyed overnight.
[00:14:08] Krys: However, with a company like Monday. Monkey is actually playing with his crayons this morning. Looking at the charts and, uh, side note, the tools that I taught at my Options University cohort number two. That is exactly what I’m using this morning was using before we started recording to figure out is this still a short from these all time lows and big picture badge? This feels to me like a Kodak moment. Kodak is one of those, you know, tales of, of cautionary tales, right? All of a sudden, digital cameras show up. They don’t immediately get rid of film, but the writing was on the wall and the market responded with forward thinking. I don’t think Monday is long for this world as an investment.
[00:15:02] Krys: Cool.
[00:15:03] Luke: Great. I’m glad you went that way. When you started talking about like crayons and charts, I thought you were gonna say, oh, you know, there’s like a turnaround coming. I’m totally with you. This company unfortunately is doomed. Um, yeah, like if you don’t know what Monday does, it’s like workflow automation.
[00:15:20] Luke: Uh, so it’s like, you know, we used to use it for the podcast, so we’d have like a bunch of topics. They would be like, you know, entries in like the Monday dashboard and then we could add like images and chitchat about things and we could, you know, give ourselves like reminders and tasks to go and research stuff.
[00:15:35] Luke: And then we’ll like pull ’em together into an episode. But you companies use it. To run their business. And actually, I misspoke earlier, they were previously a $15 billion company now down to a $4 billion company. And that’s because like they used, they were doing in their early days, I think they were controversial ’cause they did like a Super Bowl advert, um, like a couple of years ago.
[00:15:57] Luke: But they were doing like doubling revenue every year, more than a hundred percent revenue growth. And now revenue growth is down to like 26%, um, annually. Like growth has, growth has fallen off a cliff. I, you, you’ve sort of quoted me, I dunno if you saw my tweet, like, um, love writing is on the wall for this one.
[00:16:17] Luke: Uh, unfortunately, you know, it’s a great product, but they’re in the wrong place at the wrong time and they’re automating the work of humans. There will be fewer humans do it need work to be done. And they’re like, you know, they’re putting sort of fancy workflows and stuff in place when like, we, AI will just do this stuff.
[00:16:37] Luke: You don’t need to build workflows in Monday, you’ll just tell your corporate version of Beaver, like, go get this done. Remind me in two days time to do this. Go figure this thing out and solve this problem. And like these tools are, are doing this stuff for us today. This is real. And you know, we are only spending like, you know, 10 bucks a day on ai.
[00:16:57] Luke: If you’re a company that’s got, you know, hundreds of thousands of dollars spend every day, imagine the stuff you’re achieving with these
[00:17:03] Krys: Right. You know what I feel sad about? Two things actually. One, you know, the makers of a company like Monday, it’s a fabulous product. It’s a fabulous company, and all of a sudden, you know, the, the, the world changes and it’s dead. I mean, I’m sure they made lots of money in the interim, but um, it’s a little sad to me, you know, humans being obviously, uh, replaced two, you know, who else I feel sad for?
[00:17:34] Krys: There’s gonna be a lot of, I think, long-term investors with that anchoring bias and with the, um, that will make the mistake, classic value, trap mistake. Oh, but the numbers are still so strong. And it’s growing and it’s the cheapest it’s ever been. And, um,
[00:17:55] Luke: Mm-hmm.
[00:17:56] Krys: uh, this, this is in part, in part why the charts help at least help me get a little bit more objective.
[00:18:07] Krys: Like even if I love this company, you know, the, the, the charts force me brutally almost to say, but what’s the data saying? And that’s what I would, uh, urge everybody to. Maybe not, not just for Monday’s case, but there’s other examples of this kind of stuff happening where there’s a divorce between what you think and what’s actually happening.
[00:18:30] Luke: Yeah. You know, uh, our friends over at the shooting the Bull Podcast, drowsy and Bear.
[00:18:35] Krys: Uhhuh,
[00:18:36] Luke: I think they still both own Monday. Um, like guys, the writing’s on the wall with this one.
[00:18:41] Krys: uh oh, bear.
[00:18:43] Luke: Wildlife are telling you to
[00:18:44] Luke: get
[00:18:44] Luke: up.
[00:18:44] Krys: my man. Bear, bear. I, I love Bear Bear and I go way back to Saul’s, Saul’s boards. Uh, he’s a good man. He’s thorough, but hmm.
[00:18:59] Krys: Mm-hmm.
[00:19:00] Luke: Bear says in his tweet, just three hours ago. I’m so triggered right now. Lol. Still holding hashtag stubborn. So there, there you go. A bear. You gotta get off
[00:19:08] Krys: Yeah. Yeah. There’s other honey, there’s, there’s honey elsewhere. Bear your pound monkey or switch over to bananas. Plenty of other bananas.
[00:19:20] Luke: Right?
[00:19:21] Krys: Oh man.
[00:19:22] Luke: You like your comment is, is interesting though, because that is right. Like that, you know, even the greatest investors among us, you. If you’re sitting on like losses, you get like anchored and you end up in these like dis destructive mindsets of, oh, you know, I’m just gonna start doing some weird stuff to try and get even, you know, I just wanna get my money back.
[00:19:44] Luke: Or this company, you know, you’ve followed it and you’ve put so much time and passion into researching it, like you find it very hard to put it aside, but you know, you gotta move on when a business model is truly broken.
[00:19:56] Krys: Absolutely not easy to do, but the numbers, I mean, that’s why we, if you go back to the chart, I posted it, I mean, it’s kind of staggering. Revenue is, is is like a rocket ship up into the right and the stock price is down into, to the right. So that’s, that’s a, that’s a bad situation.
[00:20:19] Luke: Yeah. You know, I love to say in this situation, like what goes down can still go lower.
[00:20:24] Luke: Right the, the floor for this stuff, the floor is zero. Literally the company is insolvent and then it goes insolvent and it suddenly shoots to the moon. ’cause Reddit like go crazy about it. But you know, that’s not investing.
[00:20:36] Luke: That’s just circus
[00:20:37] Krys: yeah, for better or worse, right? For better or worse? Um, too bad.
[00:20:43] Krys: Too bad.
[00:20:44] Luke: Yeah.
[00:20:44] Luke: should we talk about a company that is not, uh, well, that is shooting to the moon and, uh, in all, every way. Like Tesla, when they, when they merge with SpaceX and open ai, they’re gonna, like, Musk will finally have his, uh, you know, his ex like super company. But so not gonna go deep on this one, but we did catch the earnings call, uh, last week and I thought it was quite interesting.
[00:21:07] Luke: That they’re now demising manufacturing of the Model S and the Model X at their Fremont factory, and they’re now pivoting that manufacturing fully over to Optimus, their robot.
[00:21:20] Krys: yes, there’s, right, Yeah, The super company is, is what what were the pieces? I, sorry to backtrack. It’s SpaceX acquired X ai, right? So the, the.
[00:21:34] Luke: Yeah, not sure who acquired who, but they’ve merged now while they’re in the process of finalizing that,
[00:21:38] Krys: Yeah. I mean, well
[00:21:39] Krys: it
[00:21:39] Luke: And then I think SpaceX is so then that combined company. Is rumored to be IPO-ing middle of this year, which is great for me. I’m hope, hopefully I’m a SpaceX shareholder. Um, and then there’s talk that maybe those things all merge with Tesla, but there might be some shenanigans going on here with like Musks, um, incentive awards, like I’m assuming perhaps naively that those will be adjusted for the, you know, the combined
[00:22:07] Krys: Yeah. Right. I mean, that’s, that’s nuts. But that kind of company could have a path pretty clearly to be the world’s most valuable by, maybe even not by by long shot.
[00:22:20] Krys: And I know this is, this is common father, But that itself is impressive. But when you also have a madman like Musk in charge of it all, who’s ruthless in every dimension, including knowing how to execute on the most difficult engineering tasks, it’s, it is a monster in the making.
[00:22:40] Krys: I would, um, I would buy shares. It would
[00:22:43] Krys: be fun to join you as a SpaceX, OO owner too.
[00:22:47] Luke: yeah, totally. Yeah, yeah. Agree. Yeah. Like if I, if I, if I do vest into being a owner of public SpaceX, I don’t plan to sell, like, that’ll be a nice, pretty chunky position in my portfolio if it, if it goes public at like a one, one and a half trillion dollar, uh, valuation, but.
[00:23:05] Luke: Like, yeah, I’m in for the long haul. I, I said way back, like, I, I thought that SpaceX was gonna be the world’s first $10 trillion company and you know, maybe they won’t be, maybe like Nvidia or someone will get their first, but like, they’re certainly gonna be one of the world’s biggest companies.
[00:23:19] Krys: Yeah, that’s an easy path for sure. But about the demise of, uh, s and x, uh, probably time, obviously. Uh, uh, those vehicles were, had it had their day. But you know, it’s also interesting, you could see the, um, evolution of the master plan that was never about the cars. The cars were always a stepping stone.
[00:23:40] Krys: Start with the roaster. Then the s the s to the three. Now they’re facing that out. But Yeah.
[00:23:45] Krys: now the cars are being replaced by the robots. So, uh.
[00:23:50] Krys: I don’t think Tesla ever gets rid of all the cars, obviously. Right. Obviously. But the robo taxis will be the main thing. And then some model threes, but eventually, probably the model threes will be, you know, the ones, so anyway, Tesla is not a car company.
[00:24:08] Krys: I mean, God, that’s not, that’s not anything new,
[00:24:11] Luke: Well, anyway, they, they’ve got a goal of producing a million. Optimists units annually, but that’s obviously many years away. There’s still like a whole bunch of engineering and software challenges to solve. Um, but they’re on track. Like, you know, I, I dunno if I said this so on the pod, but I certainly said it to you privately.
[00:24:27] Luke: Like I was all, I was ranting about, you know, Musk is, they’re making a mistake and they’re sort of clinging to this idea that they don’t use lidar in their cars and they’re just gonna do a vision. And I, my position was like. That’s dumb. The cost of lidar has fallen through the floor. It’s like a few hundred bucks to add it to a vehicle.
[00:24:46] Luke: Why not have just extra data, which means extra safety? But I, I had a, last month I had a model three with like hardware four and FSD in the mountains and like, holy Christ, this thing was so capable, like drove me from like a city downtown. Highways icy, like poor visibility, mountain roads, and it did like a two hour drive.
[00:25:14] Luke: I didn’t touch anything. I just kind of sat there and gawped at how competent it was. So, yeah, like it’s real. They’ve, they’ve, they’ve fixed it. They’ve solved FSD, they’ve.
[00:25:24] Krys: They, yeah, they did it. I’m mad. I’m mad at Tesla. ’cause I have the 18 and 21 model three. So hardware three and the retrofit that they promised is going to, it’s not a simple retrofit. And you know, obviously there’s nar peep from the Tesla folks when monkey could get his. Hardware four, but even on three, I, I’ve, I’ve, you know, I experienced the same thing, so I can’t imagine how much better the, the, you know, version four was.
[00:25:53] Luke: would you, so let’s say you upgraded your car and I, I think there is, talk about them grandfathering in owners of certain
[00:26:02] Luke: vehicles that you
[00:26:03] Krys: that’s a given. That’s not talk that’s been that, that’s been official. Just know. No, talk about when monkey gets to schedule the operation.
[00:26:12] Luke: Right. So would you, so say, let’s say you didn’t own FSD though. Would you pay a hundred dollars a month for that capability?
[00:26:18] Krys: Probably at the point where I could legitimately relax in the, in the in, say the passenger seat or the driver’s seat, and like look at my phone kind of situation.
[00:26:34] Luke: Right.
[00:26:34] Krys: Um, before that I still like driving. Like I enjoyed driving. So, uh, for, you know, highway trips, autopilot is good enough. You know, like I, that’s, that’s, that’s not worth a hundred dollars.
[00:26:50] Krys: But if all of a sudden all the commute time could be spent legitimately relaxing, that’s a whole nother ballgame. I could train. Right. Like, like that’s why I, we, we love going on trains because you get to just exist. Yeah, That, that’s worth a hundred bucks for sure.
[00:27:09] Luke: for sure. Yeah. Like it is revolutionary. I buy one for my parents and then, you know, that’s it. They, they don’t have to book taxis to go out to
[00:27:17] Luke: restaurants and stuff. Yeah.
[00:27:18] Krys: that’s such a, Yeah,
[00:27:19] Krys: That’s such an obvious use case. The elderly get to. be mobile again. No worries about eye eyesight issues. yeah,
[00:27:27] Krys: That’s fantastic,
[00:27:28] Luke: Just in case he’s listening to it. My dad is a very good driver and still driving and loves his car, but yeah.
[00:27:33] Krys: Uh, badge. Um, do we wanna talk about, uh, Patreon question that monkey got?
[00:27:41] Luke: Yeah,
[00:27:41] Krys: So, our, our main tiger, benal tiger over on, Patreon. Uh, which is patreon.com/wall Street Wildlife. Ask the following about the company Oddity, ticker, ODD, question from monkey using your framework. question from monkey using your framework.
[00:28:02] Krys: Buy with momentum because the market usually knows more than you or buy if you know more than the market. Assuming maybe incorrectly, you’re not an expert on beauty and wellness products. Ah, the assumptions we make. Monkey, monkey is a, a beauty expert. ’cause he’s, anyway, um, I’m looking at this chart wondering why you bought ODD when you did, can you elucidate? Um, and so what, what his chart shows is a chart sloping down into the right, meaning going the rough direction. So in one sense. Uh, I violated a very basic rule, which is trade with momentum. And as of now, I, I was wrong. I’m down, whatever I bought it. 36, it’s around 30. So one, let me acknowledge the error, but why did I do it?
[00:28:54] Krys: It’s about the process, right? And so this is a little crude, but I drew in some basic support and resistance levels. And what you could see, uh, is that at the point where I bought, marked by the lower banana signal, uh, ity had reached, uh, support level from way back, uh, I’m sorry, not way back, but from way before the major up, uh, uptick. It, the, the chart for you, non-visual YouTubers is kind of similar to PayPal. There’s a flat and there’s a major up mountain, and then there’s a descent from the mountain. And so in one sense, when you, here’s the lesson, you draw the levels to get a sense of supply and demand, and as the levels descend, that those support levels in the sense can become stronger.
[00:29:51] Krys: And so monkey weighted. To make his purchase until the levels got three deep. And then at the time I bought, there was what looked like a low reversal, so I thought that could have legitimately been the low based on on market memory. However, of course, it reversed and then went further down to the next level, which is still pretty strong. What I wanna communicate, there’s another, there’s another piece to this, but what I wanna communicate is. Uh, these things are not magic. They’re not, there’s nothing that’s a hundred percent certain, but I had a very clear sense of good entry points, and I made my first pur purchase at a fundamentally solid support level. So I thought two, I only bought one share, which means nothing out of context, but to me it, it was a small nibble entry position. In part because I knew I was going against momentum. So until you have the, the reverse of momentum, I wasn’t gonna go in big, but I did want to get my foot in the door. But that’s huge.
[00:31:04] Krys: That’s, that’s different than had I gone in with a 10% position, but three stacked on top of all of that. There’s a great chart So this is what’s interesting is this is uh, a chart. You see often if you study SaaS companies that shows the rate of growth, which is the horizontal axis.
[00:31:25] Krys: And on,
[00:31:25] Krys: the vertical axis you see the EV per sales ratio and you basically get a good sense of which companies are growing the fastest and are cheap. So basically the bottom right quadrant is where the value stuff is right now, oddity does sell beauty products. Uh, but they also have this AI lab that helps people configure, uh, skin tones and get their, um, like a more professional data based, figure out exactly what product you need versus the, the woman at the, at the, at the store telling you anyway, that, that, that, that’s, anyway.
[00:32:05] Luke: hang on, hang on, hang on, hang on, hang on. I, I’ve forgotten the oddity was the beauty company. What the hell is it doing on a SaaS company’s
[00:32:13] Krys: No, no, no. that
[00:32:14] Krys: that’s point. No, no, no. That’s the point. That’s the point. That’s the point. This doesn’t belong on the SaaS. SaaS. Uh, it’s not a SaaS company. It has a little bit of AI modeling. Right? But no, it’s not a SaaS company. But what made what made this chart fascinating was this user, uh, Sergey, C-V-C-Y-W.
[00:32:35] Krys: Said if Oddity was a SaaS company, what you would see is in that bottom right quadrant that that’s highlighted, you see that it’s growing close to 30% a year, and it’s PS ratio I think is about?
[00:32:53] Krys: two or three, which means that it would be completely a complete outlier in terms of the comparison of rate of growth, plus how cheap it is.
[00:33:05] Krys: Now this, you may, I see your expression right. But here’s the thing. Badge beauty products, especially on the subscription, ’cause these guys sell subscriptions, are repeatable. Once you get a a, a a person buying beauty products, they tend to stay with that company. Forget that I, you’re, you’re about to like explode.
[00:33:28] Krys: Your facial expressions are about to explode, but I, I’ll let you have a shot at This.
[00:33:32] Krys: but that’s not the point. I’m not saying this is a SaaS company. What I’m saying is to return to my main thesis is when you see a stock all of a sudden continuing to descend, I bought against the momentum because the valuation became stupidly attractive. And I marry the two, and now I have a good entry point and I have ways to DCA once I see the reversals take place. Go ahead. ’cause you’re about to explode.
[00:34:06] Luke: I just laugh my head off. It’s such garbage analysis by this Sergey guy. Like, I know I’ve got no problem with your investment in Oddity. It’s not for me. Like I just, that, that feel sector doesn’t interest me in any way. But this guy is just smoking something funky, right? If he’s talking about this like it’s a SaaS company and saying, oh, you know, look at the growth versus the valuation.
[00:34:29] Luke: There’s, I, I know the SAS apocalypse has happened and all these companies are now like in struggling. But if we wind the clock back, say, you know, 18 months pre a pre, like this massive AI boom, um, SaaS companies were valued like that because like the marginal cost of selling another license is almost zero, right?
[00:34:49] Luke: Land and expand its software. Makeup ain’t software. You’ve gotta manufacture makeup, right? You wanna sell like another, I don’t know, whatever, like lip filler or something, whatever the hell the thing is, you have to manufacture that. It’s a physical thing. It’s, it’s not SaaS. So your, you know, your margins.
[00:35:08] Luke: It’s completely different to
[00:35:10] Krys: Yeah, yeah, yeah. There’s, that’s, yeah, that’s, that’s not the point.
[00:35:14] Luke: I’m not critiquing you. I’m
[00:35:16] Luke: critiquing. Sergei
[00:35:17] Krys: no, no, no, but I, I, but no, you should critique me in the sense that I thought this chart was useful enough, because even though it’s apples to oranges, what this chart chart really shows me very clearly is that this is a company that’s growing very quickly, and it’s selling for a ridiculously low.
[00:35:38] Krys: Multiple, two or three forward sales with because I know the company, it has a fourth brand that it’s about to announce that’s going to add to the revenue pile. And so all I was trying to say is the valuation was stupid cheap. The support levels now are being breached and we’re basically at the close to the lowest dungeon floor.
[00:36:04] Krys: And so to Ben Gal’s question is. Yeah.
[00:36:08] Krys: I made a mis, I made it’s, it’s a mistake in hindsight because the price continued going lower, but I had a justifiable reason to enter against the trend, hoping to quote unquote catch the bottom. I didn’t, it went lower. But now I have even more, you know, once it turns, I’m ready to act with more decisiveness and to increase the position because I have these kind of three layers stacked on top of each other that give me a pretty accurate, um, view that, uh, that it’s gonna be soon time to, to go bigger.
[00:36:43] Luke: I think that’s fair. That’s fair. And like we, you, as you said, like in your options course that you delivered yesterday, like you gave us a bit of a masterclass very quickly in technical analysis and like, I don’t use that and I don’t ever plan to use that, but I think you have persuaded me that it’s more than just like magic and mumbo jumbo.
[00:37:03] Luke: Um, and so, you know, the way you use tools like Trading View. And the way you’re gonna teach our Patreon community to use those two that can be additive to like a fundamental understanding of a company.
[00:37:16] Krys: Right. And, uh, thanks for saying that badge, uh, for our listeners, especially on the beginning side. Here’s how I would frame all this. At first, it might be overwhelming to even move beyond I like a company or I don’t, okay, that’s fine. But when you get more serious about investing as a way to make money or as a call it, um, a skillset or. You know, go, uh, graduating from dabbler to hobbyist to eventually higher levels of proficiency. These tools, the ability to draw, say a straight line to see where supply meets demand, it’s not complicated. It’s objective, and it really helps give structure to your narrative idea. And when you could use both on top of something like a fin fiscal ai. Uh, chart you make by combining revenue growth with price and, you know, or this SaaS chart that gives you a relative view of where companies are next to each other. Then all of a sudden you’re moving beyond hope. Like, I hope Oddity goes up because I like, you know, the products it makes.
[00:38:37] Luke: Yeah.
[00:38:38] Krys: Which by the way, since we have it up, uh, with this SaaS, uh, companies chart, I haven’t looked at one of these in, in a little while, but it is interesting.
[00:38:45] Krys: Notice Monday is on here and it’s also one of the, uh, you know, cheapest and it’s the only competitor if in this world where Oddity was a SaaS company, the closest Com two competitors in terms of cheapness and uh, for rate of growth are curiously, Duolingo and Rubrik. Um, so cheap for a reason. Again, you know, we, we return to that.
[00:39:13] Luke: that’s right. Well, you know, companies end up. On like, you know, the, the sort of the bottom side of this chart for lots of reasons. But one of them is like the business model is broken and they’re cheap, as you say, cheap for a reason. ’cause they’re doomed. And it’s like the skill and the art of an investor is to identify, you know, like the blobs on this chart that are going to be future growth giants.
[00:39:37] Luke: And they’re just like in a, you know, they’re in a
[00:39:40] Luke: depression versus the ones that are truly doomed and like on a irre recoverable
[00:39:44] Luke: path.
[00:39:45] Krys: By the way, flashing news badge. Red alert, uh, while we were taping Monkey’s Limit Order to Short Monday using, uh, near term put hit, and he’s currently up a cool 6%.
[00:40:00] Luke: What in
[00:40:02] Krys: Yeah. Yeah. So I’m officially a Monday Bear. Sorry, bear. Oh no. Oh, No, Monkey is is bearish on bears. Bears Love child. Ooh. Them fighting words.
[00:40:16] Krys: Maybe we gotta have those F fellas on the show. that. would make a great episode. We got, we gotta, I, Yeah. we, we should do that.
[00:40:24] Luke: I don’t, I don’t know them personally, but we do, like, we’ve, we swapped messages from time to time and I think I said to bear a few months ago, like, I’m enjoying listening to their pod. Um, it’s, it’s very good. We do recommend it, like, we’ll put a link in our show notes. Um, I said like, listening to he and drowsy.
[00:40:39] Luke: It’s like listening to, uh, like a more sensible version of Christophe. Like you guys kind of talk about the same things and believe in the same things, but you guys are a bit more grounded in some of your wild thinking. Whereas my like neighborhood monkey can go like way off the deep end with some of his
[00:40:54] Luke: thesis
[00:40:55] Luke: sometimes,
[00:40:56] Krys: you
[00:40:56] Krys: know, let me pull back the curtain a little bit. I I hope, I don’t think Bayer will mind me saying this During the early stages of the Eos monkeys, uh, fascination where the company really was, uh, in trouble, bear and I had a conversation and, and, and he was in hindsight, wisely, saying, are you out of your mind? And monkey lost, you know, half his dunkaroos in that, in that, um, in that moment. Luckily, he, he made it all back, but, um. Anyway. Great, great, great. Beasties, those two. Let’s, yeah.
[00:41:36] Luke: It’s probably, it’s probably time in the show now for you to like launch the attack on me, ’cause I think you’ve got some comments about Greg’s
[00:41:42] Luke: sausage Thank you. Thank you. I did, no, no deep research on this badge, but rumor has it that Greg sausages. Alerted investors that they are seeing a direct impact on the weight loss drugs that fewer people, I suppose, are, uh, now going to be eating their sausages because of the correlation with those, uh, GLP ones.
[00:42:09] Krys: Uh, and so the question to badge as I highlighted at the top of the show is. Let’s test your stubbornness. Are you, are you, you are, we know you’re ethically and morally completely wrong on this one. So that’s a given. But given the new data coming in, right, are you gonna double down and say, no, Greg’s or die, you know, uh, are you going to maybe rethink and try to, you know, do a little more research and consider, eh, or are you?
[00:42:39] Krys: gonna be sensible and say, no, the writing’s on the wall, you know, uh, you’re out.
[00:42:44] Luke: I’ve gotta own something in like the boring dividend paying stock world and I wanna own more stuff like that. And I’m finding it so hard to get motivated by owning anything. I don’t want to own like industrials, I don’t wanna own banks. Um. It’s hard to find stuff that’s not like tech and growth and exciting and like, you know, sci-fi and the stuff that really kind of turns me on as an investor.
[00:43:10] Luke: Um, I’m not particularly passionate about Greg’s, but like, I think it’s a, it’s a solid company. I’m standing by my thesis. I’ve gotta own something in that space. It’s a, I hadn’t really thought about GLP ones and Greg’s. I do know that they’ve been pivoting their menu to slightly more healthy options, I think have like.
[00:43:29] Luke: That some campaign like a year ago exit, Greg’s, stuff like that. So they are, and the fact that they’re talking about it on earnings calls, like they’re aware of it, um, they have got a bit of a history of like, excuse making, uh, they blamed the weather for like poor growth last year. And like guys like put that shit aside.
[00:43:48] Luke: Just focus on the business, stop trying to make excuses. But yeah, like I’ve, it’s a tiny allocation. It’s, it’s kind of, it’s fun if only to have it in the portfolio. ’cause it gives you something to like
[00:43:58] Luke: bark
[00:43:58] Krys: Right at at this point, right? The great, the main value of Greg’s is the entertainment value. Two. Can you ever imagine walking into Greg’s to order a salad? Would you like a salad
[00:44:10] Krys: with your sludge sausage, sir? Oh my God.
[00:44:15] Luke: You’re right, you’re right. It’s, it’s off brand. Yeah. Okay. Yeah.
[00:44:18] Krys: Okay, so, uh, verdict is in Badger Is is gonna double down and become twice as stubborn. No selling of, of Greg’s sausage. The show stays alive. We get, we retain our viewers who tune in every week for the regular sausage.
[00:44:34] Luke: Like if you’re listening and if you’ve got a good dividend growth idea for me. And I have been chatting to our friends at the Dividend Growth podcast, Derek and edgy and like I’m trying to source ideas from them too. I’m just try, like, I bought Brookfield Renewable a couple of like a month or two ago.
[00:44:51] Luke: I’m kind of liking that, like that’s interesting. It, that excites me. I’m liking what I’m hearing on the earnings call I’m listened to most recently. It’s a great dividend payer. If you, if you can think of a company you think I’ve overlooked that isn’t gonna bore me to tears. And isn’t like a Greg’s and he is gonna pay like a healthy, like I’m looking here for like, you know, directionally at least a three and a half percent dividend.
[00:45:16] Luke: Then like message us on YouTube or on the Patreon, let me know ’cause I’m trying to find stuff like that for my portfolio.
[00:45:21] Krys: if edgy can’t, can’t tell us, then who can. Uh, I am curious why you resist Nintendo. Maybe that’s for, for another day. Maybe you haven’t done the deep dive. Maybe you haven’t listened to Monkey at all when he, uh, which, which wouldn’t be the first time.
[00:45:37] Krys: But, uh, that’s my recommendation, uh, badge. So, in other words, in in other news, what has our very own beloved beaver been up to? What hap we leave him alone for, for a few hours and what is it that we come back to?
[00:45:54] Luke: yeah, like he, I mean he’s, as you say, right, he’s messaging us. We, every morning we wake up to like a couple of things he’s been working on. Um, he thought it’d be useful to add a Safari stock to this week’s episode. So he’s done his own research and he’s suggested a company called. Celestica ticker CLSI think it, so I’ve, I, I read a tiny bit about this, but I’m just gonna pick out a few things from Beaver’s thesis.
[00:46:20] Luke: Uh, he’s telling us it’s a behind the scenes company that is like the muscle powering AI data centers and they build ethernet switches, custom server platforms and networking hardware that makes AI
[00:46:34] Luke: actually
[00:46:35] Krys: like the Nest
[00:46:36] Luke: Um. I guess, yeah, I guess. I guess so. Yep. Um, and he, he shared some of the numbers. Um, market cap around $34 billion.
[00:46:45] Luke: I think it’s actually a Canadian company, but there’s like a nice, a listing on the nice as well, New York Stock Exchange. So 34 billion new US revenue, 2025 revenue of 12 and a half billion dollars up 28% year over year with guidance for this year for $16 billion. That’ll be like. Sort of mid thirties growth.
[00:47:07] Luke: So it’s like mid 30% growth is decent for a hardware company. You know, it doesn’t belong on like your SaaS dashboards. Beaver likes it. I’m not sure personally. Um, and like in Beaver’s defense, he was running on clawed Opus 4.5 and we burned through like $200 of your cord Claude credits in about six days.
[00:47:30] Luke: So we, we can’t afford to run him on Claude, so he is now. We’ve like followed the pack and he’s now running on Kimi K 2.5, which is like, I think it’s like an open source Chinese model, and we’re running it on open router and he’s now costing us like a couple of dollars a day.
[00:47:46] Krys: If this isn’t a beggar bowl segment of Taylor Beggar bowl segment for us. If our Patreons want, um, more optimized beaver, then you gotta, you gotta, you gotta upgrade those, those subscriptions. So we could pay Beaver our new, uh, our first employee a little more so that he, he gives us some, uh, more sophisticated analysis.
[00:48:09] Krys: But this isn’t really about the stock pick per se. It’s more that all of a sudden, you know, we get to wake up and say, huh, we have a new company to look at. This is what the AI is thinking, and we could put our own lens to it. And it’s, it’s actually, uh, I don’t wanna say comprehensive, but the format, I mean, it’s interesting enough to then start digging further.
[00:48:41] Krys: And it’s fun too.
[00:48:42] Luke: Yeah. Yeah, totally. Yeah, yeah. Always. We always game for new ideas and if you’ve, you know, if you’re a listener and you’ve got a stock you’d like us to take a look at, then like hit us up on. Wall Street wildlife.com, which is our Patreon or on the YouTube channel, or drop us a comment on Spotify, like we try and reply to everything.
[00:49:00] Krys: Awesome badge. So this might be a good, good endpoint for our episode. I hope it’s not being, uh, overbearing when I say that. Having finished teaching, the second cohort of the options, university Monkey is trying to tie up some loose ends having to do with the legal entity and the liability stuff and fixing some remaining bugs. But I’m hoping to have that out into the wild, maybe within a week or two, depending on how it goes. And having now taught it. I’m convinced that it’s not just for options people, but there are so many sound investing principles woven throughout it about risk management and behavioral dynamics and using technical analysis, and I’m just extraordinarily proud.
[00:49:55] Krys: And I think the feedback we got was, was, uh, on the very enthusiastic end of the spectrum, so. I can’t. So what I told the last, uh, group was that I’m already committing to doing live q and a sessions. I’ll figure out my schedule, maybe on Fridays. Maybe on Saturdays I’ll show up on whatever, zoom or whatever, you know, call and field questions and help people learn how to use the tool. I invite everyone to, to, uh, when it goes live too. Get on board.
[00:50:36] Luke: Yeah, I think you’ve bought, you’ve built, um, like a really valuable product that’s more than just like training. It’s actually. Like simulators and tools and like journaling. There’s a lot of strong, um, like alpha generating investing behaviors that you’re basically holding users’ hands on. And then, you know, pairing that access to the tool with like your weekly surgeries, however you’re gonna sort of put that together, I think that could be incredible value, incredibly valuable for investors to like up their skillset.
[00:51:11] Luke: I learned a lot sitting in like both cohorts. I may not use the technical analysis piece, but I’ll certainly use like the more sophisticated use of options as like insurance and income generating, um, assets. Like I’ve started do that already now, thanks to what I’ve learned from you. So, um, yeah, it’s good
[00:51:32] Krys: Awesome. Yeah, very. So all in all what we have going on over on our Wall Street Wildlife, um, not just the university but on our platform and our communities really come into life. We have the next picks. We have the community portfolio going. The discussions are, you know, we’re at the point where our members are replying to one another.
[00:51:55] Krys: And so it’s, it’s that inflection point and we brought something beautiful to life, so. Uh, check us out over on patreon.com, wall Street Wildlife. If you are hearing this on the Spotifys or the YouTubes, make some friends join. Join the Jungle.
[00:52:11] Luke: go check out. Um, like there, there’s a couple of free posts on there, so you don’t even have to become a member. Just go and browse. Go check out the Pinned post, which is our King of the Jungle tracker. Like it’s a new spreadsheet for tracking our King of the jungle challenge that Beaver built. You know, with a little bit of steer from me.
[00:52:28] Luke: But it’s really, it’s a really elegant way now of tracking and monitoring how the monkey portfolio is performing versus the Badger portfolio versus the new community portfolio. And like I say, in full transparency, ’cause like in the growth and tech like blow up. We are now, all three portfolios are now underperforming.
[00:52:49] Luke: The s and p, like, that’s just kind of the way of it. And that’s like year to date. Um, that’s just kind of the way of it as a growth investor. Like you have your high times and you have your low times, but what we are doing at Wall Street Wildlife is just being transparent about the whole show. And if we, I’ve said it before, but I, I sort of posted it on the Patreon recently, like the value of this community, I, I’m not predicting that we’re gonna go into like total like tech Armageddon.
[00:53:15] Luke: A multi-year drawdowns, but we might be, you know, maybe we will. And if we do, that is really where the value of this community is gonna, uh, really show itself because Christophe and I have invested through tough times before and we’re gonna invest through, you know, many, many tough times to come. And we’re just gonna try and show transparently how we manage volatility and manage ourselves when like times are tough.
[00:53:42] Luke: And hopefully that’s helpful for any newer investor. Who’s like, this is their first rodeo.
[00:53:47] Krys: And of course, before we close badge, let’s thank fiscal ai, our essential stock research platform. We use it every day. We showed it during today’s episode. It’s our one stop shop for stock research offering up to 20 years of global financial data. Um, it’s just a fantastic tool. Use our link fiscal.ai/wildlife for two free weeks of fiscal pro, no credit card needed, and a 15% discount.
[00:54:15] Krys: If you upgrade fiscal.ai/wildlife badge, you ready to become a beast of an investor.
[00:54:25] Luke: I am Christophe, and your journey starts here.
[00:54:28]
