🏆 King of the Jungle Year 2 Results – The verdict is in! Krzysztof crushes it with a 380% return while Luke delivers a solid 93%. We break down the numbers, discuss what worked, and preview Year 3
🌐 Community Portfolio Launch – Wall Street Wildlife introduces its third competitor! Sixteen compelling stock nominations from our Patreon community, including Novo Nordisk, The Trade Desk, Reddit, and more. Your votes will decide the winners! $RDDT $NVO $TTD
📊 Technical Analysis 101 – a masterclass on support and resistance lines using TradingView. Learn how to identify momentum, draw critical price levels, and time your entries like a pro (featuring live examples with Novo Nordisk)
🚗 Luke’s Uber Investment Thesis – Why Uber could be the autonomous vehicle winner without owning a single car. Luke explores the Tesla, Waymo, and Nvidia landscape and makes his case for Uber as the demand aggregator $UBER $TSLA $GOOGL
💡 Patience Over Panic – How long-term investors can use simple technical indicators to improve entry points without abandoning fundamental analysis
🎉 Potential Vegas Meetup 2026 – We’re workshopping an April 2026 live meetup in Las Vegas. Patreon members, stay tuned for details!
Segments:
00:00 Cold Open & Year 2 Results Reveal
06:00 King of the Jungle Performance Breakdown
16:00 Community Portfolio Introduction & Voting
26:00 Technical Analysis Masterclass: Support & Resistance
42:00 Live TradingView Demo: Novo Nordisk Analysis
01:00:00 Luke’s Uber Investment Thesis
01:16:00 Closing Thoughts & 4K Subscriber Celebration
WSW – EP106 – Video – Without Ads
Luke: [00:00:00] I have just bought a global transportation company that could become an autonomous vehicle leader despite owning no cars.
Krys: it’s not only about stock picking and naming tickers, it’s like, oh, wow. Amazing things happen when you connect on the human level, with real humans whose lives were changing
Luke: you came out and nowhere. Like, what, three or four months ago? And you have absolutely whooped my ass
Krys: I hate to break it to you, buddy, but the beatings will continue until morale improves
Luke: Welcome to the Deep Investing Jungle with your host Salute, the Badger Hallard, and Christophe the Monkey Pi Kaki.
In this week’s episode, it is the end of year two of the King of the Jungle Portfolio Challenge. This [00:01:00] year, Christophe and I were adding $200 each, and we’re gonna answer the question, who turned that hoard of cash into the most bananas? And did we both beat the market? Plus, this week, Christophe is gonna give us a masterclass in technical analysis for long-term investors using Trading View and.
I have just bought a global transportation company that could become an autonomous vehicle leader despite owning no cars. Hang around for the back of the episode to hear about that one.
Krys: Fantastic badger this morning. You’re lucky to have me because your pal monkey nearly killed himself yesterday with one too many banana flavored And I remember, what is it two weeks ago that you showed up and you were sounding a little worse for the wear and you, you said, you know, hangovers now are like a two day thing.
Can I tell you? Can I tell you? I think I, I, if what, what I went through yesterday felt [00:02:00] even worse.
You know, You were, you were drinking banana pants, right? Is that a cocktail or That’s a.
Uh, that that was a cocktail that I drank. Two, I I’m not gonna name the number of drinks I had. That’s, uh, that’s, it was, it was, it was a disastrous quantity, but yes, banana pants. I, I had a banana pants cocktail. And one, uh, uh, there’s a mezcal speakeasy in Austin, in which they had a banana mezcal thing. And so I drank that too.
Uh, you know what the tragic thing was being, being a disciplined, being a disciplined gorilla. Sometimes I woke up at 5 45 the next day, meaning the same day technically.
’cause whatever went to bed at. Ungodly hour. And then I went to the gym. I went to the gym and I did a good hard workout, right? And I’m like, [00:03:00] okay, you know, like this is, I’m, I’m, you know, I’m going to, I’m going to, you ain’t the boss of me. And I was like, okay, this isn’t so bad. And then was not till like two or 3:00 PM that the real hangover just like descended.
Like a, like a, oh my God.
Luke: Wow. Very good.
Krys: Oh,
Luke: effort, Jim. I, I literally like put hangover in my diary. If I know I’m going out for a big one, I just block out usually like Sunday. It’s gonna be like a day on the sofa with the cat. That’s, I know I’m all on good for.
Krys: kids. Do not try this at home.
Luke: Or if you want a kids, if you want to try it with us, we are have the inkling of the concept of a plan to get together with a couple of our Patreons potentially in Las Vegas in April, 2026. So stick a hangover in your diary if you think you might be able to join us.
Krys: Fantastic. That’s right. We were, we were workshopping an idea. Is Wall Street Wildlife [00:04:00] ready for, its kind of like inaugural first live person meetup and, uh, you know, talking to some of our Patreons and I think, I think we could give it a go. So we’re tentatively putting, uh, April of 26th as, uh, a potential get together in the city of sin. Uh, so, so kids, if you’re listening, or Beasties if you’re listening to this, you know Yeah. Put hangover, uh, recovery needed for a full week, uh, sometime in early April.
Luke: Awesome. We more details to follow. It may not happen. We’re still trying to figure out if we can make this work, but to be honest, we’ve both been inspired by like in real life get togethers we’ve both had in the last month or two with a bunch of our Patreons, which is just like an incredible coterie of really interesting folk out there.
So why not, uh, get together on mass if we can make it happen?
Krys: Yeah. I mean, [00:05:00] this is the proof in the pudding that we’ve been talking about that in the age of ai, it’s not only about stock picking and NN naming tickers, it’s like, oh, wow. Amazing things happen when you connect on the human level, uh, with real humans whose lives were changing and. Uh, they’re making our community just, you know, uh, banger and, and we’re just having a good old time.
And it’s, it’s making all of it worth it. So, to our, to our jungle Beasties, thank you. To our Patreons. Thank you. Uh, if you’re still, if you’re hearing us on YouTube, check us out on Patreon, wall Street Wildlife.
Luke: All right, shall we get it over with? I need to rip off the pain of congratulating you on your incredible performance in King of the Jungle, round two.
Krys: Yes, I think you should. And it’s, it’s too bad. It’s too bad that we have an ocean [00:06:00] between this badge because I would like to have received from you, uh, in person this year’s the Holy Trophy, the
Luke: if you’re not on the YouTubes, he’s got a fine looking banana trophy right there.
Krys: This was yours last year. You forgot, and, uh, you know this, I mean, it was yours. I you never got it because I held onto it. But thi this, if you go back to the episodes, this was Badgers sitting virtually on Badger Shelf for the 2004 season. But now Monkey is putting, putting this, maybe this will go on top of the, the Christmas tree this year, but yes,
Luke: It is very well
deserved.
Krys: yeah.
Luke: let’s take a look at the actual results. ’cause this is just incredible. Check out this ridiculous chart, right? So get on the YouTubes and just check this thing out, right?
We, we broadly tracked each other. Like if you were, [00:07:00] if you cut off like the last, what, three months you would see like the huge hole that Christophe got into at the end of year one. And he finished year one actually down. He lost money with your reliable badger. Made like a good market beating return, and then Badger just, I’ve just delivered nice, consistent, solid gains month after month.
And then you came out and nowhere. Like, what, three or four months ago? And you have absolutely whooped my ass. Um, so the official closing prices, the, the year two runs from 1st of November, 2024 to 1st of November, 2025. Um, we both started year two in different places. I was quite nicely ahead with about $2,700.
You started year two with $1,600. We added [00:08:00] $200 a month each, and we managed it as best we could. And we both tried to manage our King of the Jungle portfolios, just like we manage our real money. You know, our, I call it my retirement portfolio. You know, you have your other portfolio where you turned your 1600 bucks plus $200 a month into $14,638, whereas I turned my.
Like little two and a half thousand dollars into $8,800. Like we have both beaten the market soundly. But your 380% return in year two or audited as well. Uh, there were, there was some controversy,
there was con, there was some controversy about the results. In fact, because you might remember listeners, if you go back a bunch of episodes, Christophe got a bit excited and, uh, there was a potential bottle of [00:09:00] rum whiskey bet on whether Christophe would deliver more than a 500% return. And he, he was reporting to me that he was on like a nearly a 10, well, a 1000% return.
Uh,
and even.
Krys: eight at some point. Yeah.
Luke: Yeah, like you got ahead of yourself and you published you. I said, look, put the numbers together. We’re gonna publish to the Patreons and you, but you couldn’t wait to tell the good news and you posted like your official whatever. It was like 690% return. It wasn’t quite 690% weren’t. So when the, uh, the audit team of Badgers came in and took a proper look, the actual gain in year two Badger me.
I delivered 93% return. That is soundly beating the market. That’s nearly doubling my portfolio. But Monkey delivered an incredible, essentially 380% gain in that year. [00:10:00] And if you compound them together, ’cause this is like a lifetime contest. This was round two. I hope we get like round 201 day, right? I’m
Krys: Well, right. That’s if the, yeah, that’s if the fancy Yeah. Uh, AI genetic companies come through, but carry on.
Luke: So if you come,
Krys: assume, let’s assume at least 25 more. Okay. 25 more rounds, but then.
Luke: 25 more out. So if you compound our return, so essentially like, you know, if you sort of followed us from day one and now we’re just starting year three, like a year, a weekend to year three, well Christoph, you’ve now delivered a compound return. Even though you had a losing first year, your killer second year, you’ve delivered a, a cagr, a compound annual growth of over 80%, 80.3%.
And even though you whipped my ass, I’ve still delivered a two like the, a compound return of essentially [00:11:00] 66%. So these are both like wildly killing the market. Now we’re gonna, it’s, we’re gonna have a down year, one day. Right. And maybe it was looking like that was gonna come just days ago, but who knows where this week’s takes us.
Um, we’re gonna have a, we’re gonna, you know, we’re gonna fail to beat the market one year, I’m sure. But right now we are well ahead and this is like a lifetime game. We’re trying to use King of the Jungle to show you how you can compound your returns, beat the market year after year, and in the long run, generate incredible wealth.
Krys: Amen. And hallelujah badger. Can I, can I, uh, um, ask for some, some mercy and forgiveness and maybe a little explanation, uh, of what monkey thinks happened? Uh, with, with his initial calculations, I actually used, uh, the good, the good AI bots to try to figure out, you know, on the Google sheet, like what the proper formula should be.[00:12:00]
And it actually made rational sense to me ’cause it was subtracting the cash from, uh, the totals, total gains. But somehow the final numbers just didn’t. They were just much higher. But I think the reason they were so inflated overall, tell me if this is right, is that those initial huge gains included the cash we were adding.
So from the base to where we ended up, those were the, the, the high numbers. But you can’t call a gain simply adding cash. So that was monkey’s mistake, correct.
Luke: Yeah. Yeah. Like the way you should really calculate your gain on a portfolio is like, say, say for this one year period, just like you, you, one year of a long journey. Well, if you wanna look at your one year return, it’s like how much money do you have at the start? You need to consider how much new money you added.
And like the time value of money, like a $200 added in the first month is [00:13:00] more impactful than $200 added in the last month. And there is a, there’s a simple formula we’ve used to calculate out that called the simple deets method. Um, and then, and then you look at like, you’re starting your finish point and then that’s how you work out your percentage gain
Krys: Okay, now
Luke: you cut it, you kick my ass.
Krys: right? Correct. Now I have, I have some bad news for you too. Uh, I hate to break it to you, buddy, but the beatings will continue until morale improves. But I was, I was, I was monkey was eyeing his, uh, king of the jungle portfolio, you know, from where we’re at. And unless Badger makes some significant changes in his own strategy, I think monkey’s going to gonna bring in the Banana trophy again from 2005 to 2006.
Luke: Hey, look, I, let me just clear, right, I, you won, no, no argument you won. I am [00:14:00] not unhappy with my re my returns this year in any way. Uh, so you can win year after year if I can stick to like a 60% cagr, right? Nobody lost.
Krys: Right now. So a couple, we just need to put some knots and finishing touches on this because this is a real important piece of our community. Uh, so I have a couple questions that let’s work through live on the air. One is, when is my lobster dinner? Lobster champagne dinner. Like, how, uh, are you gonna, are the lobsters gonna be delivered to monkeys front door?
Does he have to go out on some boat and catch ’em himself? And you cook ’em? Like, how, how are we gonna handle the, the, uh, the, the prize?
Luke: will, I’ll, I’ll do it in exactly the same way you handled, uh, the lobster dinner that I won, which was I’d organize and do everything myself and I think even pay for it myself. Um,
Krys: Okay, but you took, but you took the picture right?
Luke: I took the photo.
Krys: Okay, [00:15:00] so I’ll, I’ll, I’ll do all that and I’ll take a picture of me eating lobster butter sauce all over my face. Okay. Excellent. Two, uh, I think we should run the poll about, uh, for our Patreon community who they think will win win round three based on where we are now. ’cause it’s a fascinating, fascinating moment, right?
I mean, our portfolios are still quite, quite different in terms of the, the strategy, right? And especially after such huge run up, uh, there’s an interesting case to be made, why Badgers portfolio will outperform monkeys and why monkeys will outperform badgers. So let’s do that on the Paton next, right.
Just see what the, what the jungle thinks. But maybe most fascinatingly importantly, we’re getting the third contestant. This year, and that is our Wall Street Wildlife community, uh, itself. We are in the [00:16:00] middle of nominating companies and then voting as a community, which of those companies will go into year one of the Wall Street Wildlife Beastie portfolio?
Luke: Now, even if you’re not in the Patreon, we do you think I could, can we take two minutes and can I give an example of some of the fantastic stock ideas that we’ve had submitted? And I pulled them together into a pretty scruffy deck to be honest. But, uh, if you, if you wanna get involved, the poll will be open when you hear this episode.
Um i’ve pulled together a bit of a scrappy deck, but this is, we have 16 very solid entries for the community portfolio and in year one, uh, we’re gonna be picking to start off with five of the 16.
So in no particular order, novo nor disk, the trade desk lemonade, Rubrik Abs, Viking Therapeutics, red [00:17:00] Violet credo, the real brokerage flow traders, Reddit Oddity on InsureTech, PayPal, edix of Roku and our community have kindly chipped in and they’ve shared a little thesis, their thesis on each of these stocks.
So if you wanna have your say and go in and vote, and if you voting, you get like two options, two points for your first option, uh, one point for your second. Yeah. And then the top five stocks are gonna get picked for the king of the jungle, and they’re gonna end up as the starting point for the community portfolio.
So hopefully that gets our community portfolio off the ground with a bag.
Krys: Yeah. What I love about this badge is we talked about this, I think maybe last week, uh, wisdom of the crowd’s phenomena, and it’s very bizarre because it’s contradictory in some ways. If you have domain expertise in the market, you can actually take advantage [00:18:00] of, uh, arbitrage, or not arbitrage, that’s not the right word, but a discrepancy between that perceived value and actual value.
Right? But on the other hand, it’s been a proven, uh, I don’t, I don’t know what, what to call, it’s not a scientific fact, but a, a proven discovery that if you have a big jar of jelly beans, right, and you ask some mathematicians how many jelly beans are in this jar, they’re not gonna get it right as often as if you poll, you know, a hundred people and take the average of the poll and it’s the a hundred people, that will be more accurate wisdom of the crowd’s phenomenon.
I love this idea. Um, and the quality of our, uh, of the submissions. Lies predominantly on the fact that we’re kind of being insistent. Like, you’re not just gonna name drop tickers. You’re, you’re going to, you’re gonna give us your thesis and because we’re affiliates of fiscal ai, you know you’re gonna use that tool.
We’re teaching all our community [00:19:00] members to get comfortable using that, and you’re gonna make us some pretty graphs and charts that tell a really compelling story, uh, visually. And that’s what we’re getting from the maj majority of our pitches. Fantastic.
Luke: It is really good. It’s really good. And, uh, we’ll be, you know, we’ll have more submissions every month. We’re gonna, our Patreon community is gonna nominate their favorite stocks. We’ll have another vote every month, and we’re gonna buy the winning stock each month. So I guess we’re gonna start with five.
We’re gonna add like another 11 that’s a pretty decent shape portfolio, 16 or so stocks by the end of the year. Um, and as you say, wisdom of the crowds, like it’s primed with that set up to beat both of us. So. Keen to see how our community performs.
Krys: Yeah. Oh, two more things, you know? ’cause what’s fun about being our own bosses, we get to do whatever we want, right? So we still sort of, uh, coming up with the rules and the structures. I had an idea badge and, and I meant to tell you this, uh, just in our private chat, I thought. [00:20:00] Um, there should be one rule about say, double dipping in companies, you know, like, uh, so they encourages original companies and original research rather than say duplicates.
But what’s interesting is that you, um, you bought a STS after I had in my portfolio and I thought, you know, that’s, that’s actually, you know, confirmation and it’s good that, you know, we both see things in the same way. That’s great. Uh, but I, I think we should put, uh, here’s my suggestion. Uh, each portfolio is allowed one duplicate company.
So that for example, uh, uh, because that shows conviction, right? Like, again, that that’s great, but no more than one or maybe two, whatever we get to decide on that. So in theory, just between me and you, I could still, for example, I’d still be able to say, buy Google, right? Even though you have it. But that would be my one.
I get to cheat, I get to scrounge from [00:21:00] Badger’s portfolio. Uh, and that came to mind because a couple of these initial, uh, wrecks, I think there’s a couple that we, uh, three that we already own. No, you Novo I own Edix and PayPal, and so it’s interesting. It’s a, it’s a little bit of a wrinkle. What do you think?
Luke: I think let’s play by here. I think there shouldn’t be any hard rules. Let’s let our community do whatever they wanna do. And if, like, say if I won King of the Jungle one year, pretty much on the back of a STS, well. You know, it’s a bit of a hollow victory, right? ’cause it was your idea originally. In fact, it was our community’s idea.
It was Steven’s idea. So, um, and if you win with like Google, uh, then like the same, you know, I’ll make you eat a bit of humble pie as you take the trophy. So let’s wing it. Let’s see how it goes. Let’s see how it goes.
Krys: All right. So maybe the takeaway is, uh, we, it is a competition and we want, we want to bring in the top results. We wanna be the top gorilla. [00:22:00] You’re, it’s hard to do that if you’re replicating things, but, but timing matters. So that, that’s the other thing. I bought A-A-S-T-S, for example, much cheaper than you did, and so I got more shares.
So even though we both own it, sometimes say somebody, if they bought Novo now and they’re right, that’s a much better entry pick than say, three months ago, whatever, right? So in that sense, uh, you’re right. Uh, artificial limits might be artificial, but we really do want to encourage original ideas and suggestions or at least angles on it.
So let’s see how the, how the guidelines shape up.
Luke: and it’s worth a bit more than bragging rights that we are gonna attach some. Prizes, which might be swag, might be shout outs, might be a whole bunch of other stuff, if particularly to like folk who nominated an idea that went on to deliver like the, the greatest element of the gains for the community portfolio.[00:23:00]
But we’re also gonna reward folk who seem to vote most effectively, like will be looking back at all the votes at the end of the year and with a bit of Google food that the Badger audit team will try and figure out later. Uh, we got all the data to do it and we’ll see who basically was like, voted for the biggest winners and, uh, the, whoever used their vote most effectively month after month.
There’ll be some prizes there too. And if, again, like if you’re on the YouTubes and you wanna get involved in the voting and just be kind of be part of the fun, go check out Wall Street wildlife.com, join the community, and then your vote will count.
Krys: Yes. Badger, one more rule that maybe is the most important of them all. I’m sorry for leaving. Not, I’m sorry for leaving for last. Most important for last. Please keep in mind that the way we decided to do this is that I’m gonna actually buy these, uh, community stocks in my Robinhood account because Robinhood now made it very easy to just add a new [00:24:00] account.
It’s, it’s actually brilliant. So monkey will be depositing $500 at the initial, once we get the first five winners right into the portfolio, which makes it more than clear and obvious badge to, to monkey that. The other rule to begin with is under no circumstances must the community, the Wall Street Wildlife community nominate Greg’s sausages as one of their initial stocks.
Because if monkey were forced to buy Greg’s sausages in his Robinhood account. Uh, the, the universe might explode or some bad thing would happen, and we just can’t have that. So,
Luke: Which are the crowds, right? If those, if those sausages look sufficiently like jelly beans, they’re gonna get voted up
Krys: or maybe directly to our Patreon community or, or our YouTubers, if you really do wanna spite [00:25:00] your, your, your pal, your humble pal monkey, then go ahead, go v, go V for Greg’s, and then see what happens.
Luke: anyway. Ignore that. Pick the vote, like nominate and vote for the things you think are gonna beat the market most soundly. Uh. Really like over the 20 year term, but we’re gonna judge the scores at the end of year one as we go like year by year.
Krys: Okay. All right. Badge, uh, shall we move on?
Luke: Yeah. Now you said something interesting there that I think is a good segue ’cause you talked about Novo Nordisk and like entry points, and you’re right, like I bought Novo Nordisk in my retirement portfolio and in King of Jungle portfolio and the stock is down from there. I’m still very happy about that.
I actually added to it in my retirement portfolio fairly recently. Uh, and your point was good that like valuations and entry points do matter. And as a long term investor, I kind of, I used to poo poo this stuff and just say, well, look, I’m, you know, I just wanna, I wanna be an owner of this thing. But [00:26:00] it does make sense to use short term technical indicators to just, you know, if you know you wanna buy this thing in the next month.
You know, maybe you try and find the right day or the right hour of the day to get into it. So you’re gonna give us a bit of a masterclass on one of your favorite tools, which is Trading View.
Krys: Okay. Yeah, it’s actually less a masterclass on trading view and more about, uh, where. Long-term investors need to start. So listen up. Listen up. Beasties, uh, I’m gonna take the long route here. Just establish the proper context. Let me read, uh, the question that came our way, monkey. I know that a lot of technical analysis is done using Trading View.
Is there a quick and easy filter that you’d recommend to immediately get a rough idea of support and resistance to get those layouts you often share? Okay. Uh, warning sign. Warning sign. And this speaks to, to, to the [00:27:00] common critique of, of traders from the perspective of long-term investors. It is incredibly easy and tempting for anybody that starts doing this stuff to immediately start.
Clogging charts with all of the, the, the patterns and the lines and the, and the Fugazi Fugazi. You know what I mean? And I am deliberately going to say, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. We’re gonna start with the fundamental thing you need to do. And it requires basically nothing. It really requires very little. So down the road, I will provide more layers and more fancy gizmos, but not Now here’s the, here’s the the first thing you need to learn to do as an investor. Recognize what game you’re playing. You’ve heard me say that endlessly correct [00:28:00] in this moment. I’m speaking from, from the perspective of somebody that is investing in the company. So they are not buying it to swim, trade it. They’re not buying it today. Trade. They’re certainly not buying it to scalp. It.
Scalping means like sometimes exits within minutes or seconds. Right? That’s, that’s, you know, none of that, right? You actually did your dd you understand the company and you wanna buy it. That’s the context, right? The very.
Luke: good, that’s a good framing. ’cause you can use these tools and this mindset. In both of these ways? Well, again, one where like a lot of the guys on Reddit or true short-term traders, they don’t, they don’t even care what the company does. They’ve got no interest in the business model.
They’re just looking at like price, essentially. Like the price and a bunch of other stuff are moving averages. And they’re trying to like, they, they win in their mind, I [00:29:00] suppose if they’re say long, ’cause they might be long or short. If they’re long, they’re trying to buy it for let’s say 10 bucks and they’re trying to sell it for 15 bucks and then they’re out, like they made their 50% profit and they wanna do that over like a short enough period of time that they can keep like recycling that money.
Um, but if you’re a long-term investor, like you might use these tools to find when to buy, but your intention is still to be then at that point become a long-term holder. You’re trying to turn $10 into $10,000 over like a long period of time.
Krys: right. Okay, so I’m gonna introduce two, two key ideas. First, number one, before you use anything that you would consider, uh, uh, fancy, all you need to do is open up a stock chart. I use Trading View because it’s just the most slick platform for this kind of stuff. It’s a perfect compliment with, uh, fiscal ai, by the way, like those are the tools like fiscal AI for [00:30:00] research, trading view for, uh, looking at the mechanics, right? All you need to do is put it on the monthly view. I’m gonna go deeper into the different views and what they’re used for, the different time zones, but on the monthly view badge. You see very clearly just using your eyes. One fundamental thing is the company over the many months, so usually you’re now looking at years, is the company’s price gone up? Has it gone down or is it gone sideways? And it’s just incredibly clear. Okay, so badge, you’re looking at this, uh, chart, correct? Uh, of Global Water Resources. It’s a company. I have no idea what they do. I don’t care. But this is, this is just a, a perfect example of, um, the first step. Looking, Looking, at this chart, just visually [00:31:00] from the beginning, uh, of the candlesticks to where this photo was taken, uh, late October, mid-October, how would you describe the direction of the price?
Luke: so I guess, I guess if we are looking, well, okay, so this, so this stock was kind of doing some stuff and it started to decline between, say, on the picture you got like November through to about early April, and it looked like it’d been a massive down, and then it took like a, it dropped off a cliff and it seemed like it was trading like a much lower level, like 10.
Dollars and then just in, as the image was taken, like I guess a few days or weeks before that, it suddenly jumped back up to like its previous kind of range.
Krys: Right. Okay. So I, exactly. I would say in short that the movement here is, is down for the first half of the picture approximately, [00:32:00] then sideways, and it ends with a very big, uh, massive up. So momentum wise, uh, if we, if we actually disbar that very last, uh, jump, I would say the momentum is, is down in general, uh, down and now, down and sideways.
So first important point is only knowing that I would not be tempted to invest in this. Why? Because going with momentum is, is easier than fighting it. So that’s 0.1. And that’s visible here, right
now.
Luke: And you, because I, again, this is something I always used to like poo poo. And just say like, the past doesn’t predict the future, but you said something on the Patreon when you were fielding this question just like 24 hours ago. And it made me go, actually, no, you’re right. There is, there is actually something to this.
It’s not just like [00:33:00] magic. And I think your point was like the institutional investors, they, they trade with momentum. So if you’ve got like a large part of the market that is gonna follow, like stocks that are ascending and buy into them and sell stocks that are on a down, well that’s like a self-reinforcing mechanism.
So, you know, even notwithstanding everything else, like I don’t, I don’t like to use this stuff because I like to look at the business fundamentals, but if you put all that stuff aside and you’re just looking at like the picture, there is actually a good rationale for why things will typically move in the same direction that they’re going.
Krys: Yeah. And uh. To add to that badge? I’ll say it more directly and to the point what retail investors don’t actually understand, or maybe it’s not, they don’t understand, they don’t feel, is that the vast majority of volume of trading every day is done by robots and quant [00:34:00] shops. So it’s literally, uh, call it software programs that are reacting to price movements that have nothing to do with anything besides price and these complicated algorithms and patterns.
And so this is the information that the quantum robots are using. And so from, you know, from that perspective, nothing else matters, but you know the, how the allegations are gonna play against each other. Anyhow, for our purposes, badge. This is, uh, uh, unin. This is mostly, you don’t wanna enter this company right from just the way the movement is going.
But here’s lesson two, and this is returning to the initial question. Something happened here that was worth noting, uh, and I already sort of did the work for you or for our viewers so you could see it clearly. [00:35:00] you see that blue line
in the, basically in the middle? Right. That is essentially the only line you need to learn how to draw for yourself, and you do not need any tools. This is, this is why I’m, I’m kind of answering and not answering our paton’s question because this is something you do with your eyes and it’s not that hard. Do you see that during that, that phase that was kind of the. On the left half of the chart that was basically going kind of up and down, but essentially downwards that there are 1, 2, 3, about 4, 5, 6 points where the lowest price hits that blue line and then goes back above it, and then it hits that blue line again, goes back above it, hits that blue line again, and goes back above it.
Luke: Yeah,
Krys: In that instance, that is called support because [00:36:00] if you think about it from the quant way, any, it seems like historically, anytime it touched that price, buyers came in the pro, or put it this way, the robots were programmed to start buying more as soon as it hit that that point. Right. So makes sense.
Called support. Right. Then follow me on this at one point, kind of halfway down this chart, uh, what is that like late March, between March and April? Right on this graphic. All of a sudden call it a bad thing happens. Right? Let’s call it fundamental wise. This is global water resources, somebody pooed in the water, right?
Luke: if we, if we look at the, if we look at the chart, right, uh, it’s probably like a quarterly earnings because. Like every three months, US companies issue like new set of fundamentals and that causes everybody to kind of, you know, do their due diligence again and revalue the company again based on latest earnings.[00:37:00]
Krys: Yeah. And but before, exactly before our conversation, it could have been anything. But fundamentally something changed, right? And something that was bad, right? So all of a sudden, that moment where, where the bad thing happened, we broke that support line, that blue line, right? And notice this is what’s fascinating, is that even without knowing why.
For the remaining, uh, over, uh, for the remaining months or weeks, uh, the price went sideways and then in a couple of moments it approached that blue line, literally touched it. This is the, this is the kind of like when technical people say, look, this is not coincidence. There’s that one point on this line July something where the highest price literally touches the blue line and then goes back down. So then it stays below the line, [00:38:00] and then we get to the very last, uh, candlestick at the end. But you can basically see this chart is divided into two halves. The times the price was above the line and the times it was below the line. And that is called the support slash resistance line, right? Think of it this way, uh, think of it this way. That line is like a magnet. The algos are drawn naturally over time to that line. And depending on the fundamentals, they will continue, call it testing that line, right? So if you are a trader, I mean, I’m sorry. If you’re thinking of owning this thing and you could see that, that it’s, there’s not enough, call it good m to to say break that line, then you don’t want to buy in because there’s not gonna be enough juice to kind of break past it.
And this is why I picked this, this [00:39:00] photo, what happens now? Uh, whatever was October, right? We see that now a good thing happened, right? A good thing happened and we’re back exactly at that line again. So if I’m now thinking of owning this thing, because I’ve done my due diligence. I am not going to buy yet.
I don’t actually know what happened. We could probably call up the chart and figure out, right, whether it’s now above or below the line, but we don’t need that for educational purposes. If I’m thinking of buying this right now, I’m asking myself one question. When it hit that line, did it then go back down below?
Or did it actually break that line and go above If it went below, I’m now not buying it still because nothing about the momentum changed. That line is still resistance. It still doesn’t have enough juice to break. But if the, the fundamentals were good enough and it broke [00:40:00] that line, and one of those candlesticks now closed above that line, that is when you enter, because that support line, I’m sorry, that resistance line in technical trading terms became support.
So that’s, so TLDR you gotta, you gotta do two things. Get on the monthly view, see the momentum direction. Two, all you have to do is train yourself to draw one of these lines, and you do it by literally looking at where the candlesticks touch you draw your line, and then you wait. Then you exercise patience, and you get to this moment where it gets tested.
If it breaks, then that’s your go. If it goes below, that’s your not yet signal. How’s that sound? Right. Uh, I mean this is a little bit of, uh, where the art comes into it. It a lot depends on your understanding of the company, and obviously, depending on the frame you [00:41:00] wanna use, the more information you have, meaning the more data points, meaning the longer the time zone, the more sturdy that value, you know, is worth.
If you’re, if you’re long-term investor and, and resistance breaks into support, finally after, call it four years, that is really, really valuable data. But if you are doing more of the short-term thing and you’re only looking at a couple of weeks, that could be just more short-term trading gains and you can’t, you know, that signal is nowhere close as valuable as the zoomed out picture.
But I’m glad you asked that because we’re gonna do round two of this exercise this time. We’re gonna go live and I’m going to show you another chart. This one is very, um, important for our community ’cause it’s one we’re discussing and where I did a little charting stuff, uh, on my own. And I’m gonna ask you to tell me what you see here.
[00:42:00] And we’re gonna see how good badger is with crayons. Badger plays with crayons. Okay. Slow pop. Quiz badge. Here’s how I, here’s how, uh, I thought I would ask you this question. Uh, can you see the numbers? Okay. This is an actual live view of my trading view watch list. So all monkeys companies that he’s looking at are, you know, the tickers are bouncing up and down, but the chart itself is of Novo Nordisk, right?
Luke: I can do that. Yep. Yep.
Krys: And, uh, I want you to, as best as possible, zoom in so you could kind of see, uh, as finely as you can. I want you, I’m, I, I’m, here’s what I’m asking you to do. Draw for me two lines. So this is just visually, this is, this is, again, this is not more complicated than using your eyes. And if you had to [00:43:00] draw two important lines of that support resistance, um, levels, where might you draw them?
Luke: Alright, There’s actually three. There’s actually three you could draw, I think, pretty easily, but, uh,
so this, okay for one mate, this is not the weekly view, which you talked about. ’cause I can see this goes back to like 2014.
Krys: oh, this is the, this is the monthly view, right? So I’m glad you, you mentioned that this is right. This is, you’re looking at the price history of Novo Nordisk for basically the last 10 years.
So this is for long-term investors, which are that, that’s our gang. This is the chart that I would highly encourage everyone thinking about by Novo, to, to look at and draw these two lines or three depending where, where might you put, uh, start, actually start in the, call it the back half of the timeline badge.
So from get I get it, I get it. I get it. Yeah. Alright. [00:44:00] So like if you’re on the YouTubes, you might not be able to read like the little numbers, so apologies for that. But I, I guess over this 10 year view, there’s, it feels like, you know, where it kind of bounced up and down, is that like thir 28 to 32 bucks, something like that?
Luke: That, yeah, that kind of where you are now. Yeah, exactly. exactly right. If I’m drawing a line here,
Mm-hmm.
Krys: this is, this is where I would do it, right? Oops. Damnit. My crayons aren’t working. But you see the white line right here?
Luke: Sorry. Just gonna say quick edit. You’re, when you face that way, you’re pointing away from the mic. We can’t hear you.
Krys: Oh, oops. Uh. Here we go. There we go. I added, that’s where I would make the first line. See that new yellow line
Luke: Yeah.
Krys: right here? You could see that at the beginning, all of these months, right? It was touching it and going below, touching it and going below, right? So somebody thinking of buying Novo around here, right?
Their [00:45:00] patients will be rewarded if they withheld, withheld, withheld because it kept trying to go above this line. And at every point it basically says, Nope, nope, nope. And then it goes back down, right? And then trades below that line for now several years, right? See that Now all of a sudden something happens here.
What is that? Uh, we’re talking about 2020, right?
Luke: COVID. That’s COVID. It’s 2020. That’s, uh, that’s the COVID pandemic. That’s like, Exactly yeah.
Krys: right. So it was right about here where you see my cursor right there, where on the monthly chart it finally broke that resistance line and that line became support. This would be your tell to, to after your due diligence, after your fundamental understanding. This is when you buy right here.
Right. And turns out after this candlestick, now we’re going way, way, way, way up. Right. And now, right. And then now your [00:46:00] golden, because that line did its job. Right. Okay, let’s keep doing this, but add one more, uh, add one more line that’s now more relevant to today. Where might you put that line?
Luke: Yes, I think I can see what you are hinting at. So if we, if we go from, come down a bit like early 2022, it looks like it broke your yellow line and then it kind of found like a new like range there. Yeah. That little section.
Krys: Yep, Which we are now back into today. So it’s kind of come to go and draw like another line somewhere around there.
Luke: Yeah.
Krys: yep. Exactly. This is, you could see, you could see, right. That. This, this box here doesn’t always need to be lines. It could be a box. This became like a, like a range in which the price touched this point here, right? And then kind of drifted towards it. But this is the line, right? This is the line that is the lowest price at which the [00:47:00] robots then said, Nope, we we’re, that’s as low as we’re gonna go, right?
So I’m gonna draw this line here. This is our second line, right? And of course the momentum took us hugely high up. So if you were looking to buy here, you have every technical green light imaginable, right? Because the momentum is straight and up and it’s not even confusing. That’s why this chart is great to look at.
There is zero confusion about whether you’re going with momentum here right now. It turns, and any investor basically deciding to buy here after the turn. Is now swinging against the current, right? And that shockingly, because this is a, what was a $400 billion company, right? Or higher, that momentum completely reversed.
So here you would be going against the current, obviously, right? So you would have to be saying to yourself, you know, more than the market because you’re in whatever you, you’re just that [00:48:00] smart or you’ve done your due diligence, right? But momentum takes us all the way down. All the way down. So it’s not a good time to buy.
And now this is why this is fascinating. We are now exactly at the point of the previous support line right here. And we see, see where my cursor is, is here. This is, I think when I first made this chart, uh, for Wall Street Wildlife, when we were talking about, you know, getting into Novo. And at this point I said, not yet.
Why? Because we got the touch, right? We got the touch. But, um, but that trend never really developed. So here actually was a, let me take that back here. Might’ve been like a decent point where you could say, if you trust your due diligence, it touched this line. You’re like, okay, you’re, you’re, you’re, you’re, you’re betting that the momentum is now reversing, right?
So if you believe in the company, this wasn’t a [00:49:00] bad, bad place to say, take an initial bite. That’s what I’ve done. Take an initial bite. But here where we see that, nope, that’s not it. It just didn’t, it. Um, it’s reversing now. So the real momentum did not change this. This was, let’s say, hopeful news that didn’t pan out, but it’s this moment here that now I’m really interested in because we’re back exactly at that line.
And if I’m thinking about investing in Novo, and this is the TLDR, I am going to wait. Right. I’m confident in my research. I get it. I wanna buy more shares here. But it’s not until we see what happens at this point that I’m gonna buy. Because if we break down below this line, the momentum still continues to be down.
You’ll be fighting the algos. You’re just, it’s gonna be the catching, falling knife phenomena, right? You’re not gonna beat, you’re [00:50:00] not gonna, your, your purchase of however many shares are not gonna overcome the algorithmic force that is down. But to the contrary, if we see this touch this line, and now the price starts bouncing above it, that’s where I would say, okay, now you can buy your initial, call it third or or quarter, right?
And monitor. And monitor. Because if it then starts drifting up again, now you keep buying. Now you could, you have more confidence that this support this. Will act as support and that things are actually turning momentum wise. Break down here. And we have a shot actually at drifting down, way down to maybe this next line.
’cause this is, this looks like it could be another line from, uh, history in my drift, down to 37 in
Luke: Well, let me, let me jump in ’cause I’m, I’m ki I’m sort of, I’m kind of reluctantly with you on this journey. [00:51:00] I sort of see something in this. It’s not, this is not something I ever intend to use as part of my own process. But I kind of see what you’re pointing at. But if you tell me that in say, you know, 20, 25, 26, that that bottom line you drew, like the $29 line yeah, this one. any relevance in any way today.
’cause that was like in your lang lingo, like a support line that was established back in what, 2015 through 2020 like this, this is not the same company now as it was then. And so in the, in the real world, if you take all the mystical stuff out, um, there is no reason why that what it did five, 10 years ago will have any bearing on the company today.
Krys: Right. So,
great. Uh, let me address that point. You’re, you’re absolutely right. Badge, because this is such a long view. We’re talking about a decade here. Uh, anything that happened like way, way, way before has less value collared or less waiting [00:52:00] than whatever the new levels are. So you’re absolutely right.
So, I mean, I’m talking about like a holistic picture, right? So yes, ignore those initial lines and we could just cut this chart in half and just look at, you know, let’s say the last four years. And that’s why the, the main thing I would say is look at the le it’s this level now, the 45, 40 level. That is the main line.
The one line you need to pay attention to having a, that deeper understanding of the company’s history. And, you know, that’s, that’s more, that’s just another data point, but yes, absolutely. You now weigh this line right here way more heavily. And let me finish this little school segment badge with one important, uh, I think behavioral tip.
We always, you and I always say that. Uh, to be a successful long-term investor, you need to cultivate the virtue of patience, right? [00:53:00] Patience is maybe the hardest thing, right? And it differentiates winners from losers in all kinds of ways. When you actually get used to doing this kind of thing and you stop thinking of it as you know, uh, and you don’t actually, let me put it this way, you don’t overcomplicate it by saying this is you.
Don’t start overlaying it with more mumbo jumbo, then all it’s asking you to do in a moment like this is be patient. Just wait a little bit longer and you will know whether the price is gonna keep going down or whether it’s gonna start going up. And when it, if it keeps going down, wait. Patience.
Patience, grasshopper. If it starts going up, yes, you’re gonna pay a little bit more, right? Because it started going up, but your risk goes down significantly. that’s kind of how really successful long-term investors do their business, right? [00:54:00] They’d rather buy a company that’s already excelling. It’s already demonstrating the goods, and yeah, you pay a little more, but you know, but now you’re, you’re, you’re reaping the ben benefit of excellence.
Same thing here. You want to wait until the momentum is more clearly on your side.
Luke: I’m not Okay. A call, call and all. And this is like another skill set you can overlay. ’cause ultimately you and I are long-term investors and we look at the fundamentals and let’s just, I mean, let’s not confuse anybody that we are, like tech technical trading guys. We are not, but, and you use this stuff as like an add-on to your long-term skillset.
Now there is a, you, you said there like successful long-term investors do this stuff Well, they, they don’t all do that. Some do and some successful long-term investors completely ignore this stuff. Right. Um, and like, I, I want maybe I want to sort of defend [00:55:00] just for a minute why I think it, I think it’s, you can completely ignore like the all this price action and all these charts and graphs and like what could, like a downside, what can go wrong?
Because if you are, if you’re not disciplined and you don’t have the experience born of like decades of doing the stuff, then your emotions are gonna take control. And so let me just give you an example. You know, say, you know, you say you drew your support lines and you’re like, okay, like I’m waiting for the, the momentum to turn.
And if you are really diligent to the, the sort of, the approach you just outlined, well. When you see enough on your weekly chart that you’re like, okay, or monthly chart, rather, you’re like, okay, now I can buy and then you buy, great. But if you’re not disciplined or you don’t really, you know, you don’t have the courage of your convictions of that full technical trading skillset and your long-term skillset, well, you might find that you sort of, you feel you’ve missed the bottom and you’re like, okay, [00:56:00] well it’s, it’s going up, but I’m just gonna wait for it to come back down so I can buy.
And this is a trap that newer investors fall into all the time, which is they try and they anchor on a particular price. They try and time the market and they try and sell. And then they, they hope they’re gonna rebuy. And if they miss like that, you know, one golden day or minute, whatever you’re looking where they didn’t catch like the very bottom, they just kind of never rebuy.
And so, I’m not saying it’s gonna happen to you every time, but if you, if that happens to you sometimes, well that’s how you miss. Like opportunities like Rocket Lab, like a year and a half ago, if you didn’t get in, it was down at like $3 for a little while. I was, I was just sort of buying and owning and adding and adding it between sort of three and four and five bucks.
Well, if you say it got to like $6 and you’re like, oh, I’m just gonna wait for it to get back to $5, and it never does. And that, you know, it was briefly like a $70 stock and it’s [00:57:00] now like a $50 stock and it’s gonna fluctuate wildly. But we’re probably, you know, barring like a very, very serious, like destruction of the company, we’re probably never gonna see $6 again.
Right. And you just miss like a life changing investment because it, you know, you’re quibbling over a couple of bucks when what you just wanna do, if you wanna keep it simple. I’m not, I’m not dissing everything you’ve just told us. I’m just saying you don’t have to do that. If you wanna keep it really simple, you find incredible world changing companies and you just kind of buy them.
Uh, almost, I’m not gonna, I’m gonna say at any price. I don’t mean at any price. ’cause something like Palantir is like an insanity level valuation, but you buy it at any reasonable price and then you just kind of sit back and ignore it for a decade.
Krys: Yeah, I, I think we’re talking about, you know, now we’re getting into advanced medium slash advanced level things, and there’s multiple skill sets that as you get better and better you can use simultaneously. So, depends on [00:58:00] what audience member we’re talking about. Right? I think for a beginner, I think you’re right.
If you wanna keep it as, as absolutely simple as you can and expand your timeline, then you say to yourself, timing doesn’t really matter to me because. I’m happy to wait 10 years. If you’re more in that medium advanced grade, you’ll, you’ll say, you know what I might do, I might break this purchase down into thirds.
And my first third is gonna be, let’s say now because I did my research, but then I’m gonna hold off on the second and third, third and try to go with the momentum. And if I miss it, then I already have a third. And I look at the chart again and sure, I missed 10 percentage points, but oh, reminder, now the momentum’s going the right way.
It’s time for the second, third, you know, so you gotta know yourself, of course. And you did mention that it is a question of discipline and it is a question of, uh, being patient. And I think all investors should cultivate those [00:59:00] attributes and, uh, but different gains for different people.
Luke: Yeah, it’s good. I’m glad you’ve, you know, let’s do this regularly. And I think it’s like, if you go back two episodes ago, I did a bit of a 15, 20 minutes on Intuitive Surgical where we actually looked at the fundamentals and we looked at. Some stuff in fiscal ai and we looked at like the quarterly earnings and now we’ve just had like a really nice session looking at the chart.
Like these are both interesting skill sets and we’re gonna talk about both of these things on Wall Street Wildlife in future episodes and when we get, um, you know, if we, if you’ve got a company you want us to get our teeth into, like let us know on the Patreons and from time to time we’ll try and do that.
Krys: Yeah. Fantastic. And as homework to our listeners, to return to the original question, ignore the fancy indicators. Ignore all that noise. For now, just learn to use your eyes and draw a couple of lines. That’s it that, I mean it. I, I swear to you, [01:00:00] this is what many professionals do. They’ve gone down all the, you know, crazy rabbit holes and they’re like, you know, for, for the fundamental view, all that’s all you need to do is draw like one or two lines and you’re good.
So, I hope this was useful, um, and I, I’m happy to do more. Like, as per your suggestion, badger enough, enough crayons. Put your crayons down buddy. Tell me about your latest purchase for the King of the Jungle portfolio. What are you
Luke: Yeah, lovely. Yeah, I bought, I bought in my retirement portfolio and King of the Jungle Uber, the transformation giant, like the transportation giant.
Krys: Oh.
Luke: I’ve heard this on my radar for quite some time and I just hadn’t. I hadn’t really looked at it properly as an investment. And actually, you know what blew my pants off.
Like we all think we know Uber. I didn’t realize actually in the uk, like you [01:01:00] guys have like DoorDash and stuff like that. In the US we don’t really have that stuff in the uk. Turns out we do. I didn’t realize. So in the Uber nap now. Okay. I always thought about Uber as being like, you know, transportation, get me somewhere. And I knew they did Uber Eats, which is like ordering food
from restaurants. They’ve also got like a whole like logistics thing in the app now. I had no idea it was there. I just never like scrolled far enough to the right of options. So you can get like, you know, if I wanna send like a set of dokey to you, I can send them in an Uber and it’s like cheaper than like a passenger in an Uber and I can get like my Uber driver to go to like my local supermarket or like wine store or hardware store and like just literally go and pick stuff off the shelves, fill the bag of stuff I’ve ordered.
And then they’ll get it to me like, you know, in half an hour. So, and you know, don’t get me wrong, you’re paying for that. Uh, there’s a whole bunch of fees that the platform earns, but I didn’t realize this even was a thing in London. So like that, [01:02:00] that kind of perked my ears up when I started doing my research.
The thing that actually caught my eye and why I looked at this properly was just a really interesting innovation story. And I think they just this really smart, like they’ve got this hordes of drivers who today are human drivers, like sat in cars, driving people around, but a lot of the time they’re just kind of sitting there waiting for like, their next ride.
And I just caught in the news like a month or two ago, Uber, and now having these like side gigs or like non-driving tasks for drivers, which might be like taking a photograph of like a menu and then translating it or doing other, um, like other sort of tasks they can do on their phone. Where they’re training AI or they’re doing, you like translations or they’re doing like various things.
Um, and then the driver can earn like a few bucks in their non-driving time. I think that’s really smart. Like leveraging, it’s like it’s good for Uber, it’s good for the [01:03:00] end user and it’s good for like the driver. They’re using their like dead time in some interesting way. If they wanna do that, it’s like optional.
So that just made me go, this is like a really innovative company. This is not just like, um, like, you know, a transport company. And so I started looking at it properly and then when I really started thinking about it over the weekend, well last week, um, so let me, let me share not so much my thesis because I’ve taken like a starter position in this for this like a less than a 1% allocation in my retirement portfolio.
So this is a bit like, you know, probably a bit less than my first third. Um, and I started to think about this and I want to kind of run this idea past you, but I’ve brought the stock anyway and it’s, it’s really. Like the major risk slash opportunity that faces Uber today because sure, they do logistics and they do restaurant delivery and everything else.
But the thing that’s really gonna change the trajectory of this company is autonomous vehicles when we take the [01:04:00] drivers out and it’s just like cars driving themselves around maybe doing food delivery or maybe moving passengers around. And so the big question for Uber I think is like, is this an opportunity or is this a threat?
And if we ignore Asia, which is like, you know, more than half the world, but let’s just put that aside. And we just think about essentially like, you know, Europe, the UK and North America and a bunch of other countries. Um, there are really only three autonomous, credible autonomous driving platforms at any scale today, which are Tesla Waymo owned by Alphabet and.
You know with, you may have, may not realize it, but Nvidia Drive, so Nvidia have like their own hardware stack software stack and that’s essentially like, that’s the software, the autonomous vehicle solution for pretty much everybody else like the BMWs and the Mercedes and the, all the other kind of western world manufacturers.
They’re all sticking [01:05:00] like Nvidia Drive in their cars. So, and there’s, sure there’s like hundreds of other tiny, tiny ones, but these are the three like it, it’s like the three giants really and Tesla, Waymo and Nvidia be meaning everybody else. So if we think about how Uber interoperate with those three, it’s actually a really interesting different story for all three and it could change quite a lot.
And depending on how this story plays out is going to determine like the future of Uber, the company, because they had a go at doing autonomous vehicles themselves and I think, well sadly, there was like a fatal accident I believe, and they’ve kind of retired that program. They now seem to be very much positioning themselves as like the platform that captures demand.
IE you know, it’s on hundreds of millions of smartphones, probably billions of smartphones. And it’s like if I want a ride as a ride as a rider, like I generally go to Uber, maybe Lyft in the [01:06:00] us, maybe Bolt or some other apps in the, in the UK or Europe. But like most people, where Uber exists, most people have Uber.
And they, I’m gonna ask you your Uber rating in a minute,
Krys: actually badge. Can may i, may I just comment 1, 1, 1 side bracket. Uh, just thought they’re my drunken, uh, uh, Austin Adventures, uh, two days ago. Uh, I’m a lift guy myself here in Austin. Uh, but uh, I went to, um, my buddy and I went to get the little scooters, you know, those little line, the little, you know, the little scooter things that people leave all around town.
Uh, and I did not realize, but that was through the Uber app. So. Um, and right, and, uh, because Waymo cars are now driverless here in Austin, they’re everywhere. I also tried to get a driverless car to pick us up through the Uber app, but for whatever reason, I think they lock, they’re not allowing many people to use them.
They’re allowing some. So I couldn’t get hail one of those, but [01:07:00] yes, the surprise for me, uh, and and may maybe similar way to you is, oh, Uber is actually the, the verb, right? You Uber, you don’t lift a ride, you Uber a ride, and that, that now means like 50 different kinds of things. So yes, you’re, you’re on point so far.
Luke: Yeah. Yeah. Very good. So, um, so let’s come back to this sort of key thing and how the market’s gonna evolve. Like if we just accept that Uber probably aren’t gonna launch their own platform again and they’re trying to become like the demand aggregator. So the one app that most people have on their phone and go to if they want go from A to B, rather than most people want needing to have like the Tesla app, the Waymo app, and then like the Nvidia app or maybe even like, you know, the Mercedes app and the BM BMW app and everything else.
Um, if we accept, and I, I, I, I accept that’s why I bought the company that probably the majority of people are gonna want to have like [01:08:00] one app maybe. No, no more than two. Um, and if they have two, one of those will almost certainly be Uber. Well they’ve already got distribution, so they’ve got hundreds of millions of miles demand. That these three companies are gonna want to service. The companies are actually providing the journeys. And so you’ve got these three different starting points today. You’ve got Tesla who are pretty committed to rolling out Robot Taxi and having their own in-house built app, which they’ve already built and deployed.
So they’re kind of off doing their own thing. You’ve got Waymo who are partnered directly with Uber and they’re using Uber to book Waymo’s. And I don’t think there’s a separate Waymo app maybe, unless you’re like an Alphabet employee. Most people are booking them through the platform. And as you said, it’s only like beta testing still, perhaps.
So probably not every, every possible passengers can use it. And then you’ve got Nvidia, and I don’t think there’s been a, like a definitive announcement, but it [01:09:00] very, it looks very much like, uh, like the Nvidia Drive platform is gonna piggyback with Uber and have that as the kind of portal so. You’ve got today, you’ve got kind of Nvidia in Waymo, in Tesla out.
Now here’s the question, right? Are if we believe there’s probably just gonna be this one app, like okay, maybe Tesla cars are nicer in general, like I get, I’m happy if I book a te a book, an Uber and it’s like a Tesla, I’m like, oh cool, I’ve got like a Tesla coming, not like some Honda Civic or whatever. Um, am I gonna be sort of happy enough and care enough that I only want a Tesla and I’m only gonna have like, go to the Tesla app to book my car?
’cause there are gonna be fewer cars available, certainly in like over, once the market’s established, I, you know, I can’t, not everyone wants to own a Tesla. So therefore, you know, Tesla will be less than half of the total market of like driven miles alongside Mercedes [01:10:00] and BMW and all the other hundreds manufacturers using Nvidia.
Um, so. Like I, I sort of feel like Tesla are probably not gonna cut their nose off to spite their face. They’re probably gonna have their own app and they’re gonna come inside like the Uber tent as well. ’cause you’ve got like a bunch of essentially like free demand there. And there’ll be some pricing agreement in the same way.
Like if in the same way as they’ve opened up the supercharger network to non Tesla vehicles, like they can maximize the CapEx and it means they can scale out the supercharger network faster. ’cause they’re earning income from like the other non Tesla manufacturers. So that’s like better for the Tesla ecosystem.
I think the same logic applies here because okay, if Tesla put their cars on the Uber network, there’ll be that much more demand so they can then scale out the cars faster so they’ll have more cars on the road. Like surely that is gonna be Musk’s logic once they’re out of this like pilot phase,
Krys: may I, may I comment or,
Luke: please. [01:11:00]
Krys: It’s, you, you named it actually, when you said, surely that must be Elon’s logic, right? And, and the whole time, I’m, I’m, you know, I’m, I’m, I’m listening to you talk. The first thought I had was, okay, we’re in this weird world now. Not weird. We’re at the stage now where companies like, say Google and Apple are in a sense of duopoly, but now they’re finding ways that they have to partner in order to go to the next level, right?
So in that sense, I think I’m buying what you’re selling, which is logically if we say there’s a duopoly here, you’re gonna have the Tesla world and then the, the Uber world. And it’s a big enough pie for two anyway. Right? So that’s maybe worth noting, right?
Luke: for sure.
Krys: Then I started thinking a little bit about, you know, another analogy, uh, our companies, you know, the, the, uh, starlink versus A STS, and that’s another way that there’s a, you know, [01:12:00] probably a duopoly exists and so forth, but it’s, when you said, you know, surely Elon’s logic is gonna be X and based on what you said, yes.
I would say logically, rationally, uh, that would be a pro to go forth with this investment because yeah, that’s what it looks like, right? Yeah. It’s what it looks like, right. But that Elon Musk factor where, where, when he goes for something, right? He’s based on everything I understand from the SpaceX Starling case, right?
He’s willing, he’s going to, he’s so, call it maniacal in a. Wanting to, you know, achieve victory sort of at all costs. And he has obviously the capital base and the smarts and all that. I, I just don’t [01:13:00] know how well I would sleep at night knowing that, that my counterparty here is the one guy that might even sabotage things or, you know, like go be some weird cost leader lost thing the way, you know, Bezos sort of slowly defeated all of the opponents by undercutting them over and over across years and years. And I, uh, it’s like I’m, I think I’m trying to say like anybody but Musk, if it was anybody but Musk on the other side, I’m like, yes, I get it. I’m
in for this duopoly vision, Okay. Badge. Uh, yeah. Um, I hear you. I think this is, uh, this is an interesting moment I see in, in, in this moment. I see both the tremendous upside, obviously. Uh, and I’m sorry. Uh, I can’t quite get past my own initial. Worry about the Musk Wild card. And so what I’m gonna [01:14:00] do is take your feedback seriously.
I’m gonna poke around the investment thesis some more. Hopefully our Patreon, jungle Cats and, and Kathy Bars will, will tell us their views. Uh, I’m gonna probably call up a chart and just see what, what that says. Add some voodoo in there and let’s check back in, in, uh, in a couple months time and see how this is shaping up.
But thanks for, thanks from bringing this to our attention and good luck since it’s an official position for you. Now,
Luke: Yeah. Awesome. Awesome. I I definitely welcome some. A technical trading view. ’cause as I said, this is like a starter position for me. So it’s pretty sort of small in the grand scheme of things. And I do want to add to this. So yeah, looking for your charting expertise to tell me if it’s a good time to add.
Krys: Fantastic. It’s just that, dammit, it’s, I don’t trust Musk anymore. I just told in the business, you know, in that business sense, I don’t, you know, even if I, I’m a Tesla shareholder, I’m like, oh my God, I don’t know what this guy’s really up [01:15:00] to. So
Luke: Very fair, very fair. Hey, before we wrap up today, I just wanna acknowledge, so we just crossed 4,000 YouTube subscribers, so if you’re on the YouTubes, thank you very much for being part of that journey. Uh, it’s going, going really well and we’ve got, got well over a thousand listeners on like Spotify and the other podcast platforms, plus our most important audience now, nearly 300 Patreons.
So, uh, yeah, this is turning into something.
Krys: yeah, we’re doing something badge. All those acorns and bananas are finally adding up. So, yeah, no, that’s, that’s fantastic. And, and we’re having the ball and I think we’re legitimately. Helping, uh, people and, and succeeding in our mission, which is, which is to really emphasize the fundamental principles, uh, the kinds of thinking you should be doing, rather than merely saying, buy this or don’t buy that.
That’s like a side, you know, putting our, [01:16:00] our bananas where our mouths are kind of thing to, to show you that we we’re eating our own cooking, but it’s the principles in the community really that we’re, we’re growing and fostering, and it’s obviously, uh, taken off. So yes, thank you. And, and good job. Us. Yeah.
Woo. Whoa. Next, next, next, uh, next milestone is 5K baby. 5K.
Luke: Yeah, it’s coming quick. It’s good. We’re gonna get, we’re gonna hit like 5,000 subscribers in the next couple of weeks. I think it’s awesome. You, you know, and one thing I wanna say though, like if you’re listening to this, ’cause I was almost like, ha I was, I was almost excited in a weird way. ’cause like Thursday, Friday last week, the market today is the 10th of November.
Like last week the market started to take a bit of a downturn. We had like two down days and it looked like, you know, maybe that’s the beginning of the end for like this growth cycle we’ve been in for quite a long time. And obviously I’m like kicking myself ’cause I probably should have sold a bit more.
I did, I have started raising cash, but I probably, you know, could always do a bit more. Um, but at the same [01:17:00] time I was quite excited over the weekend ’cause I’m like, well this is actually where the podcast is gonna prove itself. ’cause we are here for the long term and we are gonna be investing alongside you guys through the next couple of market cycles.
Like every cycle is like five plus years. We are gonna be here. Losing money alongside you when the market goes south. And we’re gonna navigate that as best we can and hopefully, you know, we can still afford to like pay the electricity bill and we can still keep producing the podcast. Um, and like it’s real, it’s legit.
Like this is, this is exclusively how I fund my life. And Christophe, you know, you’re a professor but your investments are a very material part of your own like wealth and future. So this shit is real for us and we’re gonna lose money alongside you and we’re gonna navigate our way through that pain.
Dunno when it’s gonna start. It looks like it didn’t start because today is Monday and it looks like the market on its way back up ’cause like there’s [01:18:00] a $2,000 stim being paid and God knows like other random like puppet things to try and keep the market afloat. Dunno how long that can go on, but it’s like the music still seems to be playing right now.
Krys: That’s right, and one way you’ll know is that next year’s winner of the uh, top banana trophy. We’re going to, we’re going to need to decide if things went well. Maybe we’ll upgrade this to a, a slightly less plasticy, bigger version. Or, uh, if things go down, maybe, maybe this too is a little too extravagant.
So, uh, time will tell. But yeah, we’re very much in this, in this with you.
Luke: Very good. Well, that was a blockbuster episode. We’ve got a whole bunch of stuff we didn’t get to. We’re pushing it to next week. But Christophe, are you ready to become a beast of an investor?
Krys: Look at the hat. I’m wearing badge. What’s it say? What’s it say?
Luke: It says
Krys: Well, there you go. There’s your answer.
[01:19:00]
